User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday September 25, 2008 - 19:41:39 GMT
Larry Greenberg -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Dollar's Performance Under Different Presidential Administrations

This is the fourth in a series of five examinations of comparative performances for key U.S. economic indicators during the nine presidencies since John Kennedy.  Equity prices were the focus on Monday, consumer prices were studied on Tuesday, and employment growth was dissected on Wednesday.

The euro did not exist in 1961.  The yen was a backwater currency.  Trade flows have changed so much in the last half-century as to render any trade-weighted dollar index a poor measure for this kind of study.  Another big transformation was the switch from fixed dollar rates to a flexible dollar regime after February 1973.  The best measure to use is the Deutschmark, which was the most representative gauge of dollar sentiment prior to 1999 and which segued nicely into the euro thereafter at 1.95583 marks for every euro.  EUR/USD continues to be the most important bilateral dollar pair.

Dollar stability is generally desired but not an expected outcome.  Allowing currency parities to move in response to market forces enables economies to absorb shocks and counteract cumulating disparities in fundamental economic trends between the United States and other industrial economies.  At times, one may want the dollar to fall, for instance if it is extremely overvalued and contributing to a widening and unsustainable trade and current account deficit.  Choosing between gradual appreciation or gradual depreciation over the long run, however, one would much rather see a strengthening dollar, as such reflects investor confidence in the U.S. economy and Fed policy.  Also, the dollar’s role as the world’s paramount reserve currency asset, which bestows many privileges, would be jeopardized if it sank every month.

My original August 19th article that compared five economic vital signs when the U.S. president was a Democrat to when the person was a Republican excluded Kennedy and Johnson from consideration because their presidencies occurred entirely during the fixed dollar era.  This article includes those administrations, since the Deutschmark revalued against the dollar in 1961.  This inclusion does not change the 3.6% per annum rate of dollar depreciation during those twenty years between 1961 and 2000 when the United States was governed by a Republican Administration.  But the 0.8% per annum average rate of appreciation for the twelve years covering the Carter and Clinton administrations gets bumped down to 0.3% per annum when the Kennedy and Johnson years are added to the mix.

I reported yesterday that the four Democrat administrations achieved the four fastest rates of job growth.  Democrats also owned three of the four best dollar performances.  The dollar rose 3.5% per annum against the mark during the eight Clinton years, was unchanged during the Johnson administration, and fell just 1.5% per annum when Kennedy was president.  The Republican administration with the best net dollar change was Reagan (down 1.0% per annum), followed by Ford (-2.9% p.a.), and Bush the elder (-3.5% p.a.).  The dollar got hammered during the first half of the Carter administration and fell 4.4% per annum over the whole four years of that presidency despite closing 18% higher than the trough.  The dollar has depreciated 5.7% per annum against the euro so far during the second Bush administration, ranking eighth out of the last nine presidencies on this criterion.  Only a drop of 7.6% per annum during the time when Nixon was president was more steep.  That period included formal devaluations in December 1971 and February 1973 and the eventual abandonment of a fixed dollar international monetary system in March 1973.

One final observation — the dollar rose on balance in only one of the last nine presidencies.  Regardless of which party is in power,  a clear pattern of depreciation is firmly established for the last half-century.  One of the great paradoxes of the dollar’s leadership in reserve asset portfolios is its failure on one of the major desired qualities of a reserve currency, which is being a reliable store of value.  In light of the dollar’s past performance and in spite of two multiyear periods of considerable appreciation, the burden of proof when making a long-term dollar forecast belong to those who think it will appreciate.  That looks especially true for now in light of this past month’s upheaval in the banking system.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105