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Thursday August 28, 2008 - 19:16:13 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (28 August 2008)

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4670 level and was capped around the $1.4810 level.  Data released in the U.S. today saw Q2 gross domestic product growth of an annualized 3.3%, above the 2.7% forecast.  The gains were attributable to exports growth and increased consumer spending.  Also, the core personal consumption expenditures price index was unchanged at 2.1%, still above the Federal Reserve’s implied upper comfort zone of 2.0%.  Overall inflation remained unchanged at 4.2% in Q2.  Other data saw weekly jobless claims fall 10,000 to 425,000 while continuing jobless claims expanded 64,000 to 3.423 million, its highest level since November 2003.  In eurozone news, the EMU-15 July M3 money supply expanded at 9.3% and German August unemployment fell 40,000 while French unemployment was up +0.1% in July.  The pair is still reacting to tropical storm Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico.  The storm is said to be gathering strength and could impact U.S. oil installations over the coming days.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4315 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥109.70 level and was supported around the ¥108.75 level.  Bank of Japan Policy Board member Suda reported the central bank should move rates once it is sure about the economy, adding “inflation should be directly confronted.”  Traders were stunned by a report in Nikkei that claims the U.S., Japan, and Europe were planning a concerted intervention to support the U.S. dollar in March when U.S. investment banking giant Bear Stearns collapsed.  The “aggressive” contingency plan was reportedly drawn up over the weekend of 15-16 March but was apparently never enacted because JPMorgan Chase Bank emerged as a buyer of Bear Stearns and the greenback stabilized.  These three currency areas have not overly intervened in a concerted manner since September 2000 and Japan last overly intervened in March 2004.  In the plan, Japan would have supplied yen through currency swaps and bought the yen and euro would have been sold.  The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.12% to close at ¥12,768.25.  Dollar bids are cited around the ¥106.40 level.  The euro weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥160.70 level and was capped around the ¥162.00 figure. The British pound and Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥199.80 and ¥99.55 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8275 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8380.  People’s Bank of China reported that a top priority for the rest of the year is curbing inflation.



The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.8400 figure and was capped around the $ 1.8240 level.  Cable reached its lowest level in about two years on account of weak U.K. economic data.  First, Nationwide reported U.K. house prices were off 10.5% y/y in August.  Second, the CBI’s monthly distributive trades survey’s retail sales balance worsened to -46 from -36 in July, its weakest level since July 1983.  These data underscore the fragile nature of final private demand in the U.K.  Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Blanchflower – an archdove – warned two million U.K. residents may be out of work by year-end and said large interest rate cuts are now needed to prevent the U.K. economy from softening further.  Cable bids are cited around the $1.8015 level.  The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8060 level and was supported around the ₤0.8015 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today
as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1010 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0885 level.  Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Hildebrand reported Swiss banks need to improve their capital and liquidity to contend with future crises. Data released in Switzerland today saw Q2 non-farm payrolls up 2.4% y/y.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1135 level.  The euro and British pound came off vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6105 and CHF 1.9990 levels, respectively.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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