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Tuesday September 23, 2008 - 20:59:49 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report



Morning
Report 
Wednesday 24 September 2008



 



News
and views



Markets
spent a good portion of the London/NY overlap watching Fed’s Bernanke and
Treasury’s Paulson explain to sceptical politicians why it was essential their rescue
plan is passed quickly with few changes. There were few other distractions and no
resolution on the day, leaving USD Index little changed to a touch firmer.
Equities started optimistically but weakened, DJIA sitting -150pts in late
trade. Financial stocks were generally soft but nowhere near as volatile as on
previous days.
NZD/ USD was quiet around 0.6900 until a
downturn in US equities pulled it as low as 0.6780, then returning to 0.6825.



 



AUD/USD
fell
more than a cent as the DJIA turned gains to sizeable losses, with lows under
0.8300 and late NY levels around 0.8365.



 



EUR/USD
traded
a range of roughly 1.4625 to 1.4800, sitting around 1.4700 in late NY. The
German IFO survey of business sentiment will be closely watched later today.



 



USD/JPY
was
quieter than usual, bumping around with a 105 handle and no real direction.



 



US Richmond Fed
index weaker across the board in Sep.
The Richmond Fed survey showed further
weakness in manufacturing, retailing and services. This contrasts with the
stronger Philly Fed factory survey released last week, possibly because more
Richmond respondents
submitted their surveys in the light of last week’s financial market turmoil.



 



US
house prices fell for the fifth month running in July
on the
little watched OFHEO measure, which appears to way understate the extent of
house price decline compared to the more closely watched National Association
of Realtor and S&PCase Shiller series.



 



US
weekly retail reports were soft.
Chain store sales fell 1.0% in the week ended
19/9, a further decline following the hurricane impacted 1.6% fall in the prior
week. The Redbook retail average slipped from –1.1% to –1.2%.



 



Fed
chair Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Paulson, SEC chair Cox and Federal Housing
Finance Agency chair Lockhart
were grilled by a mostly hostile Senate Banking
Committee last night regarding the proposed $700bn public fund to
purchase the
toxic waste accumulated by the US banking system.



 



Euroland
PMI advance readings soft in Sep.
Both the services and factory PMIs fell
further below 50 in September, another strong signal that Euroland GDP growth will
contract in Q3, on top of Q2’s 0.2% pull-back from Q1’s growth spurt. That would,
of course, confirm that Euroland is in recession. Backing that message, French spending
figures showed a subdued consumer through the summer; and Belgian business confidence
slumped to its lowest since 2003. However there was a surprise 1% rise in Euroland
orders back in August, although the strength was concentrated in transport (so
it could be a lumpy Airbus order going through). Ex transport, ordersm fell
1.4% in August.



 



The
British Bankers’ Association reported just 21.1k new mortgages in August,
down from
22.5k in July and 54.6k a year earlier.



 



Canadian
headline inflation accelerated further to 3.5% yr in Aug,
despite gasoline
prices falling. The main reason was a step up in core inflation to 1.7% yr, its
highest yet this year, it remains below the mid-point of the 1-3% target band.



 



Outlook



NZD/USD
remains prone to US-driven volatility but our bias is towards underlying decline
ahead of what should be poor NZ GDP data on Friday. AUD/NZD remains a buy on
dips.



 



Westpac
Strategy,
0800 922 239



With
contributions from Westpac Economics



 



Latest
Research Papers/Publications



• NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (22 September)



• NZ Q2
Current Account Review (19 September)



• NZ Q2 GDP
Preview (18 September)



• NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (15 September)



• Q2 Current
Account Preview (12 September)



• RBNZ MPS
Review (11 September)



• NZ Q2
Terms of Trade (10 September)



• NZ Agribiz
September 2008 (8 September)



These
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac



Institutional
Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)



 



Events
Today



Country
Release Last Forecast



NZ Q3
Consumer Confidence 81.7 –



US Aug
Existing Home Sales 3.1% flat



Fed Chair
Bernanke testimony before Joint Econ Committee



Jpn Q3 BSI
Large All–Industry %qtr –15.2 –



Q3 BSI Large
Manufacturers %qtr –15.1 –



Eur Jul
Current Account €bn –8.2 –



Ger Sep Ifo
Business Climate Index 94.8 95.2



UK Sep CBI
Retail Report, net bal % –46% –



 



 



 



Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007
457 141 incorporated in
Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14
November 2007
. All
customers please note that this
information
has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation
or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this
information, consider its appropriateness,
having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian
customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284
8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The
information may contain material provided
directly by third parties, and while such material is published with
permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness
of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this
notice to exclude liability for the
information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the
information or correct any inaccuracy which
may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated
for the conduct of investment business in the
United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. ©
2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator
of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in
character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on
which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by
incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The
ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.






 





 

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