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Friday September 19, 2008 - 11:14:15 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Equity Bulls go global as regulators crack down on short- selling



*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (JP) Jul Final Leading Index: 91.4 v 91.6e; Coincident Index: 103.5 V 103.3E

- (GE) Aug Producer Prices M/M: -0. 6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 8.1% v 8.3%;

- (FR) French Q2 Wages Final Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.9%e

- (SP) Spain Q2 Labor Costs Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.1% prior

- (SZ) Aug Money Supply M3 YoY: 2.5% v 1.6% prior

- (IT) July Industrial Orders M/M: 2.6% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 5.5% v -7.8% prior

- (IT) July Industrial Sales M/M: -2.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 3. 8% prior

- (JP) Japan Sept Economic Report: Maintains economic view, removed the word "Recovery" from its economic assessment on Global Economy for the first time in 6 years

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Company news: SEC confirmed that it was halting the Short Selling of Financial Stocks to Protect Investors and Markets, effective immediately. The SEC stated it was acting in concert with the U.K. Financial Services Authority in this temporary emergency action to prohibit short selling in financial companies to protect the integrity and quality of the securities market and strengthen investor confidence. The Australian Govt also announced its intent to impose a ban on naked short selling effective Sept. 22. |Note: German Regulator stated that there were no plans to ban short selling in its markets || Airbus [EAD. FR] CEO denied press speculation that its was unable to meet its 2008 delivery target. The CEO stated that Airbus would deliver more than 11 A380 aircrafts this year. The French press noting that the Airbus would not meet its 2008 delivery goal of delivering
8 to 10 A380 aircraft. || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] German State Premier of Lower Saxony stated that they are not acquiring shares in the company. || Plus Markets [PMK.UK] announced new CFO and reports H1 rev £1.6M v £1.68M y/y. || Toshiba [6502.jp] Lowered its FY and H1 guidance citing losses at its chip business on weaker demand for semiconductors. Co now sees its H1 Net -¥40B compared to prior view of ¥55B ; Pretax at -¥45B versus its previous forecast of ¥60B and revenues at ¥1.71T versus ¥1.80T prior. It also noted that its Nand inventory remained abundant and would be some time to diminish supply. It expected NAND prices expected to drop by 60% in 2008/09 period || BASF [BAS.GE] stated that it would cut its polystyrene output in Europe citing lower demand. || Cap Gemini [CAP.FR] Maintained their FY sales and margin outlook noting that the company not adversely impacted by the recent credit crisis. || China Investment Corp Official stated that sovereign wealth funds would remain prudent on any potential foreign investments. The CIC added that Goldman [GS] and Morgan Stanley [MS] need not dependent on others to solve their problems.

- Speakers: (JP) BoJ's Shirakawa stated that Central banks have not rule out any policy options at this time and stressed that developments in the
US need continued monitoring. The BOJ chief expressed no direct comment on any needs for interest rate cuts, but stated that the BOJ would assess various risks at every monetary policy meeting. Lastly he noted that the tension in financial markets and money markets remain and that central banks must ensure that stability is secured. || (GE) German Finance Ministry noted that its economic data pointed towards weakness in Q3, but it reiterated its 2008 GDP forecast as achievable Noted that the economy most likely contracted in Q3 and that exports would slow further despite weaker Euro FX rate. It saw no reason at this time to revise its 2009 GDP groeth forecast. Ministry added that the German economy cannot decouple from global trends. Lastly it reiterated the view that unions must accept moderate wage increases. ||(SW) Swedish Central Banker Wickman-Parak stated that the recent market turmoil was not affecting the country's financial stability; but would take measures if necessary to ensure financial stability, predicts uncertainty will remain for some time. The economic force of a rapid slowdown could be a catalyst to cut rates more than expected.

- The Japanese Sept Monthly report maintained it's over all assessment of the economy; but removed the word "Recovery" from its economic assessment on Global Economy for the first time in 6 years. Japanese Government lowered its view on capital expenditures view for the first time in 6 months as well. The report noted that the
US financial crisis brings several risks to the Japanese economy. The report added that there is signs of a global economic slowdown are becoming more evident.

- In equities news overnight: Stocks from various money centers rallied on Friday after the
U.S. government announcement that it is planning new laws to stem the credit-market meltdown. Equities upside momentum aided further after U.K. and American regulators provided new rules aimed to quell short selling in financial company shares. The European equity markets surged higher on the open with financials stocks leading the way higher. Barclays up 57%on the open and saw similar moves among other bank stocks including HBOS +52%; RBS+51%, LLOY +52% following the new regulations. The US is also reportedly preparing legislation that could move troubled assets from the balance sheets of its financial companies into a new institution. US Treasury and FED seek to work with Congress to pass legislation in the near future. The initiative, which may also insure money-market funds, is aimed at removing the devalued mortgage-linked assets that has impaired the credit markets in recent quarters.

- In Currencies: Dealers noting a winding theme of risk aversion activity today in the wake of the
U.S. financial bailout plan. The plan is reportedly calling for options in establishing an $800B fund to purchase so-called failed assets and a separate $400B pool at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to insure investors in money-market funds

The USD firmed against the major but is off its best levels. EUR/USD at 1.4215, off 80+ pips from its Asian open, while USD/JPY is above the 107 handle (up 150 pips). EUR/JPY firmer at 152.50 and GBP/JPY firmer by 60 pips at 192.70

- In Energy: Royal Dutch Shell [RDS.A] Confirmed attacks on its Nigerian oil facilities earlier this week; hopes Niger Delta crisis would be resolved soon. Company noted that attacks would result in 'deferred earnings'. || RU) Russia Energy Min stated that
Russia would attend the December OPEC meeting in a observer role.

*** NOTES ***

- Dealers talking about the government moves to quell short selling of financial stocks and the surge in global equity markets. The financial markets have a lot to digest today as they try to assess the implications of the USD bailout plan for the financial system. The question remains whether the program would improve the liquidity in the system, and the opportunity for firms to liquefy their balance sheets All eyes will turn to the reaction of debt markets and spreads. The change as of the equity close will be deemed more important than the open. Dealers noting that The Long/Short hedge funds are now effectively out of business, yet the Repo market remains “essentially dead” despite the central bank coordinated liquidity moves.

 

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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