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Friday September 5, 2008 - 11:46:20 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 05-Sep-2008 -1145 GMTEURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1155/59... Could dip lower, despite the positive momentum
R: 1.1175-88 / 1.1200 / 1.1240-60
S: 1.1115-00 / 1.1060 / 1.1020-00
The pair has tested the Max High for the day at 1.1181, and could now be headed lower in the US session. There is a strong Support in the pair at 1.1100, and till the time it holds, there remains a possibility of a rise beyond the Resistance at 1.12 as well. It remains to be seen if the rise in contention will be seen today or in the next week.
If on the other hand the Resistance holds, and the Support at 1.11 gives way, a dip towards 1.1060, the Max Low for the day could be seen. Such a dip would be seen only if the US NFP springs a negative surprise.
To follow the US NFP click on:
To see the above mentioned Support and Resistances on USD-CHF charts click on:
GBP-USD @ 1.7616/20... Could slip further
R: 1.7650 / 1.7700 / 1.7770 / 1.7850
S: 1.7450 / 1.7370 / 1.7325 / 1.7250
A small rise has been seen in the day in the pair however, the bears are going to get the better of the bulls it seems. The pair could be headed below the 1.75 mark later in the day.
The UK economy in a crisis the pair is getting hammered to a new low every second day. and this hammering could continue further today. There is some Support in the pair near 1.75, however, if it is broken past, a slide towards 1.71-70 would become likely. Details of the Support at 1.70 are â€¦.â€śSupport near 1.7150-7050 region, seen as a horizontal Support that also resulted in a bounce during Nov â€™05. The level was also an important Resistance and tested several times over during Dec â€™96 to Oct â€™98.â€ť mentioned in our reports earlier in the day.
To see the charts on the pair click on:
Also keep an eye on US NFP later today:
AUD-USD @ 0.8100/04... Could trade within 0.7950-8250
R: 0.8100-20 / 0.8165-75 / 0.8220 / 0.8245-65
S: 0.8050 / 0.8000 / 0.7950 / 0.7900
The pair has dipped further in the day to a low of 0.8063. Going ahead there could be a bounce towards 0.83-85 in the near-medium term before the eventual break further lower. The is an increased bias for a bounce back on the ground that the levels that pair currently trades at are important Support levels. The trendline joins the lows of the Bull Run that started in 2001 and provides Support in the 0.7950-0.8250 region.
For the day, the pair could slip down further as the Max Low for the day has been broken at 0.8103. However, from here a rise immediately might not be very likely. Also the weakness in Gold is expected to keep the pair from rising further immediately.
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09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
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00:30 AU- Employment
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13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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Thu 14 Dec
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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