amid a huge wave of commodity selling (especially energy) in the London morning,
with DXY up about 0.7% at its highs and oil sinking as low as $105.46/bbl (down
more than $5) in frenetic trade. But markets then became more two-way, helping
oil build support for a rally back above $110/bbl, turning sizeable US equity
gains into losses and trimming DXY net gains to 0.3% in late NY. The New
Zealand dollar was not
spared the London mayhem,
sliding as low as 0.6803 before working its way back to 0.6875.
hit harder than most amid the commodity carnage, crumbling from near 0.8500 to
as low as 0.8270 in a scramble for the exits. It then found buyers en route to
0.8380 as USD Index started to soften and on an influential newspaper columnistâ€™s
argument that the RBAâ€™s easing cycle could be brief.
morning scramble for dollars saw EUR/USD lose >1
cent to a 1.4466 low before a grind back to 1.4515/20 in late NY with
see-sawing in EURIBOR on talk of ECB concern over rate cut pricing.
its 109.19 high in line with broad dollar buying then eased back to 108.80 as
the DJIA turned negative, having traded +235pts early.
manufacturing dropped slightly to 49.9 in Aug. The prices
paid component fell from 88.5 to 77.0 as fuel prices eased during the month. Of
importance for this Fridayâ€™s jobs report, the employment index fell from 51.9 to
49.7, but it remains above the levels seen in the first half of this year.
construction spending fell 0.6% in July, slightly worse than forecast. But
there were some sizeable upward revisions to previous months, and it looks as
though Q2 GDP growth, which was already revised up to 3.3% annualised last
week, will be revised even higher for the final estimate at the end of this
month. Residential spending is now down 27.1% on a year ago, while
non-residential spending is 12.6% higher.
producer prices rose 1.1% in July, taking the annual rate up to 9.0%. Energy
prices were once again the main driver, but with world oil prices falling
sharply since mid-July, it is likely that the annual rate of increase has
PMIs unexpectedly rose in Aug. The manufacturing PMI rose from 44.1 to
45.9, while the construction index rose from 36.7 to 40.5. While both measures
remain well below the â€˜zero growthâ€™ mark of 50, they provide the first signs of
improvement in some time for two sectors that have been hit particularly hard
by tighter credit and rising input costs.
OECD released new growth forecasts for the G7 economies. While the
forecast for the group as a whole is unchanged at 1.4% in 2008, the mix has
changed significantly: the US is now
expected to grow 1.8%, compared to 1.2% in June, while forecasts for the UK and Europe were
revised down sharply.
are unlikely to take large new positions as local markets countdown to the
expected RBNZ rate cut on 11 Sep but AUD/NZD looks like a buy on dips.
Release Last Forecast
NZ Aug ANZ
Commodity Prices 1.8% â€“
Aus Q2 GDP
Corporate Layoff Announcements
Orders 1.7% 1.1%
Eur Aug PMI
Services (F) 48.2 a 48.2
Sales â€“0.6% flat
Revision â€“0.2% a â€“0.2%
UK Aug PMI
Services 47.4 47.0
Aug BRC Shop
Price Index %yr 3.2% â€“
Confidence 51 49
Can BoC Rate
Decision 3.00% 3.00%
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 September)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (25 August)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (18 August)
â€¢ NZ Q2
Retail Sales Review (15 August)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (11 August)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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