initial resumption of the scramble for dollars in London, USD Index lost
about -0.7% from its London morning
highs with real money accounts prominent. The above-consensus reading on July
factory orders (1.3% vs 1.0% expected) provided some fleeting support. But then
nervous equities, a dovish tone from Boston Fedâ€™s Rosengren and a downbeat Fed
Beige Book didnâ€™t help the dollarâ€™s cause. S&P lowered the rating or
outlook on 10 regional banks. The New
Zealand dollar trended
higher within a wide 0.6751 - 0.6904 range, sitting at 0.6835 in late NY.
its 0.8233 low in the London morning and
added more than a cent to the 0.8355 area near the NY close amid broad USD
selling and with commodities not as weak as some feared after the Ospraie fund closure.
steadily from its 1.4385 lows through NY trade to recapture 1.4500, ahead of
the ECB meeting Thursday which is not likely to produce dovish rhetoric.
from 109.00 continued, in a steady decline towards 108.00.
factory orders up 1.3% in Jul. This included a known 1.3% rise in durable
orders and a similar rise in non-durables, some of which was due to the higher
price of energy â€“ which of course will reverse from August and tend to weigh
against orders growth.
Fed Beige Book reported that activity remained â€śweakâ€ť or â€śsubduedâ€ť and that
consumer spending was â€śslowâ€ť in August. Nearly all districts reported pressures
to raise prices due to higher input costs, and many businesses indicated that
they have been able to do so. However, wage demands were still seen to be
moderate, amid a general pullback in hiring.
GDP growth unrevised at â€“0.2% in Q2. The detail in the report showed a 0.2% fall
in household consumption, and a downward revision to that component from 0.2%
to flat in Q1, confirming a very weak spending picture. Also, Euroland retail
sales were down 0.4% in July, following a downward revision to June, adding to
the soft picture. In other news, the PMI services for Euroland was revised up
modestly from 48.2 to 48.5 in Aug, still indicative of contraction in the
consumer confidence steady at a very weak 52 in Aug. The Nationwide
spokeswoman suggested that gloom over the economy was offset by the decent
medal tally achieved by Team GB in Beijing. Also, the PMI
services rose from 47.4 to 49.2 in Aug, indicating a slower pace of contraction.
But the BRCâ€™s early look at shop price inflation for Aug rose fro 3.2% yr to
3.8% yr, implying further upside in the next CPI report, due 16/9.
of Canada on hold at 3.0%, and its balanced risk assessment maintained.
are unlikely to take large new positions as local markets count down to the
expected RBNZ rate cut on 11 Sep but AUD/NZD looks like a buy on dips.
Thursday 4 September 2008
Release Last Forecast
Trade Balance, AUDbn 0.41 â€“0.35
US Q2 Mortgage
Delinquencies % 6.4% 7.0%
Private Payrolls Change 9k â€“3k
Productivity Revisions % annâ€™lsd 2.2% 3.0%
Jobless Claims w/e 30/8 425k 430k
Non-Manufacturing 49.5 50.0
Store Sales %yr 2.6% â€“
Eur ECB Rate
Decision 4.25% 4.25%
Factory Orders â€“2.9% 0.3%
UK BoE Rate
Decision 5.00% 5.00%
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 September)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (25 August)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (18 August)
â€˘ NZ Q2
Retail Sales Review (15 August)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (11 August)
â€˘ NZ Q2 HLFS
Review (7 August)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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