- Market players around the world are grappling with a radically altered Wall
Street landscape this morning. In its latest attempt to calm markets, the Fed
allowed Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to become bank holding companies on
Sunday night, implicitly abandoning the traditional investment banking business
model. Markets are predictably unsettled, with the all three of the major
indices off more than 1.5% in early trading. "This decision marks the end
of Wall Street as we know it" has been the recurring quote, as multiple
commentators weigh in on this significant change. The move places the firms
under the direct regulation of the Fed, paves the way for them to rely more
heavily on deposits and likely means leverage levels will fall substantially.
Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack says the new
structure will leave MS in the strongest possible position, and "...offers
the marketplace certainty about the strength of our financial position and our
access to funding." Deal news is also moving Morgan Stanley's stock this
morning: before the open, reports circulated that Mitsubishi UFJ would buy a
stake that would eventually reach 20% in the firm. The price has not been
settled as of yet, but will be based on MS's book value as agreed upon
following ongoing due diligence. Mitsubishi UFJ says it intends to invest up to
JPY900B. In addition, the FT reported that MS's talks with WB-9% may be
scrapped this week, although the firm is continuing discussions with China
Investment Corporation. MS is up 10% in early trading, while GS is down 4%. The
rest of the leading financials are under pressure, down 5-10%. WM-20% has
returned to the downside after recent strength over uncertainty regarding plans
to sell the company; this morning CNBC reported WM may wait until after the
details of the government bailout become clear to make any decision on a sale,
while the WSJ reported several scenarios overnight. AIG is up nearly 30%; CEO
Liddy told CNBC this morning that he plans to publish a list of assets to be
sold in seven to ten days. LM-18% is under serious pressure after the New York
Post reported the firm is mulling going private; the company denied the reports
after the open.
- The deeper ramifications of the short selling ban are surfacing this morning
as firm after firm announces plans to undertake large stock buybacks now that
there is a much-diminished threat from the shorts. HPQ has authorized an $8B
share buyback (6.7% of market cap), NKE has ok'ed a $5B share repurchase
program (20% of market cap), SYY is buying back 20M shares (3.3% of shares
outstanding) while MSFT has authorized a whopping $40B buyback (17% of market
cap) and boosted its dividend by 18%. SJI, RFIL, CVA and PCTI have also
announced share buybacks this morning. In addition, S&P assigned an
industrials AAA rating with a stable outlook to MSFT+4%. In other news,
used-car outfit KMX-3% is under pressure after missing EPS and revenue targets
this morning and reporting that same-store sales declined 17% for the quarter
y/y. AZO is up modestly after reporting in-line with estimates. MAR-3% after a
bomb leveled one of its hotels in Pakistan
over the weekend.
- Commodities continue to exhibit some relative strength on Greenback weakness
and continued demand for physical assets. WTI crude is trading around $108
while Dec gold has moved back above $900. Front-month silver and platinum have
gained more than 7% while copper is trading at $3.25. Grains are trading up
3-4% across the board led by wheat while the CRB has added roughly 2%.
- In currencies, the carry-related pairs moved higher as dealers watched risk
aversion ease off thanks to the government's bailout of US
financial sector. Asian currencies JPY and CHF were a touch softer as numerous US
equity names launched share buyback throughout the morning. The level of
financial market stress remains elevated however, as shown by today's Libor
fixings. The three-month USD Libor came in at 3.20% compared to Friday's level
of 3.21%. Overall the greenback remains softer among the major pairs thanks to
concerns over the gigantic price tag of the bailout and its implications for
the government's debt ceiling. USD weakness is helping commodities move higher.
- The ECB's Nowotny reiterated his view that central bank has no bias on
interest rates, adding that while inflation may be declining it remains above
target following August. In addition, he said Europe
will likely suffer from lower growth in 2009 given that global markets are
going through a period of extreme volatility. The ECB's Trichet reiterated his
familiar hawkish concerns over inflation, again repeating that price stability
remained his top priority. Trichet promised that the ECB will remain on alert
to sooth volatility in credit markets.
- Treasury prices have been under pressure from the onset of floor trading. In
late morning trade the yield curve is actually a bit flatter reversing the
overnight trend. The 2-year yield is back above 2.20% and athe 10-year is
nearing 3.90%. Dec Gilts -85 ticks at 110.08; Dec Bunds -68 ticks at 113.05.
Euro Stoxx 50 index -0.6% at 3,234; FTSE 100 Index -1.25%; CAC 40 Index -1.2%
and DAX Index -2%.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
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seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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