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Tuesday September 2, 2008 - 12:10:34 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 02-Sep-2008 -1203 GMTEURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and
EUR-JPY by registering at
Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given
USD-CHF @ 1.1093/98... Could dip intra day.
R: 1.1135 / 1.1165 / 1.1200
S: 1.1085 / 1.1065-50 / 1.1015-00 / 1.0975
As mentioned in our morning report the pair has risen towards 1.1130, which
also happens to be close to the Max High for the day. A dip from here,
towards 1.1050, could be seen later in the day. However, a fall towards 1.10
could only be seen provided the US ISM disappoints in a big way.
As long as the Support at 1.1050 holds, there remains a chance of a rise
towards 1.12 later in the week.
To see the chart on US ISM click on:
The charts of USD-CHF are available on:
GBP-USD @ 1.7845/48... Finding Support at 1.78
R: 1.7860 / 1.7900 / 1.7935 / 1.7990
S: 1.7800-775 / 1.7735 / 1.7700 / 1.7660
Cable saw another dip of 200 pips in the day, despite a better than expected
Constructoion PMI at 40.5. However, one should not overlook the fact that a
PMI of 40.5 is still much below the 50.0 the benchmark level. A release
above 50 means the industry is in expansion.
Also note that the Stimulus Package was announced earlier in the day as
well. A Stimulus package is paycheck from the Government to the citizens in
order to stumulate spending in the economy. Such announcements cannot help
the economy much in the long term and could only possibly delay the
The Interest rates in UK are expected to remain unchanged on Thursday. To
see the charts click on:
New lows are seen every second day and so it becomes difficult to anticipate
the level Cable currently targets. In the medium term there is a very
crucial Support at 1.75 on the pair. However, it remains to be seen if the
Support is tested before the BOE or after it.
AUD-USD @ 0.8344/48... Nearing longer term Support
R: 0.8350 / 0.8425 / 0.8475
S: 0.8250 / 0.8150 / 0.8100
A fall of 250 pips was seen in the pair after the RBA statement indicated
that further rate cuts could be seen later this year. There is also a
mention that the inflation much higher than their comfort and it would come
under control only during 2010. This projection gives some comfort despite
lowered growth estimates and a falling Capacity Utilization, that the
interest rate cuts may not be in a fast succession and a the slide could
have left the pair oversold.
Also, with a very important Support at 0.8250-8150, a longer-term buy could
be initiated near the Support with a wide Stop, possibly below 0.80 for a
rise towards 0.8500. To see the longer term charts of AUD-USD click
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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