saw some volatility as usual but by late NY was little flat versus late Asia- Pacific
trade. Lehman Brosâ shares sank another 45% as it dominated attention again. Moodyâs
warned that to avoid a rating downgrade, LEH needed a âstronger financial partnerâ...
ânear termâ. Wires reported that potential buyers are reviewing Lehmansâ books.
Other financial stocks were also weak, including MER -19%, Wachovia -9% and fresh
18 year lows for Washington Mutual in the final half hour of trade. However,
after opening sharply lower (DJIA -170pts early), equity sentiment improved,
with major indices up about 0.5% near the close. Rumours of an emergency Fed
rate cut swirled. NY oil prices fell as low as $100.10/bbl. European investors
responded to the RBNZâs aggressive easing by marking NZD/USD as low as
0.6441 but the pair quietly recovered to 0.6500 as the DJIA pressed higher.
to 0.7900 in the London morning but
found buyers thereafter and rallied overall, to about 0.8000.
quiet by recent standards, with a low of 1.3882 but back to flat at
the NY close.
risk aversion drove USD/JPY down a full
yen in the London morning to
a low of 106.07 but it ground back to 106.75 in NY as equity markets improved.
trade deficit widened to -$62.2bn in July, capturing the peak in prices of
crude oil imports. However, trade prices for August showed a hefty 3.7% drop in
import prices, as oil reversed during the month, which should see the deficit
drop below $60bn in coming months. Export prices were also fell by 1.7% in
August, with agricultural prices down 9.6%. This will partly reflect the sharp
rise in the US dollar over the month, but also suggests some easing in food
initial jobless claims 445k in the first week of September, from an
upwardly revised 451k the previous week. Though the figures have been distorted
by the promotion of new claims arrangements, which attracted large numbers of
people into claims offices, it is becoming clear that claims have taken a
sizeable step upward in the last few months. Continuing claims also rose
sharply to 3525k from 3403k the previous week.
machinery orders were on expectations in July. The core
measure fell 3.9% in the month, in line with forecasts. That follows a -2.6%
outcome in June and a 10.4% jump in May.
ECB monthly report largely mirrored president Trichetâs recent statements. The report
said that inflation is at a âworrying levelâ and unlikely to reach the âjust
below 2%â target until 2010. Risks to growth are to the downside, but the risk
of a wage-price spiral is still a major concern.
Bank of England
spoke to the Treasury Select Committee, with five MPC members
attending. Super-dove Blanchflower probably captured the most attention with
his pessimistic forecasts, but the other members, including Governor King, were
fairly balanced. King said that lower oil prices meant that inflation would not
peak as high as first thought, but stressed that upside risks to wage and price
home prices rose 0.1% in July, bringing the annual rate of growth down to
2.7%. Slower price gains are consistent with the cooling in sales and building activity
seen this year.
trade surplus narrowed to $4.9bn in July. Exports were strong across all sectors
except energy, as higher fuel prices weighed. Imports were also strong, with an
8% jump in imports from the US.
choice of -50bp provides markets with fresh ammunition to sell NZD, both against
USD and our preferred trade, versus AUD.
Release Last Forecast
Retail Sales 0.9% â0.3%
US Aug PPI
Aug PPI Core
Sales â0.1% 1.0%
Sales Ex Auto 0.4% â0.5%
Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) 63.0 65.0
Inventories 0.7% 0.5%
Jpn Q2 GDP
(F) %qtr â0.6% â0.9%
Industrial Production flat â0.5%
Capacity Utilisation Rate % 79.8% 79.5%
â˘ RBNZ MPS
Review (11 September)
â˘ NZ Q2
Terms of Trade (10 September)
â˘ NZ Agribiz
September 2008 (8 September)
â˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (8 September)
â˘ RBNZ MPS
Preview (5 September)
milk (5 September)
building (4 September)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007
457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14
November 2007. All
customers please note that this information
has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation
or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness,
having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian
customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284
8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided
directly by third parties, and while such material is published with
permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness
of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this
notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which
may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated
for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. ÂŠ
2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator
of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in
character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on
which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by
incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The
ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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