Thursday September 11, 2008 - 10:59:19 GMT
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FX Blog - EUR/USD - How Long Without A Retracement?Click here for more information on GVI ForexFrom GVI Forex:
GVI Forex Jay 10:49 GMT September 11, 2008
I had a chat with a friend last night who asked whether the move in the euro has been the result of covert intervention or deleveraging. I answered the latter and this has led to a relentless liquidating market. This type of market seems to give the impression of a potential pause at each new low as anyone with a technical background asks how long the fall (now 2100+ pips) can take place without a a retracement. Then, the next wave of risk aversion/liquidation takes over and new lows (dollar highs, yen cross highs) are made. This is where we stand now, once again, with a low just below 1.39. Liquidating markets, especially one like this one that has gone on for so long, are tough for the average trader who likes to take the other side and play for a counter trend move.
Suggest using pivotal big figures, now focused on 1.40 on the top to guide the market bias and 1.38 as the next target on the downside. This suggests market will look to sell upticks while below 1.40 and reassess if 1.40+ trades again.
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