FX Research - FX Briefing - EUR-USD hits lowest level this year
FX Briefing 5
Â·Oil down, dollar
European economic indicators
growth forecast, warns of second-round effects
EUR-USD hits lowest level this year
week the euro dropped to 1.42 against the dollar, the lowest it has been this
year. The pound Sterling also remained under pressure: cable slipped to 1.755
for a time â€“ its lowest level since April
2006. The gloomy economic outlook is dragging the UK
currency down. The OECD, for instance, sees Britain
as the only G7 country which will slide into recession this year. The Bank of
England has not yet reacted to this threat, keeping interest rates on hold at
5%. It could cut interest rates in the coming months, however. The yen, on the
other hand, strengthened, rising to its highest level this year against the
dollar. This was probably due to the unwinding of carry trades in view of the
weak economic data and falling oil prices continued to weigh on the euro.
Hurricane Gustav spared
the oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico,
causing the oil price to fall sharply at the beginning of
the week. Once again, cheaper oil went hand in hand with a more expensive
dollar. As the biggest oil importer, the US
should benefit most from cheaper oil. Moreover, due to the drop in prices,
commodities are becoming less attractive as an alternative investment. After
losing 39% of its value since the beginning of the year, a large hedge fund,
which had invested in commodity stocks and derivatives, was closed this week.
economic data from the eurozone continue to be weak. Retail sales fell in Germany
and the eurozone,
and Q2 eurozone GDP components confirmed that private consumption has weakened significantly
throughout the whole of the euro area: consumer spending has been stagnating since
the 4th quarter of 2007. Furthermore, there are
increasing signs that foreign demand is declining. German industrial new
orders, for instance, dropped in July for the eighth time in a row; for the
first time, orders from the non-eurozone area declined more sharply too.
were focused on the ECB press conference. Jean-Claude Trichet took a far less
hawkish tone, however, than Bundesbank president Axel Weber, who had shocked
markets the previous week by remarking that the ECB might have to consider
raising interest rates towards the end of the year. Mr Trichet, however,
insisted that the council had no bias.
European Central Bank has become much more cautious in its economic assessment:
although the council members regard the growth slowdown in the second and third
quarter as only temporary, the uncertainty surrounding this outlook is
particularly high in their view. Furthermore, there was no longer any mention
in the introductory remarks of fundamentals in the eurozone being sound. The ECB
lowered their growth projections accordingly: for this year, the experts are
now expecting a central growth rate of 1.4% only (after 1.8% previously), and
for 2009, they cut their forecast from 1.5% to 1.2%.
upside risks to price stability still prevail over the medium term, according
to JeanClaude Trichet,
he was confident that, after the last interest rate hike in July, eurozone
inflation would be back on target in the course of 2010. He emphasized that the
governing council remains strongly committed to preventing secondround effects.
from next February, the ECB is tightening lending rules for financial
institutions using riskier collateral. Mr Trichet pointed out, however, that
this was not a restrictive monetary policy measure, but rather a regular risk
adjustment. After the press conference, EUR-USD fell to fresh lows. Not many
data are due to be published next week. Mr Trichet is unlikely to say anything
different in his testimony to the European parliament on Wednesday. After
having plummeted in the last few days, EUR-USD could calm down to some extent.
However, there is still one important economic indicator outstanding this week â€“
labour market report is due to be released later today.
Angenendt +49 69 718-3648
Grabbe / Klaus NÃ¤fken
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the
information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are
based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the
BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and
recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and
are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute
advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be
owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should
seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned
herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from
them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment
or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is
for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or
their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this
document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation
of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its
officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in
transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any
related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.