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Thursday September 25, 2008 - 10:28:50 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: Slower global growth concerns continue to mount

European market Update: Slower global growth concerns continue to mount


- (GE) Oct GFK Consumer Confidence Survey: 1.8 v 1.5e;

- (SP) Spain Aug Producer Prices M/M: -0.8% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 9.2% v 9.5%e;

- (CZ) Sept Business Confidence: 13.4 v 16.8 prior; Consumer Confidence: -5.7 v -4.6 prior; Consumer & Business Confidence: 9.5 v 12.6 prior.

- (IT) Sept Retailers Confidence: 111.0 v 104.0e; Services Survey: -2 v -7 prior

- (NE) Sept Producer Confidence: -0.5 v 3.0e; Consumer Confidence: -22 v -29e

- (NE) July Consumer Spending Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior.

- (NE) Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.8%e

- (SW) Aug PPI M/M: 0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6%e

- (SW) Aug Household Lending Y/Y: 10.2% v 10.5% prior

- (SW) Aug Trade Balance: SEK1.40B v SEK9.4B prior.

- (IT) July Trade Balance (Total): €2.07 v -€1.03B prior. Trade Balance EU: €3.69B v €1.33B prior.

-(EU) Aug Euro-Zone M3 Y/Y: 8.8% v 9.1%e; Euro-Zone M3 (SA) 3-Month Avg: 9.2% v 9.3%

- (SP) July Trade Balance: -€8.0B v -€8.67B prior

- (HK) Aug Trade Balance: -12.9B v -19.5B prior

- (SA) S. Africa Aug PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 19.1% v 19.3%e

- (TT) Taiwan Central Bank cuts its benchmark interest rate by 12.5bps to 3.50%, not expected (Was expected to hold rates steady).

- (CZ) Czech Central Bank left its interest rates unchanged at 3.50%, as expected.


- In equities news overnight: DSM [DSM.NV] Guided FY08 EBITDA €1.03B-€1.08B v €970M prior guidance, Reaffirms FY10 targets. The company continued to benefit from favorable market conditions, particularly in Nutrition and Fertilizers and that its Materials Sciences activities are showing sufficient resilience to the more difficult macro-economic environment || Renewable Energy Corp [REC.NO] Signs contract with Neo Solar Power worth NOK2.6B || Glaxo [GSK.UK] UK press article cited that a Cornell Medical Center study on SEROXAT stated that some antidepressant drugs could damage sperm quality and harm fertility. || Lonza [LONN.SZ: Entered into a global sale, manufacturing and distribution agreement of Permexcis with Crucell. Under this agreement, Lonza would manufacture the medium, and in addition will market and sell it on a global basis. || Repol [REP.SP] REP.SP: Reportedly the French press noted tha both Total and Shell are mulling potential acquisition of company.

Sacyr reiterated its stance on repol that it was considering options regarding its stakes in Repsol. || Veolia [VIE.FR Eiffage confirmed that it was in advanced discussions to acquire Veolia's Clemessy, Crystal units. || Solvay [SOLB.BE] entered into a joint development pact with Strategic Polymer Sciences || DELL: CEO Michael Dell stated that he saw some impact from financial market crisis on its business; but expected contract manufacturing to grow. He added that the company wouldl maintain its own factories. Lastly had no plans to introduce phone device this year. || Scania [SCVA.SW] SCVB.SW: Reportedly Volkswagon and Man may be preparing takeover for remainder of co. for SEK135/shr offer.

- Speakers: BoJ Noda stated that he saw more economic downside risks then upside risks. The Tensions in the financial markets are likely to remain for some time. The Japanese economic recovery would likely start sometime in late 2009. The official note that the global financial crisis was deeper than previously expected. || ECB's Nowotny bluntly stated that there was no room for ECB to cut interest rates and reiterated that the central bank's mandate remains price stability. The ECB is prepared to inject massive liquidity. || Japan Econ Min Yosano stated that Japan's economic slowdown would end once its export sector recovered. He noted that interest rate would do little to stimulate economy. The official added that any sales tax increase should be implemented gradually and that corporate taxes should be cut. ||Polish Central Bank member reiterated that recent data points to economic slowdown but that that inflation remains a main concern. The member noted that the Polish economy may need one more interest rate increase. || EU Almunia stated that he Looks forward to a resolution of financial market crisis from US. He added the he see no EU growth for the next two years following Slovakia entry in 2009. The EU would face difficult times ahead, but economy should start a gradual economy in Q4.

- In Currencies: USD is trading lower against the EUR, CHF, JPY and GBP with the weaknes due to the Because of the dysfunctional interbank deposit markets. Dealers indicate that three-month USD Libor seen around 3.7%-4.7% range compared to Wed fixing of 3.48%

- TED Spread early indication seen in the 370-420 bps range v 300 bps in NY on Wed

In Energy:

Russian Energy Ministry announced that it planned to work with OPEC on influencing global oil prices. Russia would unveil new plan at the December OPEC meeting. Russia stated that its sought to ensure stability in 'rollercoaster' oil market and could create 'reserve' fields for swing production. || (UK) MET Office forecasted a milder winter for UK, but temparture would be 'somewhat' colder compared to 2007 levels. || UBS Analyst Forecasted 2009 NYMEX oil price at $125/barrel . Shell [RDS.A] Confirmed halting a gasoline cracker at Pernis refinery (416K bpd) citing a mechanical fault

- In Fixed Income Supply: (IT) Italy sold €3.5B in zero coupon 2010 bonds with avg yield of 4.298%; bid-to-cover 1.56x. || UK sold £2.5B 4.50% 2019 Gilts with avg yield 4.733% and a bid-to-cover of 2.19 times. || (NE) Dutch DSTA noted that it would reopen its 4.0% 2011 DSL in the amount of €1.5B-€2.5B on Nov 11th.

*** NOTES ***

The slower global growth scenario weighed upon the oil markets highlighted by a Russian bank analyst downgrading its forecast for 2008 GDP. The HK trade balance improved for all the wrong reasons as both imports and exports came in below expectations. NYMEX Nov crude futures fell from session highs of 106.50 to probe below $104 before rebounding.

Looking ahead: Traders will again closely watched the US weekly jobless claims, Durable goods orders and New homes sales. There are a a number of Fed officials to appear. The sawp markets continue to suggest elevated concerns over the US financial market bailout package. The situation is having a global impact in more ways than imagined. the Chinese regulator warned Chinese banks over credit and liquidity risks -and need to monitor changes in global markets and to be cautions due to international risks.

- 8:30 (US) Aug Durable Goods Orders: Consensus expectations are -1.9%; The prior number is 1.3%. Durables Ex Transportation: Consensus expectations are -0.5%; The prior number is 0.7%.

- 8:30 (US) Sept 20 Initial Jobless Claims: Consensus expectations are 450K; The prior number is 455K. Sept 13 Continuing Claims: Consensus expectations are 3510K; The prior number is 3478K.

- 8:30 (CZ) Czech Central Bank holds rate-setting meeting

- 10:00 (US) August New Home Sales: Consensus expectations are 510K; The prior number is 515K. New Home Sales M/M: Consensus expectations are -1.0; The prior number is 2.4%.



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A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
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