User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday September 4, 2008 - 20:47:15 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report  Friday 5 September 2008


News and views

A downgrade to the ECB’s growth forecasts encouraged EUR/USD selling as did weaker oil prices and an upside surprise on the non-manufacturing ISM survey, helping USD Index rally 1% off its London morning lows. The extent of the dollar’s gains was striking given heavy losses in US equities, at least in part due to bond giant Pimco’s call for the US govt to buy financial assets to avoid a “destructive financial tsunami.” DJIA losses exceeded 300pts in late NY. The New Zealand dollar was not spared amid the latest scramble for USD. After drifting around 0.6860 for some time, NZD/USD sank as far as 0.6720 in NY.


The rise in risk aversion ensured AUD/USD suffered too, slipping from 0.8375 to 0.8240.


The ECB gave no hint of a rate cut but markets focused on the weaker growth picture and the euro wasn’t helped by an IMF declaration that it was still overvalued. EUR/ USD fell from the low 1.45s to a fragile-looking 1.4320 in late NY.


The Japanese yen was the exception among majors vs USD, as it enjoyed safe haven buying. USD/JPY lost more than one yen to the low 107s i.e. yen crosses were smacked.


US ISM non-manufacturing rises from 49.5 to 50.6 in Aug, back into positive territory for the first month in three, and the sample respondent comments provided by the ISM make it clear this was predominantly a reflection of respondent optimism that lower fuel prices will encourage greater spending on discretionary services. Related to this, prices paid fell to a four month low. Softer features of the report were that orders were less weak but still sub-50, while the jobs measure slipped back towards the mid 40s, though the month to month correlation of this index with the services component of the payrolls report is not strong.


More US labour market news: The ADP private payrolls estimate of a 33k fall is only the third fall for this series this year so far (compared to seven consecutive payrolls declines) and given that ADP tends to out-perform the official payrolls data by up to 80-100k per month, the risk of a steeper fall in total payrolls (due

tonight) than the 60k drop we are forecasting has probably increased. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims jumped 15k to 44k and although the figures are still being distorted higher by changed registration arrangements, we believe the impact of that distortion is fading, so it is probably the case that there has been an underlying deterioration in labour market conditions in the past month. The ongoing rise in continuing claims certainly supports that view.


The European Central Bank left its repo rate on hold at 4.25%. At the press conference, ECB chief Trichet stressed that the Bank has no policy bias but he insisted that “it remains imperative to avoid broad-based second-round effects in price and wage-setting”. On the data front, German factory orders recorded their eighth consecutive monthly decline, further evidence that the European industrial sector is losing momentum.


The Swedish Riksbank lifted its repo rate 25bp to 4.75% but signalled that rates have probably now peaked.


The Bank of England left rates on hold at 5.00% following this week’s monetary policy committee meeting. No statement was issued, but we expect the minutes in two weeks two show an increased vote in favour of cutting rates, including a probable vote for an immediate 50bp rate cut by arch-dove David Blanchflower On the data front, HBoS reported house prices down 1.8% in August, pulling their annual rate of decline down to –10.9% yr.



We are broadly neutral NZD/USD but bearish NZD vs AUD ahead of the expected RBNZ rate cut on 11 September.



Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

5 Sep NZ Q2 Wholesale Sales 0.2% 2.2%

US Aug Non-Farm Payrolls ch’ –51k –60k

Aug Unemployment Rate % 5.7% 5.7%

Fedspeak: Yellen

Jpn Q2 MoF Capex Survey %yr –4.9% 0.2%

Ger Jul Industrial Production 0.2% –0.8%

Can Aug Employment ch’ –55k 30k

Aug Ivey PMI nsa 65.5 58.0

8 Sep NZ Q2 Building Work Put in Place –6.3% –

Aus RBA Gov Stevens Semi-Annual Testimony

US Jul Consumer Credit $bn 14.3 8.8


Latest Research Papers/Publications

• Nation building (4 September)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (1 September)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (25 August)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (18 August)

• NZ Q2 Retail Sales Review (15 August)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (11 August)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (




Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105