In equity news: overnight: Conergy [CGY.GE] was trading higher with its
strength attributed to chatter LG Electronics may seek to buy a
manufacturer of solar cells || BG Group [BG.UK] Announced the completeion
of drilling on its Iara well, adding that the exploration well discovered
26-30 API gravity crude oil. || William Morrison [MRW.U] Reported H1
results with its Net coming in at ¬£218M compared to ¬£225M y/y; its
revenues at ¬£7.11B just ahead of consensus estimates of ¬£7.02B along with
its Pretax profit of ¬£309M compared to ¬£300M estimates. || Home retail
[HOME.UK] Reported Q2 Underlying Profit ¬£49.1M v ¬£49.4M y/y; Rev ¬£389M v
¬£354.7M y/y, Like-for-Like change in homebase sales -8.3%
company is looking at writedown of house values in H1 of several hundred
million || Premier Farnell [PFL.UK] Reported Q2 Op profit ¬£22M v ¬£20.5M y/y;
Pretax ¬£18.1M v ¬£16.3M y/y; Rev ¬£195.8M v ¬£178.9M y/y. The co. noted
that continued robust performance in MDD North America, with sales growth
of 5.5% in the second quarter and 5.8%. || Nordex [NDX1.GE] was awarded a
‚ā¨500M contract to build turbines from Scan energy.
- ECB Papademos
stated that global growth was slowing down significantly while inflation
remained at high levels. Europe remains in disadvantage in trade relations
with China. He added that the appreciation of Yuan against the Euro was a
welcomed development. He noted that both China and EuroZone were facing
challenges from global slowdown and financial market turmoil.
Mersch: Past oil prices increases can add to inflation; Euro currency
remains at elevated levels.
- France Fin Min Legarde stated that
French GDP was expected to grow at 1% in 2008 ' but added that doubts over
US economic recovery linger. He added that declining property values will
continue in France, but it would not be as tough as those seen in the US,
- German IFW institute lowered its 2009 growth forecast
citing weaker export growth
- BOE's King noted credit conditions
have tightened and short-term growth prospects have decreased. King noted
that expects to write open letter on inflation. MPC must prevent protracted
period of inflation, which is being compounded by the weakening sterling
currency. King added that BoE proposal will not solve current funding
BOE's Dove Blanchflower stated that he saw a quite large rise
in unemployment looming. Adding that the increase in unemployment may be
"front loaded". Blanchflower noted that he foresee a deeper decline in GDP
compared to other members of MPC, and that any recovery would likely take
longer to unfold. Expected several months of +60k in UK jobless and that
Inflation could spike up to 5% next month but then drop sharply from there
adding that too much concern on one months inflation number.
Bean: expressed that a broad economic slowdown is seen over next year and
some time before credit crisis dissipated. The recent decline in sterling
FX rate is a positive factor that will help boost UK exports.
BOE's Tucker stated that short-term money markets are in better conditions
compared to a year ago, but banks need to raise additional capital. He
noted that banking conditions are difficult, not dire
- ECB Monthly
report for September echoed the ECB press conference earlier this month.
ECB reiterated that upside risks for inflation remain and downside risks to
growth. The report Inflationary expectations remains at a "worrisome" level.
On the upside it noted that the recent drop in oil prices could help
increase disposable income. But the report continues to stress inflationary
concerns particularly as wage growth picks up as labor productivity
declines. The ECB reiterated that it is Imperative to avoid broad-based
second round effects of inflation and the current interest rate policy will
help ensure price stability will be achieved.
- (UK) BOE Quarterly
Inflation Expectations at 4.4%, highest since 1999
- In the papers:
WSJ Heard on the Street commented on Lehman's restructuring plan [LEH].
Article noted that its share price could still declined on concerns that
the company may have trouble executing its plan and investors are waiting
for the company to do a deal.
- In Fixed Income supply : Italy sold
‚ā¨2.5B 4.25% 2013 Bonds, with an avg yield of 4.38%, bid-to-cover 1.48x v 1.
45x prior. Italy also sold ‚ā¨2B 5% 2039 Bonds, avg yield 5.20%, bid-to-
cover 1.45x v 1.39x prior.
- In energy: IEA Chief Tanaka states that
he hopes Saudi Arabia will maintain current output levels and seeks
sufficient supply from oil producers. He noted that oil producers to ensure
sufficient supply in the markets yet capacity expansion plans did not
match demand growth forecasts. Does not see any demand slowing in China,
India and Middle East. Lastly that India and China must stop fuel
- || Barclays lowered Q4 to $97.50 per barrel from 123.90
prior view. Their 2009 oil forecast cut to $115.50 from $123.20. It left
its 2010 oil forecast unchanged at this time. Overall Barclays cited the
revisions to wekening demand.
- In currencies: EUR/USD tested fresh
1-year lows below the 1.39 handle and firmer against other major European
pairs. The USD assisted that the economic slowdown would be larger in
Europe moving forward compared to the situation in the States. Risk
aversion helping JPY firm across the board. EUR/JPY breaking below its 200-
week moving average for the firm time since early 2002 and below the lows
seen in Aug 2007 in the heat of the subprime meltdown. Lower commodities
are also contributing to the USD's advance so front month NYMEX approaches
the $100 area and gold below $750 per oz.
Dealers and traders noting that risk aversion has been
intertwined with deleveraging over the past few weeks and again this
session as equities slump over 1% ahead of the NY morning. Concerns about
the resolution of the LEH problems continue to remain on the front burner,
highlighted by a WSJ article today. Deleveraging factors also continues to
result in the unwinding of long EUR positions vs. the USD and JPY currency
pairs. Dealers noting that macro funds looking to sell various emerging
market currencies aiding the commodity/USD. OIL is approaching the $100
handle while gold is below $750/oz.
-The European central bankers
were out in full force with continued comments about slowing economic
growth and potential impact of secondary inflation. Dealers continue to
note that the ECB remains in a round of ‚Äúdenial‚ÄĚ for the most part as the
central bank continues to highlight inflationary concerns.
ahead the focus in the NY morning will be on Trade data and jobless claims.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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