- GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] announced that it in exclusive talks with Nam regarding
Dutch Continental shelf assets in a deal potentially valued â‚¬1.07B || J.D.
Wetherspoon [JDW.UK] Reported FY Net ÂŁ35.2M compared to ÂŁ46. 8M y/y, Rev 907.5M
v â‚¬888.5M y/y, Company Remained confident of achieving its FY targets. ||
Bombardier [BBDB.GE] was awarded an order from Danish State Railways valued at
$118M, with a foreseeable option of 30 additional trains.
- ECB Trichet stated that the central bank only ever signals interest rate actions
a month ahead of time if warranted. Trichet noted that recent correction of
prior market excesses are welcome, even though painful. Trichit reiterated that
the ECB never recommits to the interest rate path and will do what is necessary
for price stability
- ECB's Stark also reiterated that price stability mandate is clear and the top
prioty for the ECB. Strak noted that the past year was the most challenging in
the banks 10-year history. Stark added that commodity price shocks threaten to
unhinge inflation expectations and that the July rate hike was a clear signal
for wage setters. Stark noted that 3Q Euro-Zone Economic growth "Very
Likely" Weak and that inflation Will clearly ease in months ahead.
- ECB's Nowotny (replaced Leibscher) stated there is a strong chance that
inflation has peaked and that wage demands should consider the CPI peak. He
added that the ECB has no target for currency exchange rates.
- Russian Central Bank stated that there are no plans to widen the Ruble
trading band over next few months and that the recent RUB decline is not
critical; He added that the Central Bank will increase amount available at
daily repos auction.Russia Central Bank Deputy Chairman Yukayev stated that he
Expected zero inflation in September. He added that Russia is likely to see no capital inflows
during September (YTD capital inflows at $24.5B).
- (JP) Japan Fin Ministry stated that Japan may sell new construction bonds
- In Energy: EU Commissioner Piebalgs: OPEC output cut would be a wrong step;
ECB Trichet says that it is unclear if inverted oil futures curve is due to
risk premium or spot price outlook. Goldman Sach oil analyst maintained his Q4
and 2009 price target for WTI at $130 and $140 per barrel respectively. The
analyst did note that short term factors could send oil below $100 per barrel.
- In the papers: The NY Times article suggested that Main Bank of China is in
Need of Capital after a seven year buying spree of around $1 trillion worth of
Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued. The article noted that these
investments have been declining sharply in value when converted from dollars
into the strong CNY, casting a spotlight on the central bank's tiny capital
base. The bank's capital, just $3.2 billion, has not grown during the buying
spree, despite private warnings from the IMF
Â·*** NOTES ***
- the session was marked by some volatility price movements. The current them
of softer equities, lower commodities and stronger USD continued into the
European session. Risk aversion fears continue to mount. Gold Sachs downgrading
of Merrill Lynch [MER} and its additions to the â€śConviction Buy Listâ€ť added to
concerns over the financial sector.
Dealers noting that comments from various ECB member touted the price stability
mandate and that inflation remains a concern.
European equity markets were off almost 2% at one point added by the usual
concerns of â€śhedge fund liquidationsâ€ť. Thus the market has voted on what it
thinks of the single needle compass of the ECB and implying that the central
bank should expand the mandate. Dealers will focus on the US payroll data later today.
- Looking ahead at the rest of the session:
7:00 (CA) Aug Net Change in Employment expected at 10.0K v -55.2K prior
7:00 (CA) Aug Unemployment rate expected at 6.2% v 6.1% prior
8:30 (US) Aug Change in Nonfarm Payroll expected at -75K v -51K prior
8:30 (US) Aug Unemployment Rate: expected at 5. 7% v 5.7% prior
8:30 (US) Aug Change in manufact payrolls expected at -35K v -35K prior
8:30 (US) Aug Avg Hourly earnings MoM expected at 0.3% v 0.3% prior
8:30 (US) Aug Avg Weekly Hours MoM expected at 33.6 v 33.6 prior
10:00 (CA) Aug Ivey Purchasing Managers Index expected at 61.8 v 65.5 prior
10:00 (US) Q2 Mortgage Delinquencies: No estimate v 6.35% prior
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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