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Forex Blog - Dollar Rallies Big as Banking Troubles Hit Europe and UK

Dollar Rallies Big as Banking Troubles Hit Europe and UK Last Updated 9/29/2008 5:27:46 AM EST (GMT +5)

Dollar Rallies Big as Banking Troubles Hit Europe and UK

Dollar started the week off with a bang as financial crisis spread to Europe with Benelux based Fortis bank receiving an $11 Billion euro injection from Belgium, Dutch and Luxemburg governments in return for 49% stake in the company. Meanwhile in UK the mortgage banker Bradford and Bingley became the second British bank to be nationalized this year as the biggest lender to landlords saw its sources of funding evaporate creating a liquidity crunch.

The turmoil in Europe stood as a sharp contrast to US where Congressional lawmakers appeared to have reached an accord on an historic $700 Billion rescue plan to buy illiquid MBS assets.. The vote on the package is expected take place in the House today and in the Senate on Wednesday. The problems in Europe also highlighted the fact that the credit crisis that has so deeply affected the US financial sector is likely to become a problem for European policy makers as well. If the situation in Europe does not stabilize the pressure on ECB President Jean Claude Trichet to ease monetary policy will likely become immense. The ECB holds its monthly meeting on Thursday, and although market participants expect no change, three days can be a very long time in these turbulent markets and if the European financial sector sees further weakness Mr. Trichet and company may be forced to provide an emergency response.

At present the dollar is receiving the benefit of the doubt in the FX market, with currency traders seeing US policy makers as more proactive.The common wisdom is that the speed of US policy response will ultimately help stabilize the US economy and help it recover while the stubborn insistence on price stability by European monetary officials will exacerbate the recession in Europe and cause more longer term damage. Certainly overnight economic data in EZ continues to confirm the fact that the region remains in an economic funk as Retail PMI continues to slide further below the 50 boom/but level to 46.2 from 47.7 the month prior.

We, however, continue to doubt the premise that the Paulson package will have any stimulative effect on the US economy and believe that a serious slowdown is likely as we approach the end of the year. Under those conditions the greenback may indeed continue to gain against the ailing euro and the pound, but may in fact weaken against the yen as global equity markets decline further and investors begin to perceive Japan – which has been relatively unaffected by the MBS fiasco – as bastion of safety.

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
USD 8:30 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (AUG) 0.2% 0.3%
USD 8:30 12:30 USD Personal Income (AUG) 0.2% -0.7%
USD 8:30 12:30 USD Personal Income (AUG) 0.2% 0.2%

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>


DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




 

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