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Forex Blog - Coordinated Liquidity Provides Little Relief, Euro Gets The Flow

Coordinated Liquidity Provides Little Relief, Euro Gets The Flow Last Updated 9/18/2008 7:26:26 AM EST (GMT +5)

Top Stories

• Coordinated liquidity by Central Banks helps to stabilize carry

• HBOS taken out by Lloyds at $22 Billion

• WAMU puts itself up for sale

• Morgan Stanley rejected by Citibank – NYT, looking to China for partner or possibly Wachovia

• Overnight dollar rates in interbank market stabilize at 4.5%

• Oil rallies as high $98 before retreating to $96

• Nikkei down but US equity futures called up

• Gold nearly $100 higher than yesterday at $878

Overnight Eco

• JPY Tertiary Industry Activity up much better 1.2% vs. 0.4% forecast

• CHF Trade Balance 1.43B vs. 1.00 B

• GBP UK Retail Sales 1.2% vs. –0.4% called on better

• GBP M4 Money Supply 1.4% vs. 0.7% forecast

Event Risk on Tap

• CHF SNB expected to keep rates steady at 2.75%

• CAD Wholesale Sales market looks to 0.6%

• CAD LEI looks to be flat at 0.0%

• USD Weekly Unemployment rates on tap

• USD Philly Fed market looks at –10

• USD LEI markets looks to -0.2% vs. -0.7% prior

Price Action

• USD/JPY better bid as liquidity pump help top fuel the pair to 105.58 but it does not hold the highs as skepticism reigns

• AUD/USD above 8000 as carry rebounds strongly

• GBP/USD wildly volatile as rumors of BoE rate cuts drop it to 18086 but spikes to 1.8250 on much better retail sales

• EUR/USD: best bid of all as carry flows, higher oil and asset diversification all help

Coordinated Liquidity Provides Little Relief, Euro Gets The Flow

Today’s coordinated liquidity by G-7 Central banks and the SNB, tried to alleviate the crisis in the global money markets which has seen overnight dollar lending rates spike to as high as 10%, but the move appeared to have only limited effect on reducing risk, as USD/JPY quickly gave up its initial gains and traded back towards the levels of yesterday’s New York close. Nevertheless, the news was received positively by the high yielding currencies with pound, Aussie and euro all rallying sharply.

The EURUSD was the biggest beneficiary of tonight’s news as the combination of better carry trade environment, higher oil and gold prices and asset diversification from longer term accounts provided the fuel for a near 300 point rally off Asian session lows. After being battered on risk liquidation and dollar repatriation flows for the past month, the euro has now retaken the 1.4500 handle in a very string counter trend move. We noted earlier that as the credit crisis continues to grip global capital markets it may trigger fears of a currency crisis, with the next credit risk being that of US government debt. While we do not subscribe to such a scenario, yesterday 100+ move gold is certainly a sign by the markets that confidence is in short supply. If gold continues its ascent above the $900 figure EURUSD is likely to follow suit as the strongest anti-dollar proxy in the currency market.

Cable was also very well bid tonight after the much better than expected UK Retail Sales which printed at 1.2% vs. 0.4% forecast surprised the market with their resiliency. The rise was driven by clothing and footwear, but the net impact on the market was to put in doubt the idea of BoE rate cut in November, which until today appeared to have been a near certainty. The unit was actually pressured heavily on false rumors of an emergency rate cut earlier in the Asian session, but recovered smartly and continues to trade well into the North American open.

Meanwhile the US session once again looks to be a vortex of volatility as fiscal and monetary authorities keep a wary eye on equities. If stock rebound USDJPY is likely to recover the 105.00 handle and may even target 106.00 as fear begin to ease. If however we see yet another triple digit decline the move away from dollars is likely to accelerate at a dramatic pace.

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior

CAD 12:30 8:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (JUL) 2.0%

CAD 12:30 8:30 CAD Leading Indicators (MoM) (AUG) 0.0% 0.0%

USD 14:00 10:00 USD Philadelphia Fed. (SEP) -10 -12.7

USD 14:00 10:00 USD Leading Indicators (AUG) -0.2% -0.7%

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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