User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday September 16, 2008 - 21:20:11 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report  Wednesday 17 September 2008

 

News and views

FX markets traded very nervously in illiquid conditions, paying little heed to fundamental economic news ahead of the FOMC decision. Various central banks injected funds to ease money market strains. The DJIA had opened down about 170pts but with the help of rumours that the US government would help AIG, the index ground back to a small gain by the time of the Fed statement. Its steady hand at 2% initially saw the Dow drop 150pts but it soon rebounded to register a 140pt gain in late trade. A mixed session for USD ultimately saw it higher once equities had bounced. Most financials participated in the rally, though Goldman Sachs was near flat despite its Q3 profit beating consensus for the 13th consecutive quarter.

 

NZD/USD had a good London-NY session, marching from near 0.6500 to 0.6590/00 with only a passing tremor on the Fed news.

 

AUD/USD saw its 0.7852 low in edgy London trade but by late NY had driven back to 0.7975, trading wide ranges in the NY afternoon thanks to FOMC/equities. Commodities were generally weaker.

 

EUR/USD oscillated in the low 1.4200s until the NY afternoon when as the DJIA ground higher, it slipped below 1.4100, before steadying in the mid-1.4100s. There are of course concerns over European financials too, with SNB’s Hildebrand saying the CB is in contact with big Swiss banks as UBS shares sank a record 17% (after -15% Mon).

 

USD/JPY started to find support in NY just above 103.50 and by late NY, with equities firmly in positive territory, it had rebounded sharply, to 105.60.

 

US Fed left its funds target unchanged at 2.00% following the FOMC meeting. There were no dissenters for a hike, in contrast to recent meetings. Key changes in the statement compared to Aug 5 were: financial markets strains had “increased considerably”; the reference to “elevated energy prices” from last month was dropped; slower export growth was raised as a possibility for the first time this month; and reference to elevated inflation expectations was dropped. Looking through that list, it is fair to say that this is a more sombre, less inflationary statement, though it does not hint that a rate cut is imminent. Although worded differently to last time, the risk assessment re growth and inflation remained balanced.

 

US CPI falls 0.1% in Aug. The CPI posted its first monthly decline in nearly two years in Aug, pulling the annual rate down from 5.6% to 5.4%. We expect US inflation to tumble sharply further in coming months, as recent collapsing energy and food prices, combined with favourable base effects and generally subdued economic activity, pull the headline CPI below 4% by year end and yet lower in 2009. Aug’s decline was due to a 4.2% fall in gasoline, and a generally softer 0.2% core rate after two 0.3+% outcomes.

 

Other US data. The NAHB activity index lifted off its July-August all-time low in September, rising to 18. July TIC data showed a significant capital outflow, mostly due to selling of agency paper (not surprising given Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac uncertainties).

 

Euroland inflation was confirmed at 3.8% yr in Aug; the core rate rose to 1.9% yr, but remains within the 1.6-2.0% range seen since the start of 2007. Also, a further rise in ZEW analyst sentiment from -56 to -41 in Sep would have reflected the weaker euro and lower oil price. But we suspect if the survey had been taken this week, the result would have been much weaker, given the Lehman Bros failure and stock market impact thereof.

 

UK CPI jumped another 0.3 ppts to 4.7% yr in Aug, its highest in the 11 years that the current measure has been calculated. Food and energy were the main drivers although the core rate edged up to 2%, matching the previous high of 2% reached briefly last year. The Bank of England Governor published another open letter today, explaining that inflation may yet hit 5% but also expressing the view that it should “fall sharply in 2009 and back to target thereafter” as lower commodity prices and weaker activity feeds through. We don’t see today’s outcome as preventing a BoE rate cut before year end, maybe as soon as October.

 

Outlook

The RBNZ’s choice of -50bp over -25bp last week reinforces our preference for long AUD/ NZD but NZD/USD looks more mixed near term, prone to US-driven volatility.

 

Westpac Strategy, 0800 922 239

With contributions from Westpac Economics

 

Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast

Aus RBA Governor Speaks

Jul Westpac-MI Leading Index 2.0% –

Aug Merchandise Imports AUDbn 19.7 –

US Q2 Current Account $bn –176.4 –175.0

Aug Housing Starts –11.0% –3.5%

Aug Housing Permits –17.7% –5.0%

Jpn Bank of Japan Meeting 0.50% 0.50%

Eur Jul Trade Balance €bn s.a. –3.0 –3.5

UK Sep BoE MPC Minutes

Aug Unemployment ch’ 20.1 20.0

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (15 September)

• Q2 Current Account Preview (12 September)

• RBNZ MPS Review (11 September)

• NZ Q2 Terms of Trade (10 September)

• NZ Agribiz September 2008 (8 September)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (8 September)

• RBNZ MPS Preview (5 September)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.




 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105