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Monday September 1, 2008 - 10:54:43 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Oil falls as Hurricane Gustav fails to strengthen


- (GE) Sep Retail Sales: M/M -1.5% v -0.3e; Y/0.0% v -2.2%e

- (SW) August Swedbank PMI Survery: 46.4 v 48.2e;

- (SP) Spain August Manufacturing PMI 42.4 v 39.2 prior

- (SZ) August SVME-Purchasing Managers Index: 52.5 v 53.5

- (IT) August PMI Manufacturing: 47.1 v 46.3e;

- (FR) August PMI Manufacturing: 45.8 v 45. 1e

- (GE) August PMI Manufacturing: 45.8 v 45.1e ;

- (IT) June Large Company Employment -0.3% v -0.% prior

- (EU) August PMI Manufacturing: 47.6 v 47.

- (UK) M4 Money Supply: MoM: 0.9% v 0.9% prior; YoY 11.2% v 11.2% prior

- (UK) July M4 Sterling Lending 12. 4B v 14.3B prior

- (
UK) July Net Consumer Credit: 1.1B v £0.

- (UK) July Net Lending 3.2B v £3.0Be

- (UK) July Mortgage Approvals: 35K v 36Ke

- (UK) August PMI Manufacturing45.9 v 44.0e

- (IT) July Hourly Wages: 0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y 4.3%v 3.7%e


- Vivendi [VIV.FR] VIV.FR: Reported Q2 Adj Net €757M against €712M estimates, Revenues came in at €5.99B v €6.02Be. Company guided FY08 inline with FY07. The company added that it does not need to raise capital. || GDF
Suez [GSZ. FR] Reported H1 Net €3.38B v €3.16Be, Rev came in at €43.13B above the €38. 8B estimates. GDF Suez announced special dividend €0.80/share in 2009

- Weekend comments from UK Darling commented that the UK was facing its worst economic conditions for 60 years and that the current crisis will be more profound and longer lasting than expected. The GBP tested fresh 30-month lows just above the 1.80 handle.

- Iran OPEC Governor reiterated their view that OPEC might support an output cut at its Sept meeting, citing the recent drop in oil prices.

- Former Japan Fin official Sakakibara (Mr. Yen) stated that
Japan needed strong Yen to invest overseas and to offset higher raw materials prices. He added that the BOF and Finance Ministry Should consider selling EUR/JPY cross.

- In currencies, the carry related pairs exhibited weakness as both JPY and CHF were purchased. Dealers cited the comments from Mr. Yen (Sakakibara) who noted that
Japan needed a stronger currency. EUR/JPY down over 170 pips at 157.70 area, USD/JPY at 107.73 and GBP/JPY off 200+ pips at 196.40. GBP probed the 1.80 level for fresh 30 month lows but failed to break below that psychological level at this time. Weaker UK mortgage data was also weighting upon sentiment.

·*** NOTES ***

- The European session saw a bit of mixed economic releases, but the UK markets focused on the Darling comments, which weighed upon stocks and currencies.

- Oil moved to session lows following the latest report from the NHC, which noted that the Hurricane Warning east of the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Alabama-Florida border has been changed to a tropical storm warning. NYMEX Oct Crude below the 116.00 level and approaching the unchanged level for the electronic session after testing above $117 during the late Asian/early European portion of the session. With the upcoming European Central bank meetings later this week, the Italian hourly wage data could highlight the hawkish ECB sentiment over the secondary effects of inflation. The YoY Italian wage data was the highest since Oct 1997.


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