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Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 10:55:39 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European PMI data suggests sluggish growth at best, central banks continue with generous liquidity provisions

Today 06:10am

European Market Update: European PMI data suggests sluggish growth at best, central banks continue with generous liquidity provisions

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (FR) Aug Consumer Spending M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.4%e

- (FR) Sept Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 43.6 v 46.0e; PMI Services: 50.4 v 47.7e

- (FR) Sept Consumer confidence: 102.8 v 98.4e

- (GE) Sept Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 48.1 v 49.2e; PMI Services: 49.3 v 50.7e

- (EU) Sept Advance PMI Manufacturing: 45.3 v 47.3e (lowest since Dec 2001); PMI Services: 48.2 v 48.0e (lowest since Jun 2003); PMI Composite: 47.0 v 47.8e

- 4:30 (UK) BBA Loans for house purchase: 21,086 v 22,239 prior (lowest on record)

- 5:00 (EU) Jul Industrial new Orders M/M: 1.0% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v -3.6%e

- (SA) S. Africa Aug CPI: M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 13.7% v 13.6%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight, Vestas Wind System [VWS.DC] received a 28MW order from Brazil's Gargau Energetica. || Sanofi-Aventis [SAN.FR] received FDA approval for Nasacort AQ nasal spray for children aged two to five. || Tate & Lyle [TATE.UK] provided an update on its ITC case, stating that the judge did not agree with its claims. The judge's initial determination concerning the infringement ruling follows the trial earlier this year. A binding final determination by the full six-person commission is expected by January 2009. || Severn tavern [SVT.UK] reported H1 trading in line with expectations, despite continued volatility in chemical and other commodity prices. || Mitchells & Butlers [MAB.UK] provided a trading update for nine weeks to September 20. The company sees resilient same-store sales over the coming weeks. Company is continuing discussions on REIT conversion, although market conditions remain challenging. || JDSports Fashion [JD.UK] reported H1 EPS 12.45p v 7.29p y/y, revenues came in at £298.9M compared to £250.5M a year ago. Net profit at £6M versus £3.5M year ago. Gross margins improved from 48.0% from year-ago levels of to 48.2%. || Escada [ESC.GE] reported nine-month revenue €438.4M v €501.3M y/y. The Company guided FY08 net loss at least as large as 2007 and EBITA in range of €23-26M. It forecasted that full-year sales would fall in line with trends from the first nine months. || Daimler [DAI.GE] reported YTD truck sales of 311K units compared to 309.7K a year ago. Its Mercedes-Benz transporter sales were up 6% to 196K vehicles through August. The company stated that it had no plans to separate car and truck business as it continues to see synergies in the operations. || Lanxess [LXS.GE] increased prices at three business units, effective Oct 1, citing increased transport, energy and raw material costs. || The South Korean Central Bank released the minutes from its August rate decision, noting that it voted five to one to raise interest rates and believes inflation will stay high for a significant period. Dissenter Kang noted that slower growth is a larger threat than inflation, adding that higher interest rates would further slow the economy. The Italian government lowered its 2008 GDP forecast to 0.1% from 0.5% prior view. || German union IG Metall reiterated its demands for an 8% wage increase.

- In speakers, the ECB's Trichet reiterated standard ECB concerns about inflation in a newspaper interview, stating that price stability remains the central bank's top priority and cautioned that the bank must be alert for any second-round inflationary effects. Tricet confirmed again that inflation must be brought down to the 2.0% target. || Spain's Solbes said that it was logical for the ECB to lower interest rates as economic growth slows. || The ECB's Paramo reiterated that medium-term price stability in remains the ECB's priority. || The ECB's Kranjec stated that there is an obvious slowdown in Euro Zone economic activity, noting that the US bailout plan will calm nerves in financial markets. || The IMF's Strauss-Kahn stated that the global financial crisis demands a systemic response, adding that the roles of credit rating must be redefined.

- In currencies, the greenback firmed throughout the European session as the economic front heightened concerns over slower Euro-Zone growth. USD also aided by a retracement in commodity prices following steep gains in both oil and gold prices on Monday. The USD suffered its largets 1-day decline against the Euro as the Oct NYMEX crude surged $30 per barrel to trade at $130. EUR/USD probed back below the 1.47 level before consolidating its session gains. .

In Energy: Statoil [STL.NO] Denied its is planning to develop Iran's Araran oil field and added that it was reducing operation in that country. || Goldman sachs commented about the record rise in oil prices on Monday. Analyst stated that oil price rally on Monday shows that supplies remain tight. Stated that traders squeezed when Oct NYMEX contract expired. Analyst reiterated that it expects oil to move towards $115/barrel level

- In Fixed Income Supply

- The UK sold £450M 1.25% 2055 I/L Gilts with an average yield of 0.614% and a bid-to-cover of 2.28 times.

- Credit crisis: China is reportedly considering a US-style bank bailout proposal. Some in government t remained concerned that China's bank exposure is understated. The source noted that the Chinese Ministry of Finance (MOF) has met to discussed a potential bond issue to finance any bailout, but these discussions have not progressed to state council. || Kuwait Investment Authority stated that it is not responsible for saving foreign banks or economies. || ECB stated that €2.1B was used in its marginal lending facility on Monday

- In the papers: WSJ reported that the BOE may have to raise interest rates to offset prior miscall on rates. The article cite a BOE paper as its source.

*** NOTES ***

- The Euro-Zone PMI exhibited the softness that is enveloping the European growth scenario. The overall EU PMI data showed multi-year lows with the Manufacturing PMI at its lowest reading since Dec 2001 and the PMI Services registering its lowest reading since Jun 2003. The UK BBA loans for House prices registered that lowest reading on record. Dealer chatter still reeling over the commodity and USD price movements seen yesterday. Dealings citing a series of “special factors” had a strong influence on trade Monday highlighting with the short squeeze on the maturing October crude oil contract. Central banks continue with their generous amount of USD liquidity into local markets.

Looking ahead: The market will continue to focus of the details of the US financial market bailout. Testimonies from Fed Chairman Bernanke and US Tsy Sec Paulson will begin later this morning.

- 7:00 (CA) Aug Consumer price Index M/M: -0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y 3.5%e v 3.4% prior

- 7:00 (CA) Aug Core CPI M/M: 0.1%e 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.55 prior

- 9:00 (BE) Sept Business Confidence -6.9e v -5.9 prior

- 10:00 (US) Sept Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: -12e v -16 priors

- 10:00 (US) Jul House Price index M/M: -0.2%e v 0.0% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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