was comparatively quiet in early London morning but
gained about 0.7% in New York. The Lehman
Bros announcements ($3.9bn Q3 loss vs forecast $2.2bn, sale of assets) didnâ€™t
have a lasting impact on FX or LEH shares themselves which opened a little
firmer but faded into the close for a loss, in line with many jittery
financials. The DJIA overall clung to modest gains and slight weakening in oil
prices (NYMEX crude back under $103/bbl) helped the dollar somewhat. NZD/USD
a fairly quiet countdown to the RBNZ decision, easing from a little over 0.6700
to 0.6650/60 late NY.
choppy at times but ultimately softer, fading to 0.8030 in late NY trade.
undermined by the European Commissionâ€™s forecast for a â€śtechnicalâ€ť recession in
Germany and Eurogroup
chairman Junckerâ€™s view that the euro is still overvalued, slipping from 1.4150
in the London morning to
1.4040 by late NY, with a low of 1.4012.
from 107.50 to its 106.58 low after the Lehmans statement but rebounded to the
107.60-80 area. The pair found some support on rumours of a Jiji report that Japanâ€™s sovereign
debt rating was to be downgraded.
data to report.
corporate goods price inflation decelerated in August. The domestic
corporate goods price index rose 7.2%yr in August, down from 7.3% in July. The
index fell 0.1% in the month.
current account improved in July. The seasonally adjusted surplus widened to
ÂĄ1556bn in July from a slim ÂĄ1291bn in June. The two main factors lifting the
overall position were that trade balance widened on softer imports, and the
services deficit narrowed. The income balance was relatively stable at ÂĄ1.5trn.
As for the unadjusted data, the surplus widened sharply to ÂĄ1531bn from ÂĄ494bn,
with the income surplus driving this outcome. The unadjusted surplus was poorly
recycled, with just ÂĄ1140bn exiting via the capital and financial accounts.
Commission downgrades growth forecasts. The EC is now formally
forecasting recessions this year in Germany, Spain and the UK, and essentially
flat growth in Euroland over the remainder of this year.
industrial production rebounded 1.2% in July, following a cumulative
decline of 3.6% in May-June. Consumer goods production and auto output were
behind the rise.
trade deficit narrows in July. The global visible trade balance narrowed
from ÂŁ8.0bn to ÂŁ7.7bn, reflecting strength in exports, which rose to a two year
high. Imports also rose, but by less.
labour productivity down 0.2% in Q2, its third consecutive quarter of decline
(something not seen since 1990). Consequently unit labour costs rose 1.2%.
broadly neutral NZD/USD but bearish NZD vs AUD, assuming no great shocks from
the RBNZ statement today.
contributions from Westpac Economics
Release Last Forecast
Monetary Policy Statement 8.00% 7.75%
Prices 0.6% â€“
Employment/Unemployment 10.9k/4.3% 10k/4.3%
Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.9% â€“
Unemployt Expectations â€“0.6% â€“
US Jul Trade
Balance $bn â€“56.8 â€“55.7
Prices 1.7% â€“2.0%
Jobless Claims w/e 6/9 444k 450k
Budget $bn â€“117.0 â€“105.0
Machinery Orders â€“2.6% â€“4.0%
Trade Balance C$bn 5.8 5.3
House Prices 0.1% flat
â€˘ NZ Q2
Terms of Trade (10 September)
â€˘ NZ Agribiz
September 2008 (8 September)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (8 September)
â€˘ RBNZ MPS
Preview (5 September)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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