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FX Blog- Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook for September 7, 2008

US Currency Outlook -- Forex Currency Pairs


Forex Currency Pairs




September 7, 2008

Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs


The Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

Bubbles, bubbles, bubbles� This is the bubble era, dot-coms, real estate, commodities, etc., and now the euro. It is a characteristic of a bubble that asset valuations get wildly overvalued. Bubbles then collapse after the last greater fool has gotten long.

The last several days have seen risk aversion resurface in key markets. Investors are rushing into government bonds and dumpimg equities. They are selling carry tade positions and buying back the low interest rate currencies (i.e. JPY) that are financing them. Favored carry trade investment vehicles AUD, NZD and EUR are hurting from these liquidations. These have been long-standing plays, so there is a lot to be unwound.

Worry about a new bout of economic weakness has triggered intensified interest in another round of Fed ease. This has not impacted the USD yet because the interest has been elsewhere.




Click on chart for two year history

At its meeting on Thursday, the ECB kept its official target rate for its refi rate steady, but it took a technical step which effectively raised the cost of refi financing for financial institutions using certain types of collateral for financing loans by the central bank. Dealers are seeing this as an inappropriate policy tightening by the ECB. The past week saw the release of more weak economic data from the Euro-zone. The data reinforce the view that a slowing global economy, an overly tight monetary policy and an overvalued EUR have been taking their toll on the Euro-zone. Dealers see the single-minded inflation-targeting policy of the ECB a major negative for the currency.

We remain positive the USD against the leading European currencies (EUR, CHF and GBP). The JPY has been playing the role as an anti-EUR currency and can�t be counted on any more to trade closely with the European currencies vs. the USD.

Demand for the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) is driven by market perceptions about demand for commodities. Such demand is thought to be generated by the global economic growth. As the global economy slows, this bloc of currencies can only weaken against the USD.



Click on chart for two year history

As for the market dynamics, dealers are no longer on the fence for EUR/USD, and still lean in the direction of a higher USD in a longer term time perspective. Our best guess is that the current correction phase is temporary.




Click on chart for two year history




Click on chart for two year history



John M. Bland is a co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelor�s degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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