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Sunday September 7, 2008 - 11:34:37 GMT
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FX Blog - Can this be a confirmation of a definite end of the Dollar long term mega-downtrend?

An excert from my Trendways analysis this weekend:

"Can this be a confirmation of a definite end of the Dollar long term mega-downtrend?

Looking at cable we could say 'yes' as the 6-year monthly support line was not only broken at 1.9060 in August but actually smashed since prices have fallen an additional 15 big figures below that line. EUR/JPY is not thus far offering such a kind of assurance because the respective monthly line has not even been challenged, coming in this month around 1.3875 i.e. at some distamce off current leveld. However, what should not be taken lightly is that the current quarterly range is the biggest seen since the introduction of the Euro in January 1999 and, mind you, the quarter still has 3 weeks to complete. More precisely, this 3rd quarter of 2008 has so far a 1840 pip range. the previous two biggest quarterly range in EUR/$ were Q1 2008 with 1540 pips (the rise from 1.4365 to 1.5905 and Q4 2004 with 1440 (the rise from 1.2225 to 1.3665). If you have not noticed, cable has already fallen so far this quarter by an astounding 2625 pips. Speaking of really big moves, although these current ones are not the biggest I have seen, for sure the 1540 pips run so far by EUR/$ and those 2300 by GBP/$ since their last model breaks in late JUly are among the biggest model moves.

There is no doubt that we presently have an exaggerated case measuring the size of the correction so far measured against time spent. Although, as said above, the USD may still have more ground to gain in coming weeks or months, long term corrections do not come on a straight line but rather in big waves i.e. forming interim big retracements. $/CHF has formed such waves since its bottom in March, but EUR/$ has not and also its top was mace July and practically its decline has been on a straight line both on the weekly and the monthly charts, therefore a corrective upmove that would last for a few days or perhaps 1-2 weeks has yet to be seen. As you know, I have not at all tried since returning from my summer break to catch the EUR/$ falling knife trying to bottom fish thanks to the model direction. However what I wrote above on normal formations and a nearly 95 TC are telling me that this current downleg is pretty much overdone. But try to remember that such high TCs usually generate short term price aberrations, which is reasonable given that the market tends to become very wild and sometimes non technical the more it is approaching extreme levels."


 

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