- All eyes remain on the financials and in particular Lehman, the firm's
precipitous decline is continuing to drag down markets. Crude is sliding closer
to $100 and the dollar is hitting fresh 1-year highs against the euro. After
holding steady during most of yesteday's session, traders began dumping Lehman
heading into the close, with the name opening down nearly 40% this morning. The
WSJ's Heard on the Street has passed judgment on Lehman's restructuring plan,
noting that the firm may have trouble executing its plans and that many
investors believe an eventual deal for the entire Co. is the best solution. The article also
notes that the plan could reduce the firm's equity by $3.0B, forcing it to sell
even more assets. A crowd of analysts downgraded the name overnight: it was cut
to neutral at Goldman, cut to hold at Citi and cut to hold at Deutsche Bank
(who had added LEH to its short-term buy list just two days ago). JP Morgan,
Merrill and Wachovia analysts cut their EPS loss estimates for the firm.
Yesterday S&P affirmed that it has LEH's ratings on watch negative, but
noted that the firm's near term liquidity is satisfactory. Washington Mutual
opened down significantly again, helped down by Ladenberg's Bove saying the
firm unlikely to book profits until mid- 2010, but the bank is coming off its
worst levels in early trading. Merrill opened -11% and is making fresh lows
below -17%. MS-8%, GS-5%, BAC-4% and C- 4% are all trading sideways mid
morning. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo opened in the red but are defying the trend,
trading up around even mid morning. AIG-17% is feeling the gravity of the other
financials, as well as reports that the insurance giant is reporting exposure
to FRE and FNM of around $550-600M. The airlines have made an impressive
reversal: most of the names in the sector opened around -3% or -4% but the
stocks are headed above 4% mid morning as investors contemplate oil under $100.
In other news, AGN+14% after releasing positive top-line results from a Phase
III study of BOTOX in the treatment of chronic migraine. ALO+3% has jumped up a
notch after King Pharma pledged to move forward with its hostile bid for the
firm at $37/shr, after the ALO board rejected its earlier $33/shr bid.
Investors have jerked LULU around today after the sports apparel maker beat
earnings estimates. After loosing a significant amount of value over the last
week on the decline in commodities, JOYG+5% is retaking some ground after
expanding its buyback by $1.0B. The train has left the station for many of the
rail road names, as the group is moving noticeably higher after CSX +9% raised
- With equity markets opening sharply lower and the JPY showing some real
strength, treasury prices are moving higher and the curve is steeper as risk
aversion remains the underlying theme. Yields have moved up from their lowest
levels but fed fund futures continue to price in better odds of a rate cut late
this year. The Dec contract has seen the odds of a 25 basis point cut trade as
high as 40%.
- In currencies, dealers continue to see a dual theme of risk aversion and de-
leveraging. As the New York markets opened the EUR/USD continued probing fresh
one-year lows below the 1.39 handle while carry-related crosses maintained its
downside bias, with the EUR/JPY testing below the 148 level, breaking its
200-week moving average for the first time since early 2002 and moving below
lows seen in Aug 2007 in the heat of the subprime meltdown. Risk aversion
continues to aid the yen on a broad-based basis.
- Various ECB members continued to share their views. ECB's Papademos
reiterated that broad-based, second-round effects are surfacing but added that
a negative Q3 GDP was unlikely, but still may occur. However, he noted that the
Euro Zone could escape a technical recession. The bottom line is that downside
risks remain in the Euro Zone. German Finance Minister Steinbrueck welcomed
signs of easing in crude oil prices and reaffirmed 2008 GDP growth estimate of
1.7% and 2009 GDP growth of 1.2%.
- The EUR/USD is approaching its six-year uptrend line in the 1.3810 area. The
US July trade balance worsened to -$62.2B (versus estimates of -$58.0B);
declining imports accounted for the deteriorating headline number as they came
in at $203.4B compared to the $221.1B prior reading, which comes from the
period before the recent decline in oil prices. Dealers are noting that various
macro funds are selling emerging market currencies such as the South African
Rand (ZAR), Turkish Lira (TRY), Indian Rupee(INR), Philippine Peso (PHP) and
Brazilian Real (BRL) as credit concerns and lower commodity prices continue the
- Dec Bunds +22 ticks at 115.16; Dec Gilts +33 to 112.48. Euro Stoxx 50 index
-1.6% at 3,188; FTSE - 1.9% at 5,266; CAC 40 -1.9% at 4,201 and DAX Index -1.5%
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
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seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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