- In equities news overnight: HBOS [HBOS.UK} Lloyds TSB and HBOS announced that
they have reached agreement; Lloyds to purchase HBOS in all-stock transaction,
deal valued at Â£12.2B. HBOS Shareholders will receive 0.83 Lloyds TSB Shares
for every 1 HBOS Share. || Barclays [BARC.UK] Announced a placement to raise
Â£750M via a new share offering || (RU) Russian Regulators suspended short
selling and margin trading on Russian exchanges until further notice and
reopened its exchanges on a limited basis. || Toshiba [TOSBF] Stated that it is
aiming for Â¥750B in revenues for their TV business in FY10 and target more than
10% share of LCD TV market in 2010. || Pernod Ricrad [RI.FR} Reported FY Net of
â‚¬897M (ex-items) compared to consensus estimates of â‚¬899Me. The company raised
its annual dividend by 5% to â‚¬1.32/shr. Its op margin came in at 23.1%. Pernod
guided FY09 organic growth of 8% and net growth at double digits. It see strong
impact from Vin & Spirit integration in 2009 and noted that the general
environment is more difficult. || Tate & Lyle [TATE.UK] Announced
resignation of CFO John Nicholas and noted that its H1 trading is in line with prior
expectations. || Kingfisher PLC [KGF.UK] Reported H1 Net Â£147M above consensus
estimates of Â£139Me. ItsAdj pretax Â£214M versus Â£174M from a year ago. Revenues
came in at Â£5.13B and were in line with estimates of Â£5.11Be, Like-for-like
sales -2.6%. || Bluebay Asset Management [BBAY.UK] Reported FY08 Net of Â£33. 6M
just below estimates of Â£36.0Me, Pretax Â£49.7M v Â£52.5Me; Net Mgt Fee Â£93.1M v
Â£91.M y/y and assets under management (AUM) $21.0B v $13.1B y/y. Merck KGAA
[MRK.GE} Announced the initiation of a phase 3 trial for multiple sclerosis;
Cladribine tablets have been granted a fast track designation by the U.S. FDA.
|| Aegon [AGN.NV] Announced a strategic refocus of its Canadian business and
appointed Douglas W.Brooks new CEO, effective immediately. || Crucell [CRXL]
Signed exclusive license agreement with Talecris in which it is eligible for
$30M in milestone payments. || Raiffseisen [RIBH.AS] Confirmed its 2008 profit
target of â‚¬1.0B; noted that its outlook remains realistic despite financial
market turmoil. || Trina Solar [TSL] CEO stated that he expected FY09 Revenue
to double to $1.7B-$1. 8B compared to current street estimates of $1.29Be. SAAB
[SAABB.SW] Exec VP stated that he expects 2008 profits to rise aroud 8-9% from
year ago levels. He noted business was impacted by Boeing, Airbus project
delays and that the global credit crunch will affect company's profits.
- Speakers: UK's Darling: Current circumstances in
financial markets are exceptional. He noted that the takeover legislation
should be moderated to achieve UK financial stability. Lastly he supported
and welcomes Lloyds TSB, HBOS merger. || (UK) BoE's Dale noted that he saw balanced
risks on the inflation front; Risks in house price add to credit woes. He added
that consumption is likely to remain subdued and must continue to monitor
inflation expectations and that the recent house price decline has been 'painful'.
|| (SW) Sweden's Chief Economist Floden noted that Sweden is well equipped to
handle the current financial market crisis and that its banks have sufficient
capital. || (JP) BOJ Shirakawa noted that the USD liquidity offering will help
stabilize markets and added that it would hurt BOJ balance sheet. || German BDB
Lobby Group noted that the German economy would likely stagnate but avoid
recession with stagflation a more possible scenario. The group forecasted 2008
GDP at 1.9% and 2009 GDP at 1. 0%. it added that it saw the ECB maintaining
interest rates at 4.25% for remainder of 2008 and could have room for cuts in
- Central Banks: At the onset on the European equity open at , the Major central banks announce a
fresh round of coordinated liquidity measures. The FED authorized $180B in
currency swaps. Participating central banks included Bank of Canada, the Bank
of England, the European Central Bank (ECB the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss
National Bank. The coordinated measures are designed to address the continued
elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets. These measures,
together with other actions taken in the last few days by individual central
banks, are designed to improve the liquidity conditions in global financial markets.
Fed said the ECB has been authorized to double its existing limit to $110B from
$55B and the Swiss central bank (SNB) can offer an extra $15B. New swap
facilities were created with the Bank of Japan in the amount of $60B, the Bank
of England in amount of $40B and the Bank of Canada in the amount of $10B. ||
(JP) BOJ Nishimura state that uncertainty in financial markets was increasing
and that the Japanese financial system was not be seriously affected. He noted
that the economy is experiencing some slowdown, but to return to moderate
growth path. The rise in inflation will likely to moderate ||- (SW) Sweden
Riksbank: Not planning a market injection for now, prepared to do so when
necessary , but are monitoring situation carefully || (IN) India Fin Min noted
that its public sector banks were not exposed to the US financial market crisis
and AIG India unit continues to function. The ministry added that it would take
appropriate measures to provide liquidity if tightness in credit is seen. ||NO)
Norway Central bank: Liquidity supply for money markets is close to normal
- In Currencies: The USD was broadly lowers in a choppy session as credit
tensions remained the focal point. The USD initially was bid ahead of the
European equity open as 3-month USD LIBOR fixings were signally continued
stress in liquidity and at one time was over 100bps above yesterday's 3.06%
fixing. The GBP/USD tested below the 1.81 area on rumors that the BOE would
enact an emergency interest rate cut before the US equity markets opened on Thursday.
Strong UK retail sales data calmed the markets raw
nerves that global economic growth was about to seize up. GBP/USD over 100 pips
from session lows as it hovers around the 1.82. EUR/USD higher as the liquidity
measures helped to bring the early indications of a higher LIBOR spreads back
into a more manageable range ahead of the fixings.
In Energy: Nigeria Oil Minister stated that recent militant
attacks on facilities have reduced oil production by 100K bpd to 2.1M bpd. The
minirty noted that around 1M bpd in capacity remained untapped due to short and
long term issues
- In Fixed Income. The Paris club noted that its negotiations with Argentina on debt repayment plan is perhaps
nearing a significant milestone in reestablishing Argentina credit rating.
- Bond Auctions: (SP) Spain sold â‚¬1.78B in 10-Year issue with an ;
avg yield of 4.62% v 4.76% prior; bid-to-cover 1.31x v 1. 44x prior. || (FR)
France Sold â‚¬1.86B in 3.75% Apr 2010 ,avg yield 3.91%, bid-to-cover 3.76x; Sold
â‚¬2.47B in 4.0% Apr 2013 Notes, avg yield 4.07%, bid-to-cover 1.91x and lastly
sold â‚¬690M 4.% 2013 Bonds, avg yield 4.05%, bid-to-cover 1.94x
- Dubai Group says that they are "not interested" in distressed U.S.
bank assets, says it is more prudent to invest in Middle East, North Africa.
Planning to start a fund of funds for U.S. equities. || S&P Report: Asian
financial industry facing increased risks from slowing economy. || (SP) Spanish
Central Bank announced that its July Loan delinquencies increased by â‚¬9.6B,
with the delinquency ratio at 2.21%.
*** NOTES ***
Ahead of the European equity open, traders and dealers were ex[ressing
continued concerns over the elevated rates of various swap rates. The early
indication of 3-month dollar libor rate was at 3.25% area before soaring to
over 4.25% compared to yesterday's 3.06% fixing. Wednesday's increase of 19bps
was the highest in 9 years and the potential of 100+bps in today's scramble for
funding prompted the central bank to announce a resh round of liquidity
operations. Dealers described the price action over the last 24 hours as
"stressed, seized, locked and dysfunctional" with an added flavor of
turmoil, panic, coupled with chaos. There were numerous stories of electronic
platforms simply not responding. The focus continues to move on the financial
sector with Morgan Stanley being the lynchpin as various potential merger
partners are thrown around.
- China Citic denied talks but Singapore GIC would welcome a potential. Russia provided a limited equity open and
provided some news tools suspend short selling and margin trading until further
8:00 (SZ) SNB central bank announces its monetary policy decision with
consensus expectations that the SNB will hold its target rate at 2.75%
8:30 (CA) August Leading Indicators MoM: % v 0.0%e;
8:30 (CA) July Wholesale Sales MoM: % v 0.8%e;
8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 440Ke v 445K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.525M
v 3.525M prior
10:00 (US) Sept. Philadelphia Fed: v -10e
10:00 (US) August Leading Indicators: % v -0.2%e .
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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