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Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 10:49:57 GMT
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Forex Blog - Dollar Rebounds as EZ Data Disappoints But Attention Turns to Paulson and Bernanke

Dollar Rebounds as EZ Data Disappoints But Attention Turns to Paulson and Bernanke Last Updated 9/23/2008 5:47:50 AM EST (GMT +5)

Top Stories

  • Dollar higher as EZ data disappoints
  • Paulson and Bernanke testify in Congress trying to drum up support for $700B bailout
  • Asian markets sharply lower as US lawmakers debate proposal
  • Tokyo on holiday
  • Chinese officials need to diversify out of US assets
  • Officials to review oil’s $25 super spike yesterday
  • AIG to quickly sell assets to service $85 Billion loan
  • Barclay’s to offer jobs to 10,000 LEH employees
  • Oil slides to$106.00 form $109 high
  • Gold at $890 just off $900 handle

Overnight Eco

  • EUR French consumer spending –0.3% vs-0.1% prior
  • EUR Flash PMI45.3 services 48.2 lowest since 03
  • GBP BBA Mortgage approvals 21.1K against 20.5K expected-64% on year over basis

Event Risk on Tap

  • CAD CPI expected –0.1% from month prior
  • USD HousingPrice index market looks at –0.3% contraction
  • Paulson and Bernnake on tap

Price Action

  • USD/JPY back to 106.00 despite weak equities as pro dollar flows dominate
  • AUD/USD trades best at 8400 as commodity prices support
  • GBP/USD mulls around 1.8500 as traders look to Paulson testimony
  • EUR/USD: retraces to 1.4700 as eco news weighs but attention soon to turn to Paulson

Dollar Rebounds as EZ Data Disappoints But Attention Turns to Paulson and Bernanke

Flash reading from the EZ PMI Manufacturing and Services surveys printed far weaker than expected and drove the EURUSD lower for much of the early European session. PMI Manufacturing declined to 45.3 and services dipped to 48.2 – their worst performance since flash readings were started - as both gauges are now clearly contracting.

The poor results from the PMI data suggest that demand in the 15 member union continues to decelerate and indicates that growth in the region may slow to a crawl of less than 1% in 2009.Given that scenario the ECB may begin to modify its “take no prisoners” hawkish stanceand could startlowering rates in the first half of next year.

For now however, European monetary authorities continue to focus on inflationary pressures especially as crude remains firmly above the $100/bbl handle. We have long argued that only an increase in unemployment rate will push the officials in Frankfurt to a more accommodative policy posture and given tonight’s disappointing PMI results that appears to be more likely in the upcoming months. EZ labor demand which has been surprisingly resilient in the wake of broad economic slowdown in the region, may compress under the pressure of declining growth and motivate to ECB to finally ease.

Tonight’s dour economic news momentarily turned the markets attention away from the major theme of the week – namely the fiscal implications of the proposed $700 Billion bailout of US financial institutions. Today both Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson will testify in front of an increasingly skeptical Congress trying to provide more details about the rescue plan. As we noted yesterday, US fiscal authorities may have underestimated the political backlash from the legislative branch and if today’s testimony hearings reveal that the plan as is faces serious opposition on Capitol Hill, dollar selling may resume with EURUSD rallying irrespective of the economic fundamentals at play.

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 12:30 8:30 CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.1% 0.3%
USD 14:00 10:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP) -15 -15
USD 14:00 10:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (JUL) -0.3% 0.0%

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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