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Thursday December 2, 2004 - 01:46:25 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S Dollar 2nd December 2004

Price: ... 1.3358

Resistance: 1.3365 ... 1.3395 ... 1.3425 ... 1.3475
Support....: 1.3334 ... 1.3306 ... 1.3270 ... 1.3247

Bias: Initial resistance is at 1.3395 and after a correction at 1.3425

Bullish: The 1.3336 level broke this morning and we have seen further strength. This has a temporary resistance area at 1.3365 but while any correction remains above 1.3327 we look for the gains to then extend higher to 1.3385-95 where a pullback is expected at the very least. Further resistance is at 1.3418-25 which does have potential to cap.

Bearish: With this morning's break higher we need to concentrate on the important resistance areas. First thing we expect a return to the 1.3327-30 area from where a rally to 1.3385-95 is possible. We expect this to generate a pullback that could return to the 1.3312-27 area once again. However, any stronger bearish stance will require a break below 1.3306 and 1.3275 which would then allow follow-through to the 1.3228 area which should allow a brief correction. Further support is seen at 1.3182 and 1.3153.



Elliott Wave Comments:

December 1st 2004

Price managed to reach 1.3333 only yesterday but we feel this is merely the Wave b of a Flat Correction from 1.3329. This would imply a test of the wave a low at 1.3182 and we should allow for a small overlap to 1.3153 which represents a 50% correction of Wave iii. This would still allow room for a Wave v within Wave -c- to target the ideal 1.3418-25 target.

Given that a cycle high was anticipated around this time, any break below 1.3153 would then suggest that the larger corection has begun and we would then expect to see a move down to Wave -b- at 1.2936 at least.

December 2nd 2004

Price development since the original 1.3329 high has not looked too bullish and could still be part of an expanded flat correction which would have a 38.2% projection at 1.3385. If we see failure here and a move lower than breaks below 1.3312-27 then the odds would then favor amove back to the initial corrective low at 1.3182 and possibly the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3153. A more strongly bearish medium term scenario would therefore require a break of 1.3150.




(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004

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