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Thursday September 4, 2008 - 20:47:15 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report  Friday 5 September 2008

 

News and views

A downgrade to the ECB’s growth forecasts encouraged EUR/USD selling as did weaker oil prices and an upside surprise on the non-manufacturing ISM survey, helping USD Index rally 1% off its London morning lows. The extent of the dollar’s gains was striking given heavy losses in US equities, at least in part due to bond giant Pimco’s call for the US govt to buy financial assets to avoid a “destructive financial tsunami.” DJIA losses exceeded 300pts in late NY. The New Zealand dollar was not spared amid the latest scramble for USD. After drifting around 0.6860 for some time, NZD/USD sank as far as 0.6720 in NY.

 

The rise in risk aversion ensured AUD/USD suffered too, slipping from 0.8375 to 0.8240.

 

The ECB gave no hint of a rate cut but markets focused on the weaker growth picture and the euro wasn’t helped by an IMF declaration that it was still overvalued. EUR/ USD fell from the low 1.45s to a fragile-looking 1.4320 in late NY.

 

The Japanese yen was the exception among majors vs USD, as it enjoyed safe haven buying. USD/JPY lost more than one yen to the low 107s i.e. yen crosses were smacked.

 

US ISM non-manufacturing rises from 49.5 to 50.6 in Aug, back into positive territory for the first month in three, and the sample respondent comments provided by the ISM make it clear this was predominantly a reflection of respondent optimism that lower fuel prices will encourage greater spending on discretionary services. Related to this, prices paid fell to a four month low. Softer features of the report were that orders were less weak but still sub-50, while the jobs measure slipped back towards the mid 40s, though the month to month correlation of this index with the services component of the payrolls report is not strong.

 

More US labour market news: The ADP private payrolls estimate of a 33k fall is only the third fall for this series this year so far (compared to seven consecutive payrolls declines) and given that ADP tends to out-perform the official payrolls data by up to 80-100k per month, the risk of a steeper fall in total payrolls (due

tonight) than the 60k drop we are forecasting has probably increased. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims jumped 15k to 44k and although the figures are still being distorted higher by changed registration arrangements, we believe the impact of that distortion is fading, so it is probably the case that there has been an underlying deterioration in labour market conditions in the past month. The ongoing rise in continuing claims certainly supports that view.

 

The European Central Bank left its repo rate on hold at 4.25%. At the press conference, ECB chief Trichet stressed that the Bank has no policy bias but he insisted that “it remains imperative to avoid broad-based second-round effects in price and wage-setting”. On the data front, German factory orders recorded their eighth consecutive monthly decline, further evidence that the European industrial sector is losing momentum.

 

The Swedish Riksbank lifted its repo rate 25bp to 4.75% but signalled that rates have probably now peaked.

 

The Bank of England left rates on hold at 5.00% following this week’s monetary policy committee meeting. No statement was issued, but we expect the minutes in two weeks two show an increased vote in favour of cutting rates, including a probable vote for an immediate 50bp rate cut by arch-dove David Blanchflower On the data front, HBoS reported house prices down 1.8% in August, pulling their annual rate of decline down to –10.9% yr.

 

Outlook

We are broadly neutral NZD/USD but bearish NZD vs AUD ahead of the expected RBNZ rate cut on 11 September.

 

 

Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

5 Sep NZ Q2 Wholesale Sales 0.2% 2.2%

US Aug Non-Farm Payrolls ch’ –51k –60k

Aug Unemployment Rate % 5.7% 5.7%

Fedspeak: Yellen

Jpn Q2 MoF Capex Survey %yr –4.9% 0.2%

Ger Jul Industrial Production 0.2% –0.8%

Can Aug Employment ch’ –55k 30k

Aug Ivey PMI nsa 65.5 58.0

8 Sep NZ Q2 Building Work Put in Place –6.3% –

Aus RBA Gov Stevens Semi-Annual Testimony

US Jul Consumer Credit $bn 14.3 8.8

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• Nation building (4 September)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (1 September)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (25 August)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (18 August)

• NZ Q2 Retail Sales Review (15 August)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (11 August)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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