- Company news: SEC confirmed that it was halting the Short Selling of
Financial Stocks to Protect Investors and Markets, effective immediately. The
SEC stated it was acting in concert with the U.K. Financial Services Authority
in this temporary emergency action to prohibit short selling in financial
companies to protect the integrity and quality of the securities market and
strengthen investor confidence. The Australian Govt also announced its intent
to impose a ban on naked short selling effective Sept. 22. |Note: German
Regulator stated that there were no plans to ban short selling in its markets
|| Airbus [EAD. FR] CEO denied press speculation that its was unable to meet
its 2008 delivery target. The CEO stated that Airbus would deliver more than 11
A380 aircrafts this year. The French press noting that the Airbus would not
meet its 2008 delivery goal of delivering A380 aircraft. || Volkswagen [VOW.GE]
German State Premier of Lower Saxony stated that they are not acquiring shares
in the company. || Plus Markets [PMK.UK] announced new CFO and reports H1 rev
¬£1.6M v ¬£1.68M y/y. || Toshiba [6502.jp] Lowered its FY and H1 guidance citing
losses at its chip business on weaker demand for semiconductors. Co now sees
its H1 Net -¬•40B compared to prior view of ¬•55B ; Pretax at -¬•45B versus its
previous forecast of ¬•60B and revenues at ¬•1.71T versus ¬•1.80T prior. It also
noted that its Nand inventory remained abundant and would be some time to
diminish supply. It expected NAND prices expected to drop by 60% in 2008/09
period || BASF [BAS.GE] stated that it would cut its polystyrene output in Europe citing lower demand. || Cap Gemini
[CAP.FR] Maintained their FY sales and margin outlook noting that the company
not adversely impacted by the recent credit crisis. || China Investment Corp
Official stated that sovereign wealth funds would remain prudent on any
potential foreign investments. The CIC added that Goldman [GS] and Morgan
Stanley [MS] need not dependent on others to solve their problems.
- Speakers: (JP) BoJ's Shirakawa stated that Central banks have not rule out
any policy options at this time and stressed that developments in the US need continued monitoring. The BOJ chief
expressed no direct comment on any needs for interest rate cuts, but stated
that the BOJ would assess various risks at every monetary policy meeting.
Lastly he noted that the tension in financial markets and money markets remain
and that central banks must ensure that stability is secured. || (GE) German
Finance Ministry noted that its economic data pointed towards weakness in Q3,
but it reiterated its 2008 GDP forecast as achievable Noted that the economy
most likely contracted in Q3 and that exports would slow further despite weaker
Euro FX rate. It saw no reason at this time to revise its 2009 GDP groeth
forecast. Ministry added that the German economy cannot decouple from global
trends. Lastly it reiterated the view that unions must accept moderate wage
increases. ||(SW) Swedish Central Banker Wickman-Parak stated that the recent
market turmoil was not affecting the country's financial stability; but would
take measures if necessary to ensure financial stability, predicts uncertainty
will remain for some time. The economic force of a rapid slowdown could be a
catalyst to cut rates more than expected.
- The Japanese Sept Monthly report maintained it's over all assessment of the
economy; but removed the word "Recovery" from its economic assessment
on Global Economy for the first time in 6 years. Japanese Government lowered
its view on capital expenditures view for the first time in 6 months as well.
The report noted that the US financial crisis brings several risks to
the Japanese economy. The report added that there is signs of a global economic
slowdown are becoming more evident.
- In equities news overnight: Stocks from various money centers rallied on
Friday after the U.S. government announcement that it is
planning new laws to stem the credit-market meltdown. Equities upside momentum
aided further after U.K. and American regulators provided new rules aimed to
quell short selling in financial company shares. The European equity markets
surged higher on the open with financials stocks leading the way higher.
Barclays up 57%on the open and saw similar moves among other bank stocks
including HBOS +52%; RBS+51%, LLOY +52% following the new regulations. The US is also reportedly preparing legislation
that could move troubled assets from the balance sheets of its financial
companies into a new institution. US Treasury and FED seek to work with
Congress to pass legislation in the near future. The initiative, which may also
insure money-market funds, is aimed at removing the devalued mortgage-linked
assets that has impaired the credit markets in recent quarters.
- In Currencies: Dealers noting a winding theme of risk aversion activity today
in the wake of the U.S. financial bailout plan. The plan is
reportedly calling for options in establishing an $800B fund to purchase
so-called failed assets and a separate $400B pool at the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corp. to insure investors in money-market funds
The USD firmed against the major but is off its best levels. EUR/USD at 1.4215,
off 80+ pips from its Asian open, while USD/JPY is above the 107 handle (up 150
pips). EUR/JPY firmer at 152.50 and GBP/JPY firmer by 60 pips at 192.70
- In Energy: Royal Dutch Shell [RDS.A] Confirmed attacks on its Nigerian oil
facilities earlier this week; hopes Niger Delta crisis would be resolved soon.
Company noted that attacks would result in 'deferred earnings'. || RU) Russia
Energy Min stated that Russia would attend the December OPEC meeting
in a observer role.
*** NOTES ***
- Dealers talking about the government moves to quell short selling of
financial stocks and the surge in global equity markets. The financial markets
have a lot to digest today as they try to assess the implications of the USD
bailout plan for the financial system. The question remains whether the program
would improve the liquidity in the system, and the opportunity for firms to
liquefy their balance sheets All eyes will turn to the reaction of debt markets
and spreads. The change as of the equity close will be deemed more important
than the open. Dealers noting that The Long/Short hedge funds are now
effectively out of business, yet the Repo market remains ‚Äúessentially dead‚ÄĚ
despite the central bank coordinated liquidity moves.
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKeggís Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
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Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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