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Monday September 22, 2008 - 20:41:12 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report

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Morning Report  Tuesday 23 September 2008

 

 

News and views

The puncturing of equity market optimism over the US financial rescue plan (DJIA -380pts late session) and discussion over the US credit rating saw USD sold across the board. While Moody’s and Fitch reaffirmed the US’s AAA rating, there was open scepticism over the agencies’ stance. Financial stocks were among the hardest hit but Morgan Stanley outperformed after Japan’s biggest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ agreed to pay up to $8.4bn for a 10-20% stake. Dollar weakness encouraged demand for commodities, with the CRB Index jumping 3.9%. NZD/USD chopped around 0.6860-0.6900 until the NY morning where it joined in the broad USD selling, rallying to 0.6945.

 

AUD/USD marched firmly higher, from the 0.8325 area in the London morning to over 0.8500 in late NY.

 

EUR/USD had another very strong London-NY session, adding a hefty 3.5 cents to the mid-1.4800s, with London traders reporting China selling plenty of dollars.

 

USD/JPY was range-bound for some time, in the mid-106s, but as equity losses accelerated in the NY afternoon, the yen’s safe haven bids returned, sending the pair to 105.20.

 

US Chicago Fed national activity index falls from –0.93 to –1.59 in Aug. This index is synthesized from 85 previously published economic indicators, so doesn’t really tell us anything new, though its August result was the weakest since 2001, when the economy was last in recession.

 

Bank of Japan minutes. The minutes to the meeting of August 18 and 19 describe a board that was becoming more concerned about domestic cyclical prospects and wary about external risks. Recent events will have amplified both concerns. We do not see any rate moves in Japan for a very considerable time.

 

UK house prices down 1.0% in Sep. The Rightmove index recorded its fourth consecutive monthly decline, to be down 3.3% yr, a less steep decline than that recorded by the major lender house price surveys which are already recording double digit annual paces of decline.

 

Canadian retail sales up 0.1% in July. Auto sales were down 0.6% but ex auto rose 0.4%, with negligible impact from gasoline prices in the month.

 

Outlook

NZD/USD remains prone to US-driven volatility but our bias is towards underlying decline ahead of what should be poor NZ GDP data on Friday. AUD/NZD remains a buy on dips.

 

Papers/Publications

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (22 September)

• NZ Q2 Current Account Review (19 September)

• NZ Q2 GDP Preview (18 September)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (15 September)

• Q2 Current Account Preview (12 September)

• RBNZ MPS Review (11 September)

• NZ Q2 Terms of Trade (10 September)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

23 Sep US Sep Richmond Fed Index –16 –10

Jul House Prices flat –0.2%

Eur Sep PMI Manufacturing Adv 47.6 47.0

Sep PMI Services Adv 48.5 48.0

Jul Industrial Orders –0.3% –0.8%

UK Aug Mortgage Lending £bn 22.4 –

Can Aug Consumer Price Index %yr 3.4% 3.4%

Aug CPI BoC Core %yr 1.5% 1.5%

24 Sep NZ Q3 Consumer Confidence 81.7 –

US Aug Existing Home Sales 3.1% flat

 

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 



 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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