User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday September 9, 2008 - 19:11:20 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics - www.fxa.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Blog - US Treasury Takes GSEs off Table, Plenty Else To Worry About

The weekend takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was long overdue and based on how markets traded Friday, including rumors we reported of an imminent announcement from Secretary Paulson, one of the worst kept secrets.  So it is not surprising to look at asset prices and the financial sector, the most closely linked to the health of the mortgage market, and things still look radically bad.  US stocks have reversed about a third of Monday’s rally (DJIA – NASDAQ never participated).  Lehman, a security house most closely associated with the mortgage market, is rapidly seeing its market cap slip away as the press reports it is at the capital raising dance and no one wants to extend a hand.  Citigroup today was surpassed by Wells Fargo as the third largest US bank by market capital (wonder what the comparison would be on a per-employee basis?).  And a development that I think says a lot about the state of markets (Bill Gross’s mayday call is still relevant) is the surge in the yen…margin calls galore this week in the carry trade ripping out Mrs. Watanabe’s eyeballs (retail FX traders in Japan). 

 

If banks can't get capital in private market, which is the Lehman story, where is it going to come from?  Can the US gvt open its balance sheet to large US banks to lift capital maybe for preferred shares?  Maybe the shares go up over time maybe not.  Lehman today and who tomorrow?  SWFs are saying no thank you.  Private equity is saying no thank you.  What are Paulson and Bernanke saying…banks need to raise capital.  What was wrong with Fannie and Freddie?  Weak capital bases and no ability to raise new capital in private markets.

 

Now we see the auto companies getting access to the government’s balance sheet via the back door of a Congressional stimulus bill for $25bln in government guaranteed (and subsidized at below market rates) loans.  I wonder what access I would have to the Fed’s or Treasury’s balance sheet of I could not make ends meet?  Maybe I could assert I am too connected to fail and qualify for access to the discount window where I could post my flat panel TV and boat as collateral. 

 

Capital markets are still broken after Sunday’s historic if only temporary takeover of two of the largest publicly traded firms in US history.  The takeover helps the mortgage market function with adequate financing and keeps GSE debt holders whole (like much needed foreign central banks and state run banks), but it also is another signal of just how bad things have gotten.  Paulson said Sunday this was an action he never wanted to take, but was forced to and one even forced upon the CEOs of Fannie and Freddie (who at first resisted the takeover offer and then caved when said they had no choice – since reports have Syron and Mudd describing the meeting Saturday as a mugging). 

 

In terms of FX the message I get from markets is not in the popular narrative which goes like this…the capital markets are reacting to signs of slower global growth and slower European growth to be exact.  Sorry but this all about running from risk and running from leverage and a hell of a lot less about expectations of Fed tightening when Fed officials aside from a few malcontents are worried about the economy slowing more (Yellen said can’t rule out more easing) and expectations of ECB easing when ECB officials are uniformly worried about higher inflation and not worried enough about weak growth to rule out more rate hikes. 

 

I don’t have any confidence that at least half of the knock-your-socks-off dollar rally is anything more than a massive deleveraging and risk aversion trade…real money long European equities (and Asian equities) getting around to repatriating.  If anything this is not unlike what happened in the early throes of the start of the credit crisis which saw the dollar surge versus the euro and the yen explode higher.  I am not suggesting that once the market is out of risk it will be a return to a record dollar low versus the euro, but I do think we are due to see a healthy retracement of the 20cent move from 1.60 to 1.40 in 8 weeks (wow). 

 

And like a giant domino knockdown game, CDS, HELOC, Alt-A, Option ARM, credit cards. CMBS, auto loans and student loans all stand waiting in turn to be knocked down.  This could take months to unfold and no amount of government intervention can prevent these credit segments from suffering a severe repricing.  Yes a bottoming in housing would help.  But how can the housing market bottom with the US labor market not in an asymptotic retreat? 

 

Where is their a market for capital ahead?  In safety – cash, gold, resource companies on the cheap, AAA govies (more foreign AAA govies than US in light of opening of the balance sheet of the gvt) and now agencies. 

 

David Gilmore

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105