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Tuesday November 30, 2004 - 00:41:13 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 30th November 2004

Price: ... 102.95

Resistance: 103.13 ... 103.42 ... 103.69 ... 104.17
Support....: 102.79 ... 102.55 ... 102.16 ... 102.00

Bias: We continue to prefer price remaining below 102.98-103.13 and for losses to 100.84

Bullish: We still feel the upside is limited and see resistance at 102.98 and 103.13 which we feel will continue to hold. Thus, only a break above 103.13 would allow price to drift into the 103.13-103.42 area. A break above 103.42 is required to provoke follow-through higher back to 103.69 and probably the 104.20-40 area.

Bearish: The 103.13 area should hold any gains and while this is the case, a dip back below 102.79 would assist the bearish view. This would allow a decline back to the 102.46-55 support which we feel will break and allow further losses down below 102.00 and onto the 101.42-60 area. This may hold temporarily but while any pullback remains below 102.30-40 we expect losses to reach the ideal 100.84 target.



Elliott Wave Comments:

November 29th 2004

The downside in Wave [c] continues and has an ideal target (wave equality) at 100.84. We also have a daily target for Wave [iii] at 102.00 and a larger Wave C implied target (Wave A x 138.2%) at 101.60. However, we tend to see the next Wave C target (Wave A x 161.8%) at 99.75 as a probable target but only after a correction. Within this decline we have a 61.8% Wave (v) target at 100.84 also which is close to a Wave c target within Wave (v). Thus we prefer the lower target at 100.84 as the stopping point for this decline.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004

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