London and New York appeared to
view the USD sell-off sparked by the Fannie/Freddie takeover as an ideal
opportunity to resume buying dollars, at cheaper prices. GBP/USD
among those hardest hit, sinking 4 cents to dip below 1.7500 in NY, with
pessimism over the UK and
Eurozone economies unchanged. US equities had their expected bounce, the DJIA
+265pts in late trade, with financials leading the charge with a couple of
exceptions: LEH -12% on bearish analyst notes and of course FNM and FRE both
about -85%. Oil prices fit with the USD recovery, NYMEX crude firmly rebuffed
after a squeeze through $109/bbl, backing off to the $106/bbl region. NZD/USD
to Fridayâ€™s levels in the low 0.67s from 0.6800 in early London and with a
visit to 0.6650 on the way.
the 0.8300 level in the London morning and
tumbled below 0.8080 in NY before steadying to 0.8160.
handle in Asian trade Monday proved short-lived, with London seeing
largely one-way traffic, much of it reportedly Russia rebalancing
its FX reserves (having sold USD recently to defend the ruble). By the NY
afternoon it had fallen as far as 1.4054 before edging back over 1.4100.
few takers in a probe above 109.00 and unwound to the 108 area as traders
reconsidered the appeal of being long yen crosses.
Fedâ€™s Fisher commented that the rescue package for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
came after Fed examiners determined that the agenciesâ€™ capital was too low and
of poor quality. On the economy, he retained his hawkish tone, saying that
recent evidence of price pass-through was â€śdisturbingâ€ť, and questioning whether
businesses will pass on recent falls in oil and other commodity prices.
bank lending growth steady in August. Headline growth was unchanged at 1.8%yr,
while the ex-trust bank measure was steady at 2.0%yr. The core (ex
securitisations and write-offs) decelerated a touch to 2.4%yr. We feel that
bank credit will remain around these levels for a few months on working capital
demands, before decelerating on softer capex demand. The economy watchers
survey was also out today. It underscores the pessimism gripping Japanâ€™s decision
Sentix investor confidence falls from 15 to 20 in Sep. This was exactly
in line with Westpacâ€™s forecast and reflects investor angst about a range of
factors, including looming recession, a conservative central bank and problems
producer prices have peaked and are now falling. The August
PPI saw falls across the board, for input, output and core output prices,
pulling the various annual rates down sharply. This should give the Bank of
England some confidence that upside risks to inflation are receding, and adds
to the case for a near-term rate cut.
building permits rose 1.8% in July, following a 5.3% drop in June. This is a
volatile series from month to month, but the number of permits has held up
surprisingly well since the 17% surge in April.
broadly neutral NZD/USD but bearish NZD vs AUD ahead of the expected RBNZ rate
cut on Thursday. The 0.6650 area should remain support for NZD/USD.
Release Last Forecast
Aus Aug NAB
Business Survey â€“5 â€“
Finance â€“3.7% 1.5%
Sales %mth â€“1.0% 0.4%
US Jul Pending
Home Sales 5.3% â€“2.5%
Economic Optimism 42.8 44.0
Wholesale Inventories 1.1% 0.5%
UK Aug BRC
Retail Survey %yr â€“0.9% â€“
House Prices net bal % â€“83.9% â€“85.0%
Industrial Production â€“0.2% â€“0.3%
Housing Starts â€“13.6% 4.0%
â€˘ NZ Agribiz
September 2008 (8 September)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (8 September)
â€˘ RBNZ MPS
Preview (5 September)
milk (5 September)
building (4 September)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 September)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (25 August)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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