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Wednesday September 10, 2008 - 11:03:48 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: EU Commision lowers its 2008 GDP forecast; sees possible 'significant' downside it 2009 growth view


- (RU) Russia Q2 GDP Y/Y: 7.5% v 7.6%

- (FR) July Industrial Production: M/M 1.2% v 0. 2%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.6%e

- (FR) July Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.5% v 0.2%e ; Y/Y: -2.3% v -3.2%

- (FR) July Trade Balance: -€4. 8B v -€5.0Be

- (CZ) Czech July Industrial Output Y/Y: 6.7% v 5. 7%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 7.0% v 2.1% prior; July Construction Output Y/Y: % v -2.8% prior

- (CZ) Czech Q2 GDP Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.5% prior

- (DE) Denmark August CPI M/M: 0.2% v -0.3%e ; Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.9%;CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v -0.2; Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.4%e

- (SW) Sweden July Industrial Production M/M:1.2 % v -0.3%; Y/Y: 0.9% v -2. 0%e

- (SW) Sweden Industrial Orders M/M: 1.0% v 4.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6% prior

- (IT) Trade Balance Non-EU: -€1.64B v -€2.6B prior

- (NO) Norway August Producer Prices Incl. Oil M/M: -1.3% v - 2.5%e; Y/Y: 33.8% v 32.2%e

- (NO) Norway August CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.6%e; CPI Underlying M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8%e

- (SW) Sweden August AMV Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 2.8%

- (UK) July Visible Trade Balance: -£7.7B v -£7.5Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£4.7B v -£4.5Be;Total Trade Balance: -£4.6B v -£4. oe

- (IT) Q2 GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.0%e;

- (EU) European Commission Released Economic Growth Forecast; lowers its 2008 GDP forecast to 1.1% from 1.7% prior view.


Lehman Brother [LEH] KDB stated that its talks with LEH have ended due to disagreement over terms and financial market conditions. KDB stated it did make an offer, which the Far East press reported that KDB sought over 25% stake for around $6B ||HSBC [HSBA.UK] Asia CEO stated that not likely buy an investment bank || Total [FP.FR] to raise its interim dividend to EUR1.14 from EUR1.0 prior || Bayer [BAY.GE] Signed licensing agreement with Nagasaki University to intensify research on Alzheimer's || Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] Confirmed press speculation that it will cut 500 jobs at Calyon || Barrett Development [BDEV.UK] Reported FY Rev £3.55B v £3.43Be; Pretax ex-items £392.3M v £378e; Company noted that its Op Margin fell to 15.5% compared to 16.9% year ago. Like for like completions fall 13.8%, Like for like op margin fell 1.7% Average selling prices rises 6% and to pay no final dividend || Next [NXT.UK] reported H1 Net £123.3M v £119.5Me, Rev £1.5B v £1.54B y/y. Company stated that it did not expect a recovery in consumer spending within next 6 months || Deutsche Bank's CEO Ackermann stated that the financial markets remain extremely nervous, but added that the crisis is at the"beginning of end". He added that a phase of stabilization is seen in credit markets. DB chief added that he has no interest in buying either a portion or the entire brokerage operations of LEH. || Philips [PHIA.NV] stated that it would introduce ongoing price increases ' across many of its businesses. The co. will take further measures to respond to higher prices

- says price increases not only for consumer prices and it would limit the impact of 'rapidly deteriorating' economy.

In Speakers: ECB's Trichet testified to the EU Parliament in
Brussels where he reiterated many of his views voiced from the Sept post ECB rate decision. Trichet reiterated that there remains a very strong concern regarding the potential the second round effects of inflation and must continue to avoid them. Thus, Inflation is likely to remain high for some period of time. Trichet stated that he sees persistent tensions on money markets and that the underlying pace of monetary expansion remained strong . On the growth front, Trichet stated that the Eurozone suffers from weak activity, but that the current slowdown to be followed by gradual recovery, noting that the recent drop in oil prices will help boost disposable income. ||ECB's Liikanen stated that global growth is slowing and highlighted by the drop in oil demand. || EU's Juncker stated that one could see a “Technical Recession” in the EuroZone; adding that the slowdown could be longer than previously thought. Juncker reiterated that wage-price spiral must be avoided; says recent USD rise and oil price fall are reasons for optimism. ||(SP) Spain Prime Minister stated that inflation should drop below 4% by the end of 2008. Lastly the Danish Government announced a cabinet reshuffling

- In Fixed Income: There was a bit of supply issued during the session. (GE) German sold 6.5B in its 2010 Schatz with an average yield of 3.91% and a bid-to-cover of 1.45 times.

Sweden sold SEK2.0 in 4.25% 2019 bonds with an average yield of 3.87%. the bid-to-cover was 2.6 times.

- In Energy: IEA monthly report for August lowered its demand forecast for both 2008 and 2009, citing weaker OECD deleiveries. IEA noted the impact of slower growth and that high prices are "more marked". IEA added that it saw considerable uncertainty over the impact of hurricanes. Lastly, it noted that oil prices remain very high. || In
Nigeria reportedly militants hijacked a vessel with 13 oil personnel. || OPEC appointed Angola Oil Minister as its next President, to replace Khelil. || The Iranian Oil Minister Nozari noted OPEC's output decision was the correct one and will help markets reach sustainable conditions.

- In currencies the USD rebounded from session lows following the EU Commission lowering of its Eurozone GDP outlook. USD also aided by the German press reports that the IMG would lower
Germany's 2009 GDP outlook. EUR/USD remains in a 1.41 to 1.42 range as experienced over the last 24 hours. EUR/JPY cross holding above the critical support of 150, where dealers noting that some Euro sell stop order building below. Risk aversion remains relevant as markets participants await the resolution of the situations surrounding LEH.

. *** NOTES ***

The market is mostly about Lehman Brothers today [LEH] as it will reports its quarterly earnings one week early to quell market suspicions about its financial health. Earlier in
Europe, Korea's KDB stated that its talks with LEH have ended due to disagreement over terms and financial market. OPEC announced a 'surprised' production cut but dealers noting that the suspension of member Indonesia that it might not be a production cut after all. Europe again highlighted the debate over growth and inflation as ECB's Trichet reiterated concerns over possible secondary effects of inflation (note: China Aug cpi much lower than expected. In Asia), while the EU Commission lowered its 2008 GDP forecast to 1.4% from prior forecast of 1.7%, added that it saw possible 'significant' reduction to its 2009 growth view.

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