User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday November 24, 2004 - 18:17:22 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: FX Market Be Thankful The Dollar Is A Turkey

FX Market Be Thankful The Dollar Is A Turkey

Thanksgiving is a US holiday for sure (Canada has one in October). But this year it is a day that a larger global audience should be celebrating. The currency market should be thankful. Thankful that the market has come back from a rather dreadful year for the buy side after a promising Q1. In nearly eight weeks the dollar index has fallen nearly 6% to a nine-year low. Euro/dollar is up over 7%. Dollar/yen is down almost 8%. Dollar/Canada is down over 6% (down nearly 16% from the May high). The fall harvest in FX has been nothing short of miraculous and it should buoy buyside returns for the year. Moreover, there is a strong sense that the move lower in the dollar will persist well into 2005. Currencies are once again sexy. Even the diabolical Matt Drudge finds the headlines too enticing to ignore: "Euro Hits Another New Record Low". Business Week called me earlier this week for a dollar story...magazine headline can't be far off. Top sirens are sounding, no? No as in no. This time the pedestrian view will prevail for the foreseeable future. An orderly dollar decline with intermittent short cover bounces should be with us through at least the first half of 2005. FX should be the asset class that yields the highest returns for macro hedge funds for the next few quarters. Stocks more or less have had their run and the Fed is likely to wring out spread trades as it continues to lift short term rates and low inflation and Asian currency manipulation combines to keep long-term rates in check.

So whom should we thank on Thursday? Alan Greenspan for starters. We can thank him for telling investors and speculators it is okay to be worried about the record US current account deficit. And it is appropriate to expect pressure on the currency in absence of other adjustment measures liken US budget deficit reduction. So the weak dollar structural story went from the land of cranks to mainstream thinking.

We should also give thanks to John Snow. In spite of his name, the Treasury Secretary is doing nothing to prevent the dollar from melting. And in spite of strong dollar rhetoric, Snow and the Bush administration generally are quite happy to see an orderly dollar decline to fertilize external support for us growth. The US government has single engine fatigue...the US is tired of being the sole engine for growth in G7. Encouraging a market-based solution to the US trade gap is a potential windfall for investors and speculators short dollars.

And we should thank reserve managers...non-G7 central banks that are increasing euro exposure and decreasing dollar exposure in fairly massive currency portfolios. China has about $500bln in foreign currency and gold, and the majority of these holdings are dollars (close to 80%). Taiwan has about $240bln. South Korea about $185bln. Hong Kong about $120bln. Singapore about $105bln. India about $120bln. Russia about $113bln. This crew of central banks have been significant euro buyers and dollar sellers as they manage their collectively huge exposure to dollar-denominated assets. This crowd is doing exactly what Greenspan said is rational. They too have determined that the US current account expansion is in unchartered water and at risk of capsizing. The lifejacket here is diversification. And it is the very presence of these central banks that has allowed the market to ignore otherwise bullish cyclical or economic fundamentals for the dollar and focus on the impossible to measure (contemporaneously) structural adjustment.

Until G7 gets its act together (joint intervention), the decline in the dollar will continue. The pace of decline will accelerate and decelerate as in any healthy trend. There will be setbacks as well which any one-way market experiences...ask any oil trader. But the barn doors are open and for the time being it will pay to ignore the cyclical themes that support the dollar (the parachute for the descent) and ride the structural shifts that suggest a more seismic realignment in exchange rates.

Just maybe in 12 months time we will be thanking China too for revaluing the yuan.

David Gilmore


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105