dollar was range-bound until the much stronger than expected Aug Chicago PMI kicked
off a 0.5% rally on USD Index that was supported by a late oil sell-off and
decent consumer sentiment. Equities were not supportive however, with the DJIA
opening lower, showing no real inclination to recover and closing on the lows,
-172pts/-1.5%. Some pointed to the threat of economic damage from Hurricane
Gustav undermining stocks but of course this doesnâ€™t fit the crude oil from
$118.50/bbl to a $115.46/bbl close.
Zealand dollar wandered
around 0.7050 then sank below 0.7000 before steadying.
lower from the 0.8640 area to a low of 0.8555, closing at 0.8578. Commodities
offered mixed direction, mostly to the downside.
more than a cent to its NY lows of 1.4640, grinding back to a 1.4673 close.
equities left USD/JPY largely excluded from the broad dollar
gains, with the pair chopping around in a 108.43-97 range after the London morning
core PCE deflator rose 0.3% in July, which saw the annual rate edge higher again to
2.4%. The headline rate rose to a 17-year high of 4.5%. While gasoline prices
started to reverse course in late July, similar falls over the Aug-Sep period
in recent years mean that the seasonal adjustment factor will keep annual
inflation rates elevated for a while longer. Personal income fell 0.7% in July
as the tax rebates started to drop out of figures, while personal spending rose
US University of
sentiment index was revised up to 63.0 in its final August report.
One-year ahead inflation expectations were unrevised at 4.8% from 5.1% in June and
July. The cost shock from oil prices seems to account for the slump and more
recent recovery in consumer confidence, with spending in dollar terms holding
up through this period, but failing to keep pace with rising prices.
Chicago PMI surged to 57.9 in August, ahead of the median forecast of 50.0. Orders
and shipments both jumped sharply, but the employment measure fell further from
45.9 to 39.2. Prices paid dropped to 80.6 from 90.7, although this remains at extremely
high levels. The index is now well clear of the 44.5 low recorded in February.
consumer prices accelerated to 2.3%yr in July. The national
headline rate rose by 0.3ppt to 2.3% in July. Ex fresh food the rate was 2.4%
(from 1.9%) and ex fresh food and energy 0.2%yr (from 0.1%). The Tokyo headline
fell by 0.3ppt to 1.3% in August. Ex fresh food the rate was 1.5% (from 1.6%)
and ex fresh food and energy 0.2%yr (from 0.3%).
industrial production rose 0.9% in July, better than expected. That compares
to the consensus forecast of -0.5%, and our expectation of a flat outcome.
HICP inflation decelerated to 3.8% yr in Aug from 4.0% yr in July. There was
no breakdown with the numbers, but national data indicates that lower world oil
prices brought down heating and petrol prices in August.
July unemployment remained steady at 7.3%, as expected. Unemployment has
been rising in countries affected by slowing housing markets, such as France and Spain, but in Germany the labour
market remains robust.
economic sentiment dropped to 88.8 in Aug from 89.5 in July. Industrial sentiment
fell to -10 from -8, while consumer confidence picked up slightly, likely reflecting
lower petrol prices that month.
GDP rose 0.3% annualised in Q2, defying rumours of a negative print, though
Q1 was revised down from -0.3% to -0.8%. The price deflator surged 10.5% after the
4.9% rise in Q1.
improvement in NZ business confidence in August adds to the expectation that
short NZD positions will keep being trimmed, though investors are unlikely to
take large new positions as local markets count down to the expected RBNZ rate
cut on 11 Sep.
Release Last Forecast
TD-MI Inflation Gauge 0.4% â€“
Account Balance, AUDbn â€“19.5 â€“10.8
Exports Contrib to GDP, ppts â€“0.7 0.3
Profits 2.2% 6.0%
Inventories 0.9% 0.3%
Jpn Jul Cash
Earnings %yr 0.4% 0.3%
Eur Aug PMI
Factory (F) 47.5a 47.5
UK Aug House
Prices %yr â€“8.8% â€“10.7%
Consumer Credit Â£bn 0.9 1.0
Mortgage Lending Â£bn 3.1 2.8
Factory 44.3 44.0
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (25 August)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (18 August)
â€¢ NZ Q2
Retail Sales Review (15 August)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (11 August)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.