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Monday September 15, 2008 - 13:15:47 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 15-Sep-2008 -1310 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------

 

USD-CHF @ 1.1250/54... Could vacillate between 1.10-1.14
-----------------------------------------------------------------

R: 1.1300 / 1.1325-35 / 1.1375 / 1.1400
S: 1.1265-50 / 1.1215 / 1.1175 / 1.1135
Finding Support at 1.1055, the pair has seen a bounce of over 150-pips during the day. The rise has brought the pair close to a minor Resistance for the day at 1.1280.

If the Resistance holds during the US session, a fall towards 1.1150 could be seen. A break above 1.1280 could lead to a test of 1.1325.

The week ahead could be very volatile and unpredictable. With Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch having been sold out, the picture is getting worse by the day. The FOMC meet tomorrow will be under scrutiny and expected to be one of the most followed of recent times, as there is an increase in speculation in the market about a 25bps rate cut. Keep in mind that it wasn’t even a month ago when the market was speculating on the possibility of a rate hike later this year. Further, we have heard talks of an emergency, mid-term rate cut by the ECB also. All in all, therefore, the market is very murky and it would be best to stay out.

In the bigger picture, the bounce from 1.1055 today possibly reinforces the USD-CHF uptrend that had started from 1.0015 on 15-July. Note the trendline Support at 1.1200 on the Daily Candles. This had been broken momentarily during the day, but the market has bounced back above that. Please take a look at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/chfcandle.shtml


 
GBP-USD @ 1.7855/59... Directionless for now.
------------------------------------------------

R: 1.7920-30 / 1.7975 / 1.8035 / 1.8100
S: 1.7875 / 1.7825-10 / 1.7790 / 1.7765
Facing Resistance near the Max High for the day, at 1.8128, the pair has seen a sharp dip and could now be headed towards Support at 1.7840. The pair has seen a trading range of over 350 pips already in the day, from 1.7760 to 1.8128. Not to forget that the US session is just about to start.

The week ahead could remain volatile between 1.83 and 1.75 and only a break of either of these two levels could determine the direction of the pair from here on. To see the Line chart click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpma.shtml

All in all, though, the Pound is looking a little more bullish than the Euro or the Swiss Franc, as can be seen in the Daily Candles at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml

A rise past 1.8130, if seen, could target 1.85 in the weeks ahead. Support seen at 1.7750.

 

AUD-USD @ 0.8062/65... Sharp fall seen
------------------------------------------
R: 0.8225 / 0.8270 / 0.8320 / 0.8380
S: 0.8050 / 0.8025 / 0.8000 / 0.7965
The Aussie had risen to 0.8265 in the morning, but the Max High for the day at 0.8238 and 13-day SMA at 0.8268 has resulted in a strong fallback later in the day. The pair has dipped considerably in the day, to a low of 0.8000 till now.

The day so far has been very volatile and the week ahead could continue to remain this way. The FOMC tomorrow has suddenly become crucial, as there is an increased speculation that the Fed could cut interest rate by 25bps. However, it remains to be seen how the Fed reacts to all the speculation around.

For the day the pair has some Support at 0.8015-00 and provided it holds, a rise towards 0.82 again cannot be ruled out later this week. To see the chart of the pair click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml


Happy Trading!

 

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