dollar traded soggily in the London morning but
then bounced as Hurricane Gustav was downgraded to a category 2 storm. USD
Index rose 0.4% from its lows as the benchmark crude oil price extended its
losses from $117/bbl to as low as $110.60/bbl, then bumped around in the low $111s.
There was little else to focus on in the US and of
course poor liquidity with US markets
closed for Labor Day. Canadian markets were also closed.
Zealand dollar hit its 0.6988 high around the time of the USD lows then spent
most its time around 0.6945-65.
the broad USD trend, rebuffed from its 0.8555 high to the 0.8480-90 area where
its 1.4667 high in the London morning,
fell as low as 1.4582 in the wake of the weather update and sliding oil prices
then drifted around 1.4600. The resignation of Japanâ€™s PM Fukuda
pushed USD/JPY from 107.90 to 108.25 and then consolidated
those gains in very thin trade.
data. Labor Day holiday.
July earnings data: real incomes still negative. The
scheduled hours and overtime components improved to 0.6%yr and 1.1%yr
respectively in July. Total cash earnings fell to 0.3%yr, down from 1.6%yr in
January, against a headline inflation rate of 2.3%.
plans fiscal stimulus package. The government has decided to implement an
economic stimulus package. The budget will show a Â¥2.0trn spend, with extra
budgetary spending taking the package up to Â¥11.7trn (0.6% of GDP). The
dominance of extra budgetary measures implies that public works will form the
dominant part of the package. Given public investment has been something of a
black hole in the national accounts through the post 2003 fiscal consolidation,
this is no bad thing from a cyclical perspective. From a structural angle, it
is anti-reform and highly questionable from the perspective of fiscal prudence
with public debt still exorbitantly high. But then again, if you can borrow at
retail sales volumes fall 1.5% in July. This followed a 1.4% slump nin
June, and shows that consumer spending weakness in Q2 continued into Q3. Other
minor data included an upward revision to the Euroland factory PMI for Aug from
47.5 to 47.6.
mortgage loan approvals fall to 33k in July. This is down a staggering 72%
compared to the 2007 peak, and reflects both constrained loan supply and weak
demand for loans given expectations of further falls in house prices. Other
data included a Â£1.1bn rise in net consumer credit, up from Â£0.9bn in June.
manufacturing edges up from 44.3 to 45.9 in Aug. The factory sector
is still in recession despite this slightly less weak report.
are unlikely to take large new positions as local markets count down to the
expected RBNZ rate cut on 11 Sep but AUD/NZD looks like a buy on dips.
Country Release Last Forecast
2 Sep Aus
RBA Policy Announcement 7.25% 7.00%
Approvals â€“0.7% â€“1.0%
Spending 1.4% â€“0.4%
US Aug ISM
Manufacturing 50.0 49.5
Construction Spending â€“0.4% â€“0.5%
Sales mn annâ€™lsd 12.5 12.2
Eur Jul PPI
%yr 8.0% 9.1%
UK Aug PMI
Construction 36.7 36.0
3 Sep NZ Aug
ANZ Commodity Prices 1.8% â€“
Aus Q2 GDP
US Fed Beige
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 September)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (25 August)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (18 August)
â€¢ NZ Q2
Retail Sales Review (15 August)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (11 August)
â€¢ NZ Q2 HLFS
Review (7 August)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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