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Thursday September 11, 2008 - 11:27:14 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Risk aversion and de-leveraging highlights global price action



·*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (GE) August Wholesale Price Index: M/M: -1.8% v - 0.2%e; Y/Y: 7.4% v 8.6%e

- (FR) Q2 Non-Farm Payrolls: -0.2% v -0. 1%e

- (SP) August CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.9%e

- (SP) August Core CPI M/M: 0.3% v -0.9% prior. Y/Y 3.5% v 3.4%e

- (SP) August CPI (EU-Harmonized): M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.9%

- (SW) August Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 5.8%

- (SW) July Activity Index Level: 123.6 v 123.4 prior

- (UK) 1-Year Inflation expectations at 4.4% v 4.3% prior

- (IC) Iceland Sed

·*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equity news: overnight: Conergy [CGY.GE] was trading higher with its strength attributed to chatter LG Electronics may seek to buy a manufacturer of solar cells || BG Group [BG.UK] Announced the completeion of drilling on its Iara well, adding that the exploration well discovered 26-30 API gravity crude oil. || William Morrison [MRW.U] Reported H1 results with its Net coming in at £218M compared to £225M y/y; its revenues at £7.11B just ahead of consensus estimates of £7.02B along with its Pretax profit of £309M compared to £300M estimates. || Home retail [HOME.UK] Reported Q2 Underlying Profit £49.1M v £49.4M y/y; Rev £389M v £354.7M y/y, Like-for-Like change in homebase sales -8.3%

CEO says company is looking at writedown of house values in H1 of several hundred million || Premier Farnell [PFL.UK] Reported Q2 Op profit £22M v £20.5M y/y; Pretax £18.1M v £16.3M y/y; Rev £195.8M v £178.9M y/y. The co. noted that continued robust performance in MDD North America, with sales growth of 5.5% in the second quarter and 5.8%. || Nordex [NDX1.GE] was awarded a €500M contract to build turbines from Scan energy.

- ECB Papademos stated that global growth was slowing down significantly while inflation remained at high levels. Europe remains in disadvantage in trade relations with China. He added that the appreciation of Yuan against the Euro was a welcomed development. He noted that both China and EuroZone were facing challenges from global slowdown and financial market turmoil.

- ECB Mersch: Past oil prices increases can add to inflation; Euro currency remains at elevated levels.

- France Fin Min Legarde stated that French GDP was expected to grow at 1% in 2008 ' but added that doubts over US economic recovery linger. He added that declining property values will continue in France, but it would not be as tough as those seen in the US, Spain.

- German IFW institute lowered its 2009 growth forecast citing weaker export growth

- BOE's King noted credit conditions have tightened and short-term growth prospects have decreased. King noted that expects to write open letter on inflation. MPC must prevent protracted period of inflation, which is being compounded by the weakening sterling currency. King added that BoE proposal will not solve current funding issues

BOE's Dove Blanchflower stated that he saw a quite large rise in unemployment looming. Adding that the increase in unemployment may be "front loaded". Blanchflower noted that he foresee a deeper decline in GDP compared to other members of MPC, and that any recovery would likely take longer to unfold. Expected several months of +60k in UK jobless and that Inflation could spike up to 5% next month but then drop sharply from there adding that too much concern on one months inflation number.

- BOE's Bean: expressed that a broad economic slowdown is seen over next year and some time before credit crisis dissipated. The recent decline in sterling FX rate is a positive factor that will help boost UK exports.

- BOE's Tucker stated that short-term money markets are in better conditions compared to a year ago, but banks need to raise additional capital. He noted that banking conditions are difficult, not dire

- ECB Monthly report for September echoed the ECB press conference earlier this month. ECB reiterated that upside risks for inflation remain and downside risks to growth. The report Inflationary expectations remains at a "worrisome" level. On the upside it noted that the recent drop in oil prices could help increase disposable income. But the report continues to stress inflationary concerns particularly as wage growth picks up as labor productivity declines. The ECB reiterated that it is Imperative to avoid broad-based second round effects of inflation and the current interest rate policy will help ensure price stability will be achieved.

- (UK) BOE Quarterly Inflation Expectations at 4.4%, highest since 1999

- In the papers: WSJ Heard on the Street commented on Lehman's restructuring plan [LEH]. Article noted that its share price could still declined on concerns that the company may have trouble executing its plan and investors are waiting for the company to do a deal.

- In Fixed Income supply : Italy sold €2.5B 4.25% 2013 Bonds, with an avg yield of 4.38%, bid-to-cover 1.48x v 1. 45x prior. Italy also sold €2B 5% 2039 Bonds, avg yield 5.20%, bid-to- cover 1.45x v 1.39x prior.

- In energy: IEA Chief Tanaka states that he hopes Saudi Arabia will maintain current output levels and seeks sufficient supply from oil producers. He noted that oil producers to ensure sufficient supply in the markets yet capacity expansion plans did not match demand growth forecasts. Does not see any demand slowing in China, India and Middle East. Lastly that India and China must stop fuel subsidies

- || Barclays lowered Q4 to $97.50 per barrel from 123.90 prior view. Their 2009 oil forecast cut to $115.50 from $123.20. It left its 2010 oil forecast unchanged at this time. Overall Barclays cited the revisions to wekening demand.

- In currencies: EUR/USD tested fresh 1-year lows below the 1.39 handle and firmer against other major European pairs. The USD assisted that the economic slowdown would be larger in Europe moving forward compared to the situation in the States. Risk aversion helping JPY firm across the board. EUR/JPY breaking below its 200- week moving average for the firm time since early 2002 and below the lows seen in Aug 2007 in the heat of the subprime meltdown. Lower commodities are also contributing to the USD's advance so front month NYMEX approaches the $100 area and gold below $750 per oz.



·*** NOTES ***

Dealers and traders noting that risk aversion has been intertwined with deleveraging over the past few weeks and again this session as equities slump over 1% ahead of the NY morning. Concerns about the resolution of the LEH problems continue to remain on the front burner, highlighted by a WSJ article today. Deleveraging factors also continues to result in the unwinding of long EUR positions vs. the USD and JPY currency pairs. Dealers noting that macro funds looking to sell various emerging market currencies aiding the commodity/USD. OIL is approaching the $100 handle while gold is below $750/oz.

-The European central bankers were out in full force with continued comments about slowing economic growth and potential impact of secondary inflation. Dealers continue to note that the ECB remains in a round of “denial” for the most part as the central bank continues to highlight inflationary concerns.

Looking ahead the focus in the NY morning will be on Trade data and jobless claims.

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