User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday September 9, 2008 - 16:58:59 GMT
Larry Greenberg - currencythoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Euroland: The Feel of a Recession

Second-quarter growth was negative 0.8% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate with drops of 4.6% saar in business investment, 1.5% in exports, and 0.6% in personal consumption mitigated by a rise of 2.2% in public expenditures.  I think third-quarter growth is going to be negative as well, and the fourth quarter will be at best scantly positive.  To be fair, real GDP had advanced 2.7% saar in 1Q08 and by a brisk 2.5% per annum between 1Q05 and 1Q08.  A slowdown was needed anyway to contain the buildup of inflationary pressures. ECB officials still think the worst of this lull will fall into 2Q and 3Q.  If correct, the cycle will soon stabilize and then start to improve.  However, forward-looking indications of sentiment were still deteriorating in August.  Overall economic sentiment that month in the Bloc fell to 88.8 from 89.5 in July and quarterly averages of 96.5 in 2Q08 and 100.5 in 1Q08.  Euroland’s PMI trends have been much weaker than their U.S. counterparts.

  U.S. Ezone   U.S. Ezone   Sum of
  Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
January 44.6 50.6 -6.0 50.7 52.8 -2.1 -8.1
February 49.3 52.3 -3.0 48.3 52.3 -4.0 -7.0
March 49.6 51.6 -2.0 48.6 52.0 -3.4 -5.4
April 52.0 52.0 0.0 48.6 50.7 -2.1 -2.1
May 51.7 50.6 +1.1 49.6 50.6 -1.0 +0.1
June 48.2 49.1 -0.9 50.2 49.2 +1.0 +0.1
July 49.5 48.3 +1.2 50.0 47.4 +2.6 +3.8
August 50.6 48.5 +2.1 49.9 47.6 +2.3 +4.4

 

Germany, followed by France, Italy and Spain in that order, are the Euro-zone’s largest economies.  The top three posted negative growth in 2Q, while Spain eked out a marginal uptick of 0.4% saar.  Dutch growth was -0.2%, while GDP increased in Greece, Finland, Belgium and Portugal.  If Germany does well, so does Euroland usually, but the converse is equally true.  And Germany is not displaying the kind of resilience that had been hoped.  Industrial orders in the region’s biggest economy have not recorded an increase since November and were 3.8% lower in July than their 2Q mean, with drops of 6.6% in domestic orders for capital goods — a portent of a continuing contraction of business spending — and 2.7% in export orders.  Industrial production was 2.4% lower in July than its 2Q average level.  The volume of retail sales on a similar comparative basis was down about 3.0%.  Between January and July, exports slipped 0.9%, whereas imports rose by 5.1%.  Germany had been hitting on all but one cylinder, the exception being private consumption.  Now, consumption remains in the doldrums, and exports and business investment have joined it.  The German trade surplus in July of EUR 11.8 billion was substantially below June’s EUR 18.9 billion and the EUR 16.9 billion per month pace from last October through June 2008.  In Euroland as a whole, real retail sales fell 3.5% in 2Q and were 0.8% lower in July than the 2Q level.

The ECB raised its key rate in July by 25 basis points to 4.25%, and the anti-inflation tone of last week’s press conference suggests that this move will not be reversed until 2009 and probably not at the start of next year, either. Producer prices in the Bloc rose 11.2% saar in 2Q08 and by 9.0% in the year to July.  Officials maintain that the risks surrounding an above-target forecast of CPI inflation next year of 2.3 - 2.9% still lie to the upside despite a few hopeful signs.  Moreover, more restrictive requirements for collateral covering the ECB’s special liquidity infections are likely to augment the tightness of credit market conditions when they take effect in February.  A very important export market, Britain, has darker clouds over its economy than even the ones surrounding the euro area.  The United States economy did better than feared in 1H08, but prospects still look ominous in light of falling employment and a 1.1 percentage point jump in the jobless rate between April and August.

Not all the news is adverse.  World oil prices have tumbled about 30% since mid-July.  The euro is around 12% below its dollar peak.  Inflation has probably crested and will be subsiding, paving the way for the ECB to cut rates next year.  Much is riding on the continuing resilience of demand from emerging markets.  Maybe too much.  Most private analysts, myself included, suspect that growth at least over the the coming three quarters to mid-2009 will be weaker than the ECB assumes.  Some expect the malaise to persist through all of next year.  When it’s all over, a recession lasting more than two quarters will have played out, and market participants will be left to wonder yet again if Euroland will ever manage to decouple itself from a U.S. economic downturn.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105