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Monday September 29, 2008 - 10:32:25 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European Financial Sector under stress

Today 06:20am

European Market Update: European Financial Sector under stress


- (SP) Spain Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.5% v -7.2%e; Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.9% v -6.0% prior

- (SP) Spain Sept Preliminary CPI (EU harmonized) Y/Y: 4.6% v4.7%

- (IT) July Large Company Employee (NSA) Y/Y: -0.3% -0.3% prior.

- (UK) Aug Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 1.4% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 11.5% v 11.5% prior

- (UK) Aug Net Consumer Credit: £1.2B v £1.0Be; Net Lending £0.1B v £2.8Be;

- (UK) Aug Mortgage Approvals: 32K v 30Ke

- (IT) Q2 Unemployment Rate (SA): 6.8% v 6.7%e

- (EU) Sept Business Climate Indicator: -0.79 v -0.50e; Consumer Confidence Indicator: -19 v -19e; Economic Confidence Indicator: 87.7 v 87.3e; Industrial Confidence Indicator:-12 v -12e; Services Confidence Indicator: 0 v 2e


- In equities news overnight: Bradford & Bingley [BB.UK] The UK Treasury issued its formal statement on the company. The Retail business were transferred to Abbey National and Spain's Santander and remainder to be nationalized. || Hypo Real Estate [HRX.GE] German Government and bank provided €35B bailout for Hypo and the bank received its first installment a €14B tranch from banks

German Bundesbank stated that company received liquidity and expected move to secure the company. The Bundesbank stated that it sees a consortium financing solving the problems. German Govt stated that its plan was to take over the company and then sell all or part of company at a later date. TheGovernment would guarantee the 2nd tranch of Hypo bailout.

|| Akzo Nobel [AKZA.NV] Announced its new operational targets, cutting at least 3,500 jobs, halts its buyback program but maintained its 2008 outlook. The CEO noted paint markets are down in UK, US, and emerging markets || Nokia [NOK] Company announced that it along with its Nokia Nokia-Siemens jv signed patent cross-licensing deal with Huawei. || SGS [SGSN.SZ] Purchased Servicos de Automacao PiD in Brazil; terms not disclosed || Morphosys [MOR.GE} Shionogi extended its research agreement with Morphosys. . Under the terms of the agreement, MorphoSys granted Shionogi access to its HuCAL GOLD antibody library for research applications in Shionogi's drug discovery programs. || ThromboGenics [THR.BE] Announced promising results of MITI IV Phase II Trial in the treatment of acute stroke with Microplasmin. || Icap [IAP.UK] Guided its H1 Revenue up20% y/y, It stated that it saw underlying profit well ahead of prior year. The outlook for the business remains positive. Company noted that the current market turmoil will create more opportunities for the profitable development of our business despite parts of our customer base consolidating and continued deleveraging. || Man Financial [EMG.UK] Guided H1 Revenues in the amount of $10B (+25% y/y). Remains strongly positioned for the future It noted that Demand remained very strong . It forecasted net inflows of $4.1B, which is +14% y/y and outflows were $5.0B y/y || Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] TCG.UK: Stated that its current trading environment in the summer of FY08 remained strong and is on track to meet FY08 and FY09 winter performance expectations. It added that summer of 2009 outlook has flexibility in capacity, cost base and fuel hedging to adapt to changing environment. The company stated that it ended merger talks with Condor, Germanwings and Tuifly || Tui Travel [TT.UK] Reported 7-week trading inline with prior guidance and reaffirmed its FY09 expectations. The company noted that although it remained very early in the selling season. || Compass Group [CPG.UK] Issued a trading statement that its saw positive trading through the summer. Its Fiscal Year organic revenue growth comfortably over 5% with trading in North America remained strong.

- Speakers: Japan PM Aso: Will make more stimulus available it becomes necessary || Japan Fin Min Nakagawa: Uncertainty over global outlook is increasing || France's Woerth stated that the Credit crisis has impacted real economy but continued to forecast 2009 deficit below 3%. The economic growth is low and does not have enough momentum to create new jobs and to increase purchasing power. || (UK) British Banking Association's Kngiht stated that the UK banking system remained sound in the wake of the Bradford nationalization. || UK Exchequer Darling stated that the Government would Darling: Government would continue with action to provide stability in the financial markets; UK had to intervene on Bradford & Bingley. He added that there were no immediate plans on compensation schemes relating to Bradford and Bingley and that the government would stand behind the firm. Darling added that risks on bailout is with banks and not with UK taxpayers. Lastly he stressed that the economy would get through the banking crisis. || (UK) Former BOE Buiter stated that the Fortis bailout bodes well for future situations. He noted that the US bailout package buys some time ,but is not a solution. The US needs a toxic asset dump. || (SZ) KOF Institute lowered its view on Swiss GDP. It cut the 2008 growth to 1.9% from 2.0% prior and slashing 2009 GDP view to 0.3% from 1.8% prior

- In Currencies: The USD exhibited sharp gains against the European currencies in the aftermath of the Fortis and Hypo bailouts and the Icelandic Government stake in Glitnir Bank. The USD maintained a 'safe-haven status in the session. EUR/USD down 200+ pips at 1.4330 while GBP/USD dropped 300+ pips to 1.7995. European currencies are also weaker against carry related pairs. EUR/JPY off 230+ pips at 152.20; GBP/JPY lower by 340 pips at 191.30. EUR/CHF down 1.5860, down 30 pips in the session. Dealers also cite concern that the ECB remains too focused on inflation while the growth engine stall inside Europe.

- In Energy: IEA's Tanaka stated that oil output capacity would improve in 2009-10 period. He Noted that There is not enough investments in boosting oil output capacity and that would cause output capacity to be insufficient after 2013. the current credit crisis has a troubling effect on oil prices. || WSJ reported that China city of Beijing planed to keep 1/3 of the local government's vehicles off its roads and impose restrictions on other cars in a move cited to improve air quality

- In Fixed Income: The credit crisis continues to be reflected in spreads. The Italian BTP/Bund spread expanded to 88bps, the widest since the launch of the Euro in 1999; while Belgian Bond/Bund spread hit a record 61bps. The Dec Bunds spiked to session highs of 114.82 as pressured mounted on Europe banking shares. Traders reported decent amount of stop loss orders going through Dec Bunds futures as it traded up 85 ticks at 114.66. || (SW) Swedish Debt Office: proposed no change in proportion of central governmentt debt

- Other notable: European Chemicals stocks cut to "Underweight" from "Neutral" at Merrill Lynch ||(SZ) SNB sold 250 tons of gold; total holdings at 1,040 tons || - Macquarie lowers its 2008 and 2009 industrial metals outlook.

- European equities: Equity bourses are extending losses on Monday with banking stocks dominating the move lower after troubles at Fortis and Bradford & Bingley. Dexia and Commerzbank are notable decliners CAC-30 is down 148 pts, DAX off 178 pts and FTSE-100 is down 140pts.

*** NOTES ***

It is all about financial stress in today's session. The U.S. House Republicans are expected to vote today on the $700B U.S. financial bailout package with the Senate to vote later in the week. Initial market perception labels the deal as “watered-down”. Whatever the case following this bailout passage, additional measures likely may still be required to get the money markets function again. The focus is now turning to potential banking problems in Continental Europe. The risk-aversion theme continues to dominate the trading. Crude oil is lower as it trades in tandem with the stronger USD. Gold is steady. The Nikkei closed lower today The Shanghai market will be closed all next week for the Golden week holidays.

- looking ahead

- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: Consensus expectations are 0.07%; The prior number is -0.32%.

- 8:30 (US) Aug Personal Income: Consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number is -0.7%. Personal Spending: Consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number is 0.2%.

- 8:30 (US) Aug PCE Deflator Y/Y: Consensus expectations are 4.5%; The prior number is 4.5%.

- 8:30 (US) Aug PCE Core M/M: Consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number is 0.3%. Y/Y: Consensus expectations are 2.4%; The prior number is 2.4%.



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