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Wednesday September 10, 2008 - 20:40:57 GMT
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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Thursday 11 September 2008


News and views

USD Index was comparatively quiet in early London morning but gained about 0.7% in New York. The Lehman Bros announcements ($3.9bn Q3 loss vs forecast $2.2bn, sale of assets) didn’t have a lasting impact on FX or LEH shares themselves which opened a little firmer but faded into the close for a loss, in line with many jittery financials. The DJIA overall clung to modest gains and slight weakening in oil prices (NYMEX crude back under $103/bbl) helped the dollar somewhat. NZD/USD had a fairly quiet countdown to the RBNZ decision, easing from a little over 0.6700 to 0.6650/60 late NY.


AUD/USD was choppy at times but ultimately softer, fading to 0.8030 in late NY trade.


EUR/USD was undermined by the European Commission’s forecast for a “technical” recession in Germany and Eurogroup chairman Juncker’s view that the euro is still overvalued, slipping from 1.4150 in the London morning to 1.4040 by late NY, with a low of 1.4012.


USD/JPY slid from 107.50 to its 106.58 low after the Lehmans statement but rebounded to the 107.60-80 area. The pair found some support on rumours of a Jiji report that Japan’s sovereign debt rating was to be downgraded.


No US data to report.


Japanese corporate goods price inflation decelerated in August. The domestic corporate goods price index rose 7.2%yr in August, down from 7.3% in July. The index fell 0.1% in the month.


Japan’s current account improved in July. The seasonally adjusted surplus widened to ¥1556bn in July from a slim ¥1291bn in June. The two main factors lifting the overall position were that trade balance widened on softer imports, and the services deficit narrowed. The income balance was relatively stable at ¥1.5trn. As for the unadjusted data, the surplus widened sharply to ¥1531bn from ¥494bn, with the income surplus driving this outcome. The unadjusted surplus was poorly recycled, with just ¥1140bn exiting via the capital and financial accounts.


European Commission downgrades growth forecasts. The EC is now formally forecasting recessions this year in Germany, Spain and the UK, and essentially flat growth in Euroland over the remainder of this year.


French industrial production rebounded 1.2% in July, following a cumulative decline of 3.6% in May-June. Consumer goods production and auto output were behind the rise.


UK trade deficit narrows in July. The global visible trade balance narrowed from £8.0bn to £7.7bn, reflecting strength in exports, which rose to a two year high. Imports also rose, but by less.


Canadian labour productivity down 0.2% in Q2, its third consecutive quarter of decline (something not seen since 1990). Consequently unit labour costs rose 1.2%.



We are broadly neutral NZD/USD but bearish NZD vs AUD, assuming no great shocks from the RBNZ statement today.


With contributions from Westpac Economics


Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast

NZ RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement 8.00% 7.75%

Aug Food Prices 0.6% –

Aus Aug Employment/Unemployment 10.9k/4.3% 10k/4.3%

Sep MI Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.9% –

Sep WBC-MI Unemployt Expectations –0.6% –

US Jul Trade Balance $bn –56.8 –55.7

Aug Import Prices 1.7% –2.0%

Initial Jobless Claims w/e 6/9 444k 450k

Aug Federal Budget $bn –117.0 –105.0

Jpn Jul Machinery Orders –2.6% –4.0%

Eur ECB Monthly Report

Can Jul Trade Balance C$bn 5.8 5.3

Jul New House Prices 0.1% flat


Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Q2 Terms of Trade (10 September)

• NZ Agribiz September 2008 (8 September)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (8 September)

• RBNZ MPS Preview (5 September)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (




Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



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