Cia Vale do Rio [RIO] Reportedly company's Inco's steelworkers have ratified a
new 3 yr contract, which includes a 3% base pay increase in 2008 and a 2.5%
hike in 2009. || Novartis [NOVN.SZ} Study shows RAD0111 effective in kidney
cancer, which increases tumor-free survival to 5 months. || Aegon AGN.NV:
Released Details of its Lehman Brothers Exposure and Reiterated Confidence in
the Group's Financial position. It added that it did not hold common equity in
Lehman Brothers. || Ashmore [ASHM.UK] Reporteds FY08 Net profit ¬£140.8M versus
¬£91.4M a year ago; Pretax Profit ¬£196.2M v ¬£131.4M y/y, Rev ¬£244.7M v ¬£163.6M
y/y, Assets under management (AUM) totalled $37.5B compared to $20.1B a year
ago. Profit Margin 76% v 76% y/y. || De La Rue PLC [DLAR.UK] stated that it saw
H1 trading in line with expectations and added that Q2 results are in line with
Company stated that it will maintain a dividend of 305p per share. || Debenhams
[DEB.UK] Reported FY SSS -0.9% y/y; gross transaction value up 1.3% y/; Says
market share was achieved in all major product categories. The company noted
that its Aug trading was markedly better than July. Gross margins was flat y/y.
|| SeaDrill [SDRL.NO] To sell West Hercules, West Taurus for $1.7B to Ship
Finance International. will also lease the units for a 15 Yr period and the
arrangement secures entire Newbuild program. || Danisco[ DCO.DC] sold its
biotechnology company Direvo to Bayer [BAY.GE] for ‚ā¨210M and expected the deal
to close by the end of September. || Michael page [MPI.UK] Switz's Adecco
[ADEN.SZ] stated that it was no longer considering an acqusition of Michael
Page noting that it was unlikely that it could be able to agree a combination
on terms. || Swedbank [SWEDA.SW] stated that it has non-secured exposure in LEH
in amount of SEK202M. || Merck KGAA [MRK.GE] Stated that Erbitux data showed
that it extended survival in colon cancer. || Arcandor stated that it Expected
positive result from refinancing talks. Telecom Italia [TIT.IT] Reportedly co.
may spin off its network division - Italian press || Medigene [MDG.GE] ENDOTAG
improved survival in tests; show 12-month survival benefit
- ECB Nowotny stated that the ECB had reacted to financial market crisis by
injecting additional liquidity into the market; He reiterated that the ECB's
primary mandate remains price stability.
- Current crisis may amplify weaker growth outlook for EuroZone
- Notes that deregulation was too fast and has gone too far
- ECB's Mersch reiterated in a press interview the ECB stand on inflation.
Mersch stated that that he rejects notion that E.U. inflation has peaked and
noted the importance to avoid second round effects.
- UK Chancellor Darling noted that a tigher
regulatory system is necessary in financial markets. Noting that the recent
drop in oil prices was a positive development, Central Banks need to help
through financial turmoil
however uncertainty affecting all nations
- Adds Central Banks need to help through financial turmoil
- EU's Almunia noted that the reaction of regulators was very positive
development in both US and Europe. He added that Central Banks and regulators
are key to market evolution and growth
- French Fin Min Legarde noted that the volatility in interest rate spreads
will make credit more expensive in near term. Also noting that slowing economic
growth may contribute to rising unemployment
- German Fin Min Steinbruck stated in a speech to parliament that he sees
downside risks in Germany resulting from international events. If
the country lapses into a 'technical'
recession it would not be prolonged. The 2008 growth forecast of 1. 7% is
currently being maintained by the ministry, but inflation around 3% level
remains a concern> Lastly the crisis is not over and it wil have impact on
local. The current US financial crisis is the largest ever
- South Korea's Shin noted that Korean officials would
meet to discuss the current financial market situation; noting that they are
concerned that firms face difficulty borrowing from overseas . Officials will
also review foreign investor trends.
-- EU Business group stated that the recent collapse of Lehman Brothers has
increased economic uncertainty, but it did not expect a recession to take hold
in Europe. The group forecasted that activity
would pickup towards the end of 2008.
- (GE) Germany's RWI Institute lowered its 2008 GDP forecast for Germany to
1.7% from 2.2% prior and cut its 2009 GDP view to 0.7% from due to slowing
growth and falling inflation which it sees weakening to 2.3% from 3.0% level
seen in 2008.
- ZEW's Schmidt stated that the uncertain environment had a negative impact on
growth but maintains that the majority of experts continue to see ECB interest
rates on Hold. Added that lower oil, Euro currency has helped investor
- ZEW's Franz stated that Lower CPI readings should help consumption patterns
- Bank of England sent its mandatory letter on inflation. The letter noted that
inflation may peak soon at the 5.0% level, but remain 'markedly' above target
into 2009. It then expects inflation to fall sharply towards its target rate.
The letter noted that the recent drop in GBP is pushing up import prices, but
that the drop in oil will moderate the pace. The central bank noted that the
risk remains that inflation could become embedded. However, the BOE hold that
slower economic growth is necessary to curb inflationary expectations.
- In Central bank Action: Indonesia Central Bank cuts its overnight repo rate
by 200 bps to 10.25%. This was unexpected. The Central Bank also raised its
deposit rate by 100 bps to 8.25%.
- The USD was consolidating its recent gains against the European currencies
while the JPY firmed on continued unwinding of carry-related pairs. USD/JPY
tested below the 104 handle where it encountered some 'good Far east Bids'.EUR/JPY probed the 147.60 area.
Some of the strength in the EUR/USD pair was attributed to renewed chatter that
US Pfizer [PFE] could bid for Germany's Bayer [BAY.GE]. nonetheless, the USD
managed to maintain a positive tone as it managed to shrug off positive
European ZEW data to move back below the 1. 41 area..
- In Energy: Nigerian rebels claimed responsibility for another pipeline
bombing attack in the Niger delta region, belonging to Chevron
- Lybia Oil official: OPEC should maintain output qoutas to stop decline in oil
prices ||(IN) Indian oil minister stated that a fuel price cut is possible is
crude price falls below $67/barrel and added that will not cut prices at this
time,due to decline in FX rate. || IEA: Crude price on downward trend despite
effects of hurricane Ike - Letter to Board. It stated that it saw some
preliminary Signs Of Water Damage At 10 US Refineries but no Major Pipeline
Issues Apparent In Impacted US Region.
- In Fixed Income Supply
- (SA) S. Africa sold ZAR550M in R207 Bonds with an avg yield of 9.03% and a
bid-to- cover ratio of 3.59 times ||ECB allotted ‚ā¨150B in 1-week refi
operation, benchmark allotment was ‚ā¨111B; marginal rate 4.53% ||ECB allotted
‚ā¨70B in 1- day fine tuning refi at 4.32% || (UK) BoE offered ¬£20B in 2-day repo
and added that the action was taken in response to short-term money market
conditions. BOE reiterates that it continues to monitor all of the developments
- Credit crisis: Oppenheimer Analyst Whitney noted that the dissolution of
Lehman and sale of Merrill Lynch would likely result in less liquidity in the
credit market and adding that such implications will be lower house prices. She
added that bank face material and protracted writedowns and pressure on capital
requirements into 2009.
- UBS Analyst stated that more banking failures are likely and added that
Citigroup [C] and LLoyds [LLOY.UK] as their least favorite picks in the sector
- the Itraxx Crossover index opened higher by 38bps
to trade at the 632bps level. ||India's ICICI bank was lower in trading
[ICICIBC.IN] on speculation circulating that the co. may have $400M-$500M
month-to-market loss in UK due to widening credit spreads.
*** NOTES ***
Dealers noting that Asian equity markets managed to ‚Äúpack two days of losses‚ÄĚ
into one trading session as Nikkei, Hang Seng and China fell around 5% each.
However, some bewilderment over commodities (particularly gold) as liquidation
and de-leveraging seem to dictate price action rather than 'safe-haven' flows
due to the global financial market crisis. All focus now directed towards the
FOMC policy meeting. Dealers trying to understand possible scenarios on the
FED's decisions. No rate cut would likely send equities lower while a reduction
could provide a 'brief rally‚ÄĚ and then see equities continue southward.
- Looking ahead:
8:30 (CA) July Manufacturing Shipments (MoM): Consensus expectations are 1.0%
The prior number was 2.1%
8:30 (US) August Consumer Price index (MoM): M/M consensus expectations are
-0.1%; The prior number was 0.8%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 5.5%; The
prior number was 5.6%
8:30 (US) August CPI Ex Food & Energy: M/M consensus expectations are 0.2%;
The prior number was 0.3%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 2.6%; The prior
number was 2.5%
8:30 (US) August Consumer Price Index NSA: Consensus expectations are 219,300;
The prior number was 219,964
9:00 July Net Long-Term TIC Flows: Consensus expectations are $55.0B; The prior
number was $53.4B
9:00 July Total Net TIC Flows: Consensus expectations are $40.0B; The prior
number was $51. 1B
13:00 (US) September NAHB Housing Market Index: Consensus expectations are 17;
The prior number was 16
- Central Bank Speakers later today:
9:00 (US) Fed Open Market Committee meets on Interest Rates, Economy (decisions
expected at 2:15pmET)
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Mon 9 July 2018 AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony Tue 10 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 11 July 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 12 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 13 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
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