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Tuesday September 2, 2008 - 10:52:50 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update - Oil continues its fall as early signs point that US Gulf Oil facilities have avoided big damage


- (SZ) August CPI: M/M -0.3% v -0. 1%e; Y/Y 2.9% v 3.1%e;

- (SZ) GDP 2Q QoQ: 0.4% 0.2%e; YoY: 2.3% v 2.4%e;

- (SP) August Unemployment MoM: 103.1K v 96.8Ke;

- (NO) August Norway PMI SA: 48.4 v 50.3e

- (UK) August PMI Construction: 40.5 v 36.0e

- (GE) German August new car registrations Y/Y -10.4%; YTD +1.7% - VDIK Auto Association

- (EU) July Euro-Zone PPI: M/M 1.1% v 1.2%e; Y/Y 9.0% v 9.1%e;

- (SA) SAGB sells ZAR500M in R207 30-Year Bonds; Bid-to-Cover 4.42x; Yield 9. 16%

- (UK) Sells £2.25B in 40-year Gilts, bid-to-cover 1.73x v 1.60x prior, yield 4.25%


- Bayer [BAY.GE] Submitted Recombinant Human Thrombin For EU Approval forused as a topical aid to control surgical bleeding.

- Alcatel-Lucent [ALU.FR] Confirmed press speculation: Names Philippe Camus Non-Executive Chairman and Ben Verwaayen CEO.

- Deutsche Borse [DB1. GE] was firmer in the session after holders TCI and Atticus noted that they will cooperate to explore options on company, which may include board changes

- Glaxo [GSK.UK] stated that Darapladib failed to improve the quality of plaque in mid-stage clinical trial

- BOJ's Shirkawa noted that the rise in core CPI likely to slow in 2009. Noted that he still sees uncertainty in Japanese economy and added that US economy likely to remain subdued in H2 of 2008

- German Fin Min Steinbrueck stated that China is concerned about US economic slowdown and financial market turmoil; German official noted that China remains keen on diversifying its FX reserves with the US Dollar remaining a key focus

- UK Treasury raised stamp duty threshold on house purchases to £175K from £125K, effective Sept 3rd.

- OECD stated that the Fed and BoJ interest rate policies are appropriate, sees possible BoE interest rate cut; supports ECB "no bias" policy stance at this time. The OECD raised its 2008 GDP forecast for the
US to 1.8% from 1.2% prior view and lowered each of the European GDP outlook.

- (
PD) Poland Central Banker Filar stated that Polish Inflation should slow down to 4.7% in October. He added that the central bank should raise interest rates laterthis month

- Thai Central Bank confirmed FX market intervention to support Thai Baht

- Australian Central Bank lowered interest rates for the first time in 7 years by 25bps to 7.00%.

- In energy: Hurricane Hanna becomes a Category 1 storm, little change in strength seen over the next 24 hours. NYMEX front month crude continues to fall as Gustav failed to inflict severe damage to oil operation in the
Gulf of Mexico. IEA stated that early signs point US Gulf Oil facilities have avoided big damage. An OPEC Delegate stated that oil prices remain high even at $109 per barrel level. The unnamed delegate noted that members are considering a rollover at next week OPEC meeting. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that Tropical depression #10 formed in the Atlantic


·*** NOTES ***

The USD continued to benefit from the lower oil prices as Hurrican Gustav failed to severely damage the Gulf oil facilities. Front month crude tested below the $106 level before retracing. The front month futures contract opened above $117 on Sunday night. Gold following energy prices lower but lagging in terms of descent. Spot gold holding above the $800 per oz level. EUR/USD dropped below its former synthetic highs of 1.4577 made back in Sept 1992. Dealers taking notice of developments on the Asian front. The Japanese PM resigned on Monday. Thai govt announced a state of emergency. Various regional Central banks (
Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia) are performing currency interventions. In Europe the Spain unemployment was up 10% since July is highlighting the concern on the economic front. Number of unemployed increased by 103k workers. labor ministry follows up by saying they see registered jobless continuing to rise going forward, economic stagnation is intensifying, and Spain faces very negative scenario.


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