equity rally on optimism over a deal on the bailout package by Monday helped
USD post moderate gains despite dismal US economic data. Lawmakers left a bipartisan
meeting offering no details but confident that they had a plan that would pass
House and Senate. The DJIA opened firmly and held its gains to around 180pts in
late trade. This came despite worse than consensus reading on jobless claims
(493K), Aug durable goods orders (-4.5%) and new home sales (-11.5%). Money
markets remained very tight. Despite the improved risk environment (at least
for equities), NZD/USD lost about 50 pips to 0.6830 in late NY.
to its 0.8427 high after the US durable
goods and claims data but eased to 0.8355 amid broad USD demand.
trended lower as US equity
sentiment improved, losingabout a cent to the low 1.4600s. Its NY high of
around 1.4735 printed soon after the woeful US housing
as far as 107.02 from 105.80 in early NY on optimism over the bailout plan and
its implications for equities. The pair retreated to 106.30-40 however asmoney
markets showed no signs of improvement and equities cooled a little.
home sales fall 11.5% in Aug, to a new cycle low of 460k annualised, compared
to the July 2005 peak of 1389k: thatâ€™s a fall of exactly two thirds or 67% over
the past three years. In August, the declines were steepest in the West (â€“36.1%)
which provides some support for our view that new home sales are being cannibalized
by existing home sales. In the West, S&P-Case Shiller have reported
established house price declines of as much as 30% yr, which builders simply
canâ€™t compete with, so potential new home buyers are instead snapping up
pre-loved bargains. Hence existing home sales bottomed out nearly a year ago,
whereas the downtrend in new home sales remains as steep as ever.
durable goods orders fell 4.5% in Aug, their first decline since
April, driven lower by sharply weaker Boeing foreign demand; and autos, which
slumped 8.1% in the month. But even excluding transport, orders were soft, with
the core capital goods component reversing all of the prior two monthsâ€™ gains
in August. Defence orders, up 9.4%, actually flattered the report to some
extent. There have been grounds to suspect that recent resilience in orders
(i.e. prior to August) reflected strength of demand from outside the United
States; if that is correct then the support for the economy that we have seen
from solid net export growth in recent quarters might now be dissipating.
initial jobless claims jumped 32k to 493k last week but the
Labor Dept attributed some of that increase to dislocation caused by Hurricane
Ike. Together, Gustav a few weeks back and more recently Ike accounted for
about 50k claims spread over recent weeks. But even without that weather
impact, there has been an underlying trend higher in initial claims which
suggests that the monthly job statistics will soon be painting a more depressed
picture of labour market conditions.
corporate service prices dip in Aug. The corporate services price index (CSPI)
slipped 0.4%mth but base effects saw the annual pace edge up to 1.4%yr from 1.3%yr.
money supply growth continued to decelerate in Aug, to 8.8% yr, as
did the pace of growth of bank loans to households and businesses, down from
9.4% yr to 8.8% yr. In Nov last year, M3 growth peaked at 12.3% yr, so there
has been a significant unwind of the upside risk to inflation that the European
Central Bank attributes to rapid money supply growth. In other news German GfK
consumer confidence edged up from 1.6 to 1.8 in October (actually surveyed
early September, so prior to the latest financial market turmoil). That
compares to a reading of 6.7 a year ago.
NZâ€™s Q2 GDP
data today are in close focus despite the lack of timeliness. Ahead of the release
we are inclined to sell NZD/USD especially with dairy prices slammed by the Chinese
milk scandal. AUD/NZD remains a buy on dips, targeting 1.25.
NZ Q3 Consumer Confidence (24 September)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (22 September)
NZ Q2 Current Account Review (19 September)
NZ Q2 GDP Preview (18 September)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (15 September)
Q2 Current Account Preview (12 September)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.