- In equities news overnight, Zentiva [ZEN.CZ] Sanofi strengthened its bid for
Zentiva to CZK1,150/shr from CZK1,050/shr prior. || EuroCement reported 6.52%
stake in Holcim [HOLN.SZ]. Holcim noted that it viewed the stake as
"friendly." || The French press noted that Natixis' [KN.FR] â‚¬3.7B
capital increase is close to 90% subscribed. || Deutsche bank [DBK.GE] spelled
out the details of its capital increase plan for â‚¬2B with a 40M share issue to
acquire Germany's Postbank [DPB.GE]. || Yell Group [YELL.UK] reported that its
trading was in line with forecasts, however it said it would lower its debt and
suspend its dividend. || Gas Natural [GAS.SP] completed its sale of a 15% stake
in its Mexican unit to Inbursa. || TDK purchased an additional 10% stake from
the main shareholder in Epcos [EPC.GE], bringing its position in the firm is
44%, noting that its takeover is assured. || Salzgitter
[SZG.GE] boosted its stake in Norddeutsche Affinerie to 17.6%, noting that
current market conditions prompted it to raise its stake
- In speakers, Australian Treasury Secretary Swan noted that Australia
is susceptible to the global financial crisis, noting that the global economy
is going through a difficult period although confidence remains. || The French
Finance Minister said the government has no plans for intervention to back the
financial industry. The EU's Almunia said risks remain for a potential global
economic downturn, noting that he sees divergences in the Euro economies.
Almunia noted that financial crisis continues to unsettle markets, and that the
Euro Zone has not been unaffected by the global economic slowdown and financial
market turmoil. || The Chinese central bank noted in its quarterly household
survey that bankers are seeing risks of economic slowdown, while export orders
fell 2.6% q/q. || Japan's LDP elected Taro Aso as party leader, succeeding PM
Fukuda. || Japanese Finance Minister Sugimoto stated there was no need for Japan
to set up fund like the one in US at this time, adding that Japan
has not received any requests from the US
for it to get involved in the bailout program. Sugimoto expects the US
measures to have a positive impact on the global economy and global markets. ||
Bundesbank noted that its GDP is being impacted by real economic pressures and
is showing signs of visable slowdown. The Bundesbank also noted that the
earnings situation will most likely worsen in the remainer of the year.
- In currencies, the greenback was mildly softer against the majors as dealers
evaluated the details emerging on the US
government bailout. The initial $700B price tag has raised questions about the
possibility that the US's
AAA debt rating could come under review. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.4570 and
the GBP/USD is around 1.8430, firmer by 100 pips from opening levels seen in Asia.
|| Malaysian Finance Minister Najib said he has no plans to adopt a currency
peg for the ringgit. || The Indian Trade Minister stated that the recent
decline in the INR should help India's
export markets, but noted that the current trade gap was worrisome. India
still expects to achieve $200B exports during 2008.
- In Energy: IEA's Ramsay stated that Oil prices at current levels remained too
high, but noted that supply has improved a bit since last May. OECD countries'
oil demand has softened more than expected, but unable to determined if overall
oil demand might fall. Non-opec oil supply remained relatively stable. IEA notd
that it is monitoring the US
bailout impact over oil demand closely. Stated that China
is facing tough times meeting its electricity demands but it's rapidly building
power capacity. Lastly Ramsay believed that the appropriate price of oil is
between $20 to $100 per barrel || Reportedly Nigeria's militant group MEND
announced a cease-fire agreement until further notice. However, over the
weekend the goup claimed responsibility for another Shell pipeline attack. In
an emailed statement MEND noted that it intended to attack Nigerian's oil
infrastructure until oil exports are reduced to "zero" || Saudi Arabia
reportedly lowered its oil supplies by a marginal amount to US refiners and to
oil majors since early Sept.
- In Fixed Income Supply: The German Finance Agency announced that it would
increase Q1 Bubill amount to â‚¬7.0B, This is a total increase in the amounts of
?2.3B. || Germany
confirmed its Q4 gross capital market borrowings at â‚¬30B
Riksbank stated that it would amend its collateral requirements for credit in
RIX, effective immediately. The changes permitted the central bank increased
the permitted share of covered bonds to 75%. || BoE offered $40B in overnight
repos. BOE: it Allotted $26.2B overnight with a bid-to-cover ratio of 0.65
times. || ECB called for bids in $40B 1-day repo, allotted the $40B at 3.25%
with a bid-to-cover of 2.05x|| SNB allotted $10 in overnight repos at 2.25%
with a bid-to-cover of 1.6x.
- In the papers: WSJ notes that the the Federal Reserve, in an attempt to
prevent the crisis on Wall Street from infecting its two premier institutions,
took the extraordinary measure on Sunday night of agreeing to convert
investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. into traditional
bank holding companies. Article noted that with the move, Wall Street as it has
long been known -- a coterie of independent brokerage firms that buy and sell
securities, advise clients and are less regulated than old-fashioned banks --
will cease to exist. Wall Street's two most prestigious institutions will come
under the close supervision of national bank regulators.
*** NOTES ***
Markets focused on the emerging details in regards to the US
financial bailout plan Dealers noting that the their attention is being drawn
to the fact that the deficit would likely have to dramatically increase in
size. Questions linger at this time ask to the price the US Treasury would pay
determined during the auction process. In the end this could still leave banks
vulnerable to more write downs and further under capitalization. Furthermore,
market players noting that US
growth could receive an addition soft spot and force the FED into a round of
interest rate cuts.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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