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Tuesday September 16, 2008 - 11:41:20 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: BOE favors slower economic growth to bring inflationary expectations back to target; ZEW data better on lower oil and softer Euro curency


- (GE) August CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e

- (GE) August CPI (EU-harmonized) M/M: -0.4% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 3. 3% v 3.3%e

- (EU) August EU 25 New Car Registrations -15.7% v -7. 4% prior

- (CZ) July Retail Sales YoY: 3.6% v 5.0%e

- (SZ) Q2 Industrial Production Q/Q: 8.9% v 5.1%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 3.0%e

- (NE) July Retail Sales YoY: 5.4% v 3.0%e

- (NE) July Trade Balance: 3.0B v 2.9B prior

- (SW) August Average House Price (SEK): 1.88M v 1.87M prior

- (IT) Q2 Labor Costs Q/Q: -2.3% v 3.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v 5. 6% prior

- (
UK) August CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.6%e

- (
UK) August Core CPI YoY: 2.0% v 1.9%e

- (
UK) August RPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 5.0%e

- (
UK) August RPI ex Mort. Int. payments YoY:5.2 % v 5.5%e

- (
UK) July DCLG UK house Prices YoY: -0.3% v -2.1%e

- (GE) September ZEW Survey Econ. Sentiment: - 41.1 v -53.0e; Current Situation: -1.0 v -15.0e

- (EU) August Euro- Zone CPI MoM: -0.1% v -0.2%e; YoY: 3.8% v 3.8%e; Core CPI YoY: 1.9% v 1. 8%e

- (EU) September ZEW Econ. Sentiment: -40.9 v -55.0e


In equities news overnight:

Cia Vale do Rio [RIO] Reportedly company's Inco's steelworkers have ratified a new 3 yr contract, which includes a 3% base pay increase in 2008 and a 2.5% hike in 2009. || Novartis [NOVN.SZ} Study shows RAD0111 effective in kidney cancer, which increases tumor-free survival to 5 months. || Aegon AGN.NV: Released Details of its Lehman Brothers Exposure and Reiterated Confidence in the Group's Financial position. It added that it did not hold common equity in Lehman Brothers. || Ashmore [ASHM.UK] Reporteds FY08 Net profit £140.8M versus £91.4M a year ago; Pretax Profit £196.2M v £131.4M y/y, Rev £244.7M v £163.6M y/y, Assets under management (AUM) totalled $37.5B compared to $20.1B a year ago. Profit Margin 76% v 76% y/y. || De La Rue PLC [DLAR.UK] stated that it saw H1 trading in line with expectations and added that Q2 results are in line with estimates

Company stated that it will maintain a dividend of 305p per share. || Debenhams [DEB.UK] Reported FY SSS -0.9% y/y; gross transaction value up 1.3% y/; Says market share was achieved in all major product categories. The company noted that its Aug trading was markedly better than July. Gross margins was flat y/y. || SeaDrill [SDRL.NO] To sell West Hercules, West Taurus for $1.7B to Ship Finance International. will also lease the units for a 15 Yr period and the arrangement secures entire Newbuild program. || Danisco[ DCO.DC] sold its biotechnology company Direvo to Bayer [BAY.GE] for €210M and expected the deal to close by the end of September. || Michael page [MPI.UK] Switz's Adecco [ADEN.SZ] stated that it was no longer considering an acqusition of Michael Page noting that it was unlikely that it could be able to agree a combination on terms. || Swedbank [SWEDA.SW] stated that it has non-secured exposure in LEH in amount of SEK202M. || Merck KGAA [MRK.GE] Stated that Erbitux data showed that it extended survival in colon cancer. || Arcandor stated that it Expected positive result from refinancing talks. Telecom Italia [TIT.IT] Reportedly co. may spin off its network division - Italian press || Medigene [MDG.GE] ENDOTAG improved survival in tests; show 12-month survival benefit


- ECB Nowotny stated that the ECB had reacted to financial market crisis by injecting additional liquidity into the market; He reiterated that the ECB's primary mandate remains price stability.

- Current crisis may amplify weaker growth outlook for EuroZone

- Notes that deregulation was too fast and has gone too far

- ECB's Mersch reiterated in a press interview the ECB stand on inflation. Mersch stated that that he rejects notion that E.U. inflation has peaked and noted the importance to avoid second round effects.

UK Chancellor Darling noted that a tigher regulatory system is necessary in financial markets. Noting that the recent drop in oil prices was a positive development, Central Banks need to help through financial turmoil

however uncertainty affecting all nations

- Adds Central Banks need to help through financial turmoil

- EU's Almunia noted that the reaction of regulators was very positive development in both US and Europe. He added that Central Banks and regulators are key to market evolution and growth

- French Fin Min Legarde noted that the volatility in interest rate spreads will make credit more expensive in near term. Also noting that slowing economic growth may contribute to rising unemployment

- German Fin Min Steinbruck stated in a speech to parliament that he sees downside risks in
Germany resulting from international events. If the country lapses into a 'technical'

recession it would not be prolonged. The 2008 growth forecast of 1. 7% is currently being maintained by the ministry, but inflation around 3% level remains a concern> Lastly the crisis is not over and it wil have impact on local. The current
US financial crisis is the largest ever seen.

South Korea's Shin noted that Korean officials would meet to discuss the current financial market situation; noting that they are concerned that firms face difficulty borrowing from overseas . Officials will also review foreign investor trends.

-- EU Business group stated that the recent collapse of Lehman Brothers has increased economic uncertainty, but it did not expect a recession to take hold in
Europe. The group forecasted that activity would pickup towards the end of 2008.

- (GE) Germany's RWI Institute lowered its 2008 GDP forecast for Germany to 1.7% from 2.2% prior and cut its 2009 GDP view to 0.7% from due to slowing growth and falling inflation which it sees weakening to 2.3% from 3.0% level seen in 2008.

- ZEW's Schmidt stated that the uncertain environment had a negative impact on growth but maintains that the majority of experts continue to see ECB interest rates on Hold. Added that lower oil, Euro currency has helped investor sentiment.

- ZEW's Franz stated that Lower CPI readings should help consumption patterns

- Bank of England sent its mandatory letter on inflation. The letter noted that inflation may peak soon at the 5.0% level, but remain 'markedly' above target into 2009. It then expects inflation to fall sharply towards its target rate. The letter noted that the recent drop in GBP is pushing up import prices, but that the drop in oil will moderate the pace. The central bank noted that the risk remains that inflation could become embedded. However, the BOE hold that slower economic growth is necessary to curb inflationary expectations.

- In Central bank Action: Indonesia Central Bank cuts its overnight repo rate by 200 bps to 10.25%. This was unexpected. The Central Bank also raised its deposit rate by 100 bps to 8.25%.

In Currencies

- The USD was consolidating its recent gains against the European currencies while the JPY firmed on continued unwinding of carry-related pairs. USD/JPY tested below the 104 handle where it encountered some 'good
Far east Bids'.EUR/JPY probed the 147.60 area. Some of the strength in the EUR/USD pair was attributed to renewed chatter that US Pfizer [PFE] could bid for Germany's Bayer [BAY.GE]. nonetheless, the USD managed to maintain a positive tone as it managed to shrug off positive European ZEW data to move back below the 1. 41 area..

- In Energy: Nigerian rebels claimed responsibility for another pipeline bombing attack in the Niger delta region, belonging to Chevron

- Lybia Oil official: OPEC should maintain output qoutas to stop decline in oil prices ||(IN) Indian oil minister stated that a fuel price cut is possible is crude price falls below $67/barrel and added that will not cut prices at this time,due to decline in FX rate. || IEA: Crude price on downward trend despite effects of hurricane Ike - Letter to Board. It stated that it saw some preliminary Signs Of Water Damage At 10 US Refineries but no Major Pipeline Issues Apparent In Impacted US Region.

- In Fixed Income Supply

Bond Auctions

- (SA) S. Africa sold ZAR550M in R207 Bonds with an avg yield of 9.03% and a bid-to- cover ratio of 3.59 times ||ECB allotted €150B in 1-week refi operation, benchmark allotment was €111B; marginal rate 4.53% ||ECB allotted €70B in 1- day fine tuning refi at 4.32% || (UK) BoE offered £20B in 2-day repo and added that the action was taken in response to short-term money market conditions. BOE reiterates that it continues to monitor all of the developments closely.

- Credit crisis: Oppenheimer Analyst Whitney noted that the dissolution of Lehman and sale of Merrill Lynch would likely result in less liquidity in the credit market and adding that such implications will be lower house prices. She added that bank face material and protracted writedowns and pressure on capital requirements into 2009.

- UBS Analyst stated that more banking failures are likely and added that Citigroup [C] and LLoyds [LLOY.UK] as their least favorite picks in the sector

- the I
traxx Crossover index opened higher by 38bps to trade at the 632bps level. ||India's ICICI bank was lower in trading [ICICIBC.IN] on speculation circulating that the co. may have $400M-$500M month-to-market loss in UK due to widening credit spreads.

*** NOTES ***

Dealers noting that Asian equity markets managed to “pack two days of losses” into one trading session as Nikkei, Hang Seng and China fell around 5% each. However, some bewilderment over commodities (particularly gold) as liquidation and de-leveraging seem to dictate price action rather than 'safe-haven' flows due to the global financial market crisis. All focus now directed towards the FOMC policy meeting. Dealers trying to understand possible scenarios on the FED's decisions. No rate cut would likely send equities lower while a reduction could provide a 'brief rally” and then see equities continue southward.

- Looking ahead:

8:30 (CA) July Manufacturing Shipments (MoM): Consensus expectations are 1.0% The prior number was 2.1%

8:30 (US) August Consumer Price index (MoM): M/M consensus expectations are -0.1%; The prior number was 0.8%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 5.5%; The prior number was 5.6%

8:30 (US) August CPI Ex Food & Energy: M/M consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number was 0.3%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 2.6%; The prior number was 2.5%

8:30 (US) August Consumer Price Index NSA: Consensus expectations are 219,300; The prior number was 219,964

9:00 July Net Long-Term TIC Flows: Consensus expectations are $55.0B; The prior number was $53.4B

9:00 July Total Net TIC Flows: Consensus expectations are $40.0B; The prior number was $51. 1B

13:00 (US) September NAHB Housing Market Index: Consensus expectations are 17; The prior number was 16

- Central Bank Speakers later today:

9:00 (US) Fed Open Market Committee meets on Interest Rates, Economy (decisions expected at 2:15pmET)


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