spent a good portion of the London/NY overlap watching Fedâ€™s Bernanke and
Treasuryâ€™s Paulson explain to sceptical politicians why it was essential their rescue
plan is passed quickly with few changes. There were few other distractions and no
resolution on the day, leaving USD Index little changed to a touch firmer.
Equities started optimistically but weakened, DJIA sitting -150pts in late
trade. Financial stocks were generally soft but nowhere near as volatile as on
previous days. NZD/USD was quiet around 0.6900 until a
downturn in US equities pulled it as low as 0.6780, then returning to 0.6825.
more than a cent as the DJIA turned gains to sizeable losses, with lows under
0.8300 and late NY levels around 0.8365.
a range of roughly 1.4625 to 1.4800, sitting around 1.4700 in late NY. The
German IFO survey of business sentiment will be closely watched later today.
quieter than usual, bumping around with a 105 handle and no real direction.
US Richmond Fed
index weaker across the board in Sep. The Richmond Fed survey showed further
weakness in manufacturing, retailing and services. This contrasts with the
stronger Philly Fed factory survey released last week, possibly because more Richmond respondents
submitted their surveys in the light of last weekâ€™s financial market turmoil.
house prices fell for the fifth month running in July on the
little watched OFHEO measure, which appears to way understate the extent of
house price decline compared to the more closely watched National Association
of Realtor and S&PCase Shiller series.
weekly retail reports were soft. Chain store sales fell 1.0% in the week ended
19/9, a further decline following the hurricane impacted 1.6% fall in the prior
week. The Redbook retail average slipped from â€“1.1% to â€“1.2%.
chair Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Paulson, SEC chair Cox and Federal Housing
Finance Agency chair Lockhart were grilled by a mostly hostile SenateBanking
Committee last night regarding the proposed $700bn public fund topurchase the
toxic waste accumulated by the US banking system.
PMI advance readings soft in Sep. Both the services and factory PMIs fell
further below 50 in September, another strong signal that Euroland GDP growth will
contract in Q3, on top of Q2â€™s 0.2% pull-back from Q1â€™s growth spurt. That would,
of course, confirm that Euroland is in recession. Backing that message, French spending
figures showed a subdued consumer through the summer; and Belgian business confidence
slumped to its lowest since 2003. However there was a surprise 1% rise in Euroland
orders back in August, although the strength was concentrated in transport (so
it could be a lumpy Airbus order going through). Ex transport, ordersm fell
1.4% in August.
British Bankersâ€™ Association reported just 21.1k new mortgages in August, down from
22.5k in July and 54.6k a year earlier.
headline inflation accelerated further to 3.5% yr in Aug, despite gasoline
prices falling. The main reason was a step up in core inflation to 1.7% yr, its
highest yet this year, it remains below the mid-point of the 1-3% target band.
remains prone to US-driven volatility but our bias is towards underlying decline
ahead of what should be poor NZ GDP data on Friday. AUD/NZD remains a buy on
Strategy, 0800 922 239
contributions from Westpac Economics
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (22 September)
â€¢ NZ Q2
Current Account Review (19 September)
â€¢ NZ Q2 GDP
Preview (18 September)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (15 September)
â€¢ Q2 Current
Account Preview (12 September)
â€¢ RBNZ MPS
Review (11 September)
â€¢ NZ Q2
Terms of Trade (10 September)
â€¢ NZ Agribiz
September 2008 (8 September)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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