Wednesday December 1, 2004 - 01:45:16 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 1st December 2004 Price: ... 1.3307
Resistance: 1.3333 ... 1.3364 ... 1.3389 ... 1.3425
Support....: 1.3300 ... 1.3270 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3197
Mixed - though have a mild bearish preference
The structure of the recovery from 1.3182 and the rejection at 1.3333 tends to give a more bearish feel. Thus to generate a stronger move higher would require a break back above 1.3333 which would then put price on course for a move to 1.3389 and probably the original 1.3418-25 target which should cap. Further resistance is seen at 1.3475 and then at 1.3533-36.
The failure at 1.3333 does not look too bullish for now and actually threatens a move lower. This will require 1.3316-33 to hold and for a move back below 1.3290 and more importantly 1.3275 and if seen would provoke losses back to 1.3197 which should allow a small pullback but would then target the 1.3153-82 area. Only below the lower area would have larger bearish implications.
Elliott Wave Comments:
December 1st 2004
Price managed to reach 1.3333 only yesterday but we feel this is merely the Wave b of a Flat Correction from 1.3329. This would imply a test of the wave a low at 1.3182 and we should allow for a small overlap to 1.3153 which represents a 50% correction of Wave iii. This would still allow room for a Wave v within Wave -c- to target the ideal 1.3418-25 target.
Given that a cycle high was anticipated around this time, any break below 1.3153 would then suggest that the larger corection has begun and we would then expect to see a move down to Wave -b- at 1.2936 at least.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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