was whippy in London/NY and finally little changed as markets watched ongoing
inconclusive headlines about the financial rescue package. The S&P 500 rose
a modest 0.3%, the DJIA +1.1%. Financials were very mixed, including investors
approving of JP Morganâ€™s deal for WaMu deposits (+11%) but worrying over
Wachovia (-27%, lower again in after market). NZD/USD squeezed up
to a 0.6901 high in NY but spent most of its time in the mid-0.68s, closing the
week at 0.6860.
under pressure in London, touching a
low of 0.8240 but rebounded to as high as 0.8380, closing at 0.8310.
about a one cent range, closing in the middle of it, at 1.4610. There were
concerns over European banks, especially Belgiumâ€™s Fortis,
which replaced its CEO, but the main focus was the US.
livelier than most, bouncing sharply from its early NY low at 105.03 to finish
at 106.00 as equities closed just about on their highs, having opened in
growth was revised down from 3.3% annualised to 2.8% in Q2, mainly due
to a lower estimate for consumer spending on services. Therewere other
modest downgrades to the estimates for business investment inplant &
equipment and exports, although investment in structures was revisedhigher. Also
the core PCE deflator was revised up slightly from 2.1% to 2.2%annualised.
Uni of Michigan
sentiment revised from 73.1 to 70.3. Some of the early September jump in consumer
sentiment was revised away in the final UoM report, mostly likely in response
to the temporary jump in gasoline prices mid month (hence the higher inflation
expectations) and media focus on the latest round of banking sector woes and
the consequent â€ťgrave threatsâ€ť to the broader economy.
consumer prices surprise on the upside. The nationwide headline decelerated
slightly to 2.1%yr in August from 2.3% in July. The ex fresh food measure rose
2.4%yr and the ex fresh food and energy index was flat. For Tokyo, the
September series rose 1.4% on headline, 1.7%yr ex fresh food and 0.5%yr ex fresh
food and energy. The latter outcome compares to a 0.2% pace in August.
inflation continued to subside in September, falling from 3.1% yr to 2.9%
yr, reflecting the decline in energy and more recently food prices over the
past couple of months. Also, in August, import price inflation remained steady
at 9.3% yr, not declining because the lower euro provided some offset to the
lower US$ cost of imported commodities.
NZâ€™s Q2 GDP
confirmed recession, so we wouldnâ€™t get too upbeat despite beating consensus.
AUD/NZD remains a buy on dips, targeting 1.25, where it would probably be
already if active accounts werenâ€™t ultra-cautious over the cash squeeze into
Strategy, 0800 922 239
contributions from Westpac Economics
â€˘ NZ Q2 GDP
Review (26 September)
â€˘ NZ Q3
Consumer Confidence (24 September)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (22 September)
â€˘ NZ Q2
Current Account Review (19 September)
â€˘ NZ Q2 GDP
Preview (18 September)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (15 September)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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