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Wednesday September 3, 2008 - 10:40:01 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update - July Euro-Zone Retail Sales below expectations

.***Data***


- (SP) August Spain Services PMI 39.0 v 37.1 prior

- (IT) August Business Confidence 83.5 v 84.0e, lowest reading since Oct 2001

- (IT) August PMI Services48.5 v 46.5e

- (FR) August PMI Services 48.0 v 48.5e

- (GE) August PMI Services 51.4 v 50.6e

- (SP) August Consumer Confidence v 45.5e

- (EC) August PMI Services 48.5 v 48. 2e; PMI Composite 48.2 v 48.0e

- (
UK) August PMI 49.2 v 47. 0e

- (EU) July Euro-Zone Retail Sales; M/: -0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -2. 8% v-2.1%e

- (EU) Euro-Zone Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e

- (UK) Aug BRC Shop Price Index: M/M: 0.5% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.2% prior

·*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

Punch taverns [PUB.UK] Reported FY08 like-for-like sales down-3.3%, but reaffirmed its FY expectations. ||Sanofi-Aventis [SAN.FR] provided further analysis from ATHENA study showed that Multaq reduced the risk of stroke in patients with Atrial Fibrillation. || Pernod-Richard [RI.FR] Confirmed agreement between Maxxium shareholders for a termination of the distribution contract for Vin & Sprit brands with effect from October 1st. || [TEO.FR] Reported H1 Net loss €25. 3M v profit €6.2M, EBITDA €8.6M v loss €3.3M. The co. lowering its 2008 EBITDA forecast to €20M from €55M-€60M range and adds that 2008 will be a year of transition. || Playtech [PTEC.UK] Reported H1 Net $37.2M v $25.7M y/y, Adj Pretax $57.8M v $30.4M y/y; Rev $81.4M v $44M y/y || Cable&Wireless [CW.UK] Announced £1B bulk annuity agreement with Prudential [PRU.UK] || Tullow Oil [TWL.UK] Announces positive test results in Kingfisher-2 well

- IMF official stated that South Korea is facing challenging period and FX weakness reflects global slowdown. Adds that fundamentals are stronger than a decade ago. IMF stated
South Korea has substantial FX reserves.

- Chinese Banking Chief stated that
China must study its currency policy and break the market expectation of one way advance of the CNY.

- Australia Fin Min says GDP is showing consumption and investment is rebalancing and noted that Aussie economy is ready to weather external shocks as External challenges are quite serious

- Former BoE member Buiter: UK likely to entered recession in H1 and noted that BoE could cut rates at some stage as economy slows. Buiter noted that perhaps ECB could lower rates in Q1 of 2009 as inflation slows.

- S&P does not anticipate any US AAA rating change as a result of the GSEs problems.

-
Pakistan's PM escaped assassination attempt after gunmen fired upon his motorcade

·*** NOTES ***

European equities saw its price action move lower after July Euro-Zone retail sales data came in below expectations. The slew of European Services PMI were generally above expectations but remain mixed in terms of expanding/contracting. But the
UK market largely ignored stronger than expected U.K. Services PMI . Dealers noting that the ECB is likely to hold rates steady at Thursday's policy meeting as the central bank remain focused on inflation and on the magnitude of recent wage settlements in Europe. Overall the USD remains firm as Commodity weakness persists. EUR/USD tested below the 1.44 handle and GBP/USD probed the 1.76 handle. The Euro is unable to capitalize as ther 2 year spread against Germany back above the 180bps level as dealers cite that lower oil and lower US rates, despite the fact that FOMC minutes show 3 Fed banks wanted to raise the discount rate at the last meeting.

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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