- (IT) July Large Company Employee (NSA) Y/Y: -0.3% -0.3% prior.
- (UK) Aug Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 1.4% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 11.5% v 11.5%
- (UK) Aug Net Consumer Credit: ¬£1.2B v ¬£1.0Be; Net Lending ¬£0.1B v ¬£2.8Be;
- (UK) Aug Mortgage Approvals: 32K v 30Ke
- (IT) Q2 Unemployment Rate (SA): 6.8% v 6.7%e
- (EU) Sept Business Climate Indicator: -0.79 v -0.50e; Consumer Confidence
Indicator: -19 v -19e; Economic Confidence Indicator: 87.7 v 87.3e; Industrial
Confidence Indicator:-12 v -12e; Services Confidence Indicator: 0 v 2e
- In equities news overnight: Bradford & Bingley [BB.UK] The UK Treasury
issued its formal statement on the company. The Retail business were
transferred to Abbey National and Spain's
Santander and remainder to be nationalized. || Hypo Real Estate [HRX.GE] German
Government and bank provided ‚ā¨35B bailout for Hypo and the bank received its
first installment a ‚ā¨14B tranch from banks
German Bundesbank stated that company received liquidity and expected move to
secure the company. The Bundesbank stated that it sees a consortium financing
solving the problems. German Govt stated that its plan was to take over the
company and then sell all or part of company at a later date. TheGovernment
would guarantee the 2nd tranch of Hypo bailout.
|| Akzo Nobel [AKZA.NV] Announced its new operational targets, cutting at least
3,500 jobs, halts its buyback program but maintained its 2008 outlook. The CEO
noted paint markets are down in UK, US, and emerging markets || Nokia [NOK]
Company announced that it along with its Nokia Nokia-Siemens jv signed patent
cross-licensing deal with Huawei. || SGS [SGSN.SZ] Purchased Servicos de
Automacao PiD in Brazil;
terms not disclosed || Morphosys [MOR.GE} Shionogi extended its research
agreement with Morphosys. . Under the terms of the agreement, MorphoSys granted
Shionogi access to its HuCAL GOLD antibody library for research applications in
Shionogi's drug discovery programs. || ThromboGenics [THR.BE] Announced
promising results of MITI IV Phase II Trial in the treatment of acute stroke
with Microplasmin. || Icap [IAP.UK] Guided its H1 Revenue up20% y/y, It stated
that it saw underlying profit well ahead of prior year. The outlook for the
business remains positive. Company noted that the current market turmoil will
create more opportunities for the profitable development of our business
despite parts of our customer base consolidating and continued deleveraging. ||
Man Financial [EMG.UK] Guided H1 Revenues in the amount of $10B (+25% y/y).
Remains strongly positioned for the future It noted that Demand remained very
strong . It forecasted net inflows of $4.1B, which is +14% y/y and outflows
were $5.0B y/y || Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] TCG.UK: Stated that its current trading
environment in the summer of FY08 remained strong and is on track to meet FY08
and FY09 winter performance expectations. It added that summer of 2009 outlook
has flexibility in capacity, cost base and fuel hedging to adapt to changing
environment. The company stated that it ended merger talks with Condor,
Germanwings and Tuifly || Tui Travel [TT.UK] Reported 7-week trading inline
with prior guidance and reaffirmed its FY09 expectations. The company noted
that although it remained very early in the selling season. || Compass Group
[CPG.UK] Issued a trading statement that its saw positive trading through the
summer. Its Fiscal Year organic revenue growth comfortably over 5% with trading
in North America remained strong.
- Speakers: Japan
PM Aso: Will make more stimulus available it becomes necessary || Japan Fin Min
Nakagawa: Uncertainty over global outlook is increasing || France's
Woerth stated that the Credit crisis has impacted real economy but continued to
forecast 2009 deficit below 3%. The economic growth is low and does not have
enough momentum to create new jobs and to increase purchasing power. || (UK)
British Banking Association's Kngiht stated that the UK
banking system remained sound in the wake of the Bradford
nationalization. || UK Exchequer Darling stated that the Government would
Darling: Government would continue with action to provide stability in the
financial markets; UK
had to intervene on Bradford & Bingley. He added that there were no
immediate plans on compensation schemes relating to Bradford and Bingley and
that the government would stand behind the firm. Darling added that risks on
bailout is with banks and not with UK
taxpayers. Lastly he stressed that the economy would get through the banking
crisis. || (UK)
Former BOE Buiter stated that the Fortis bailout bodes well for future
situations. He noted that the US
bailout package buys some time ,but is not a solution. The US
needs a toxic asset dump. || (SZ) KOF Institute lowered its view on Swiss GDP.
It cut the 2008 growth to 1.9% from 2.0% prior and slashing 2009 GDP view to
0.3% from 1.8% prior
- In Currencies: The USD exhibited sharp gains against the European currencies
in the aftermath of the Fortis and Hypo bailouts and the Icelandic Government
stake in Glitnir Bank. The USD maintained a 'safe-haven status in the session.
EUR/USD down 200+ pips at 1.4330 while GBP/USD dropped 300+ pips to 1.7995.
European currencies are also weaker against carry related pairs. EUR/JPY off
230+ pips at 152.20; GBP/JPY lower by 340 pips at 191.30. EUR/CHF down 1.5860,
down 30 pips in the session. Dealers also cite concern that the ECB remains too
focused on inflation while the growth engine stall inside Europe.
- In Energy: IEA's Tanaka stated that oil output capacity would improve in
2009-10 period. He Noted that There is not enough investments in boosting oil
output capacity and that would cause output capacity to be insufficient after
2013. the current credit crisis has a troubling effect on oil prices. || WSJ
reported that China
city of Beijing planed to keep 1/3
of the local government's vehicles off its roads and impose restrictions on
other cars in a move cited to improve air quality
- In Fixed Income: The credit crisis continues to be reflected in spreads. The
Italian BTP/Bund spread expanded to 88bps, the widest since the launch of the
Euro in 1999; while Belgian Bond/Bund spread hit a record 61bps. The Dec Bunds
spiked to session highs of 114.82 as pressured mounted on Europe
banking shares. Traders reported decent amount of stop loss orders going
through Dec Bunds futures as it traded up 85 ticks at 114.66. || (SW) Swedish
Debt Office: proposed no change in proportion of central governmentt debt
- Other notable: European Chemicals stocks cut to "Underweight" from
"Neutral" at Merrill Lynch ||(SZ) SNB sold 250 tons of gold; total
holdings at 1,040 tons || - Macquarie lowers its 2008 and 2009 industrial
- European equities: Equity bourses are extending losses on Monday with banking
stocks dominating the move lower after troubles at Fortis and Bradford &
Bingley. Dexia and Commerzbank are notable decliners CAC-30 is down 148 pts,
DAX off 178 pts and FTSE-100 is down 140pts.
*** NOTES ***
It is all about financial stress in today's session. The U.S. House Republicans
are expected to vote today on the $700B U.S.
financial bailout package with the Senate to vote later in the week. Initial
market perception labels the deal as ‚Äúwatered-down‚ÄĚ. Whatever the case
following this bailout passage, additional measures likely may still be
required to get the money markets function again. The focus is now turning to
potential banking problems in Continental Europe. The risk-aversion theme
continues to dominate the trading. Crude oil is lower as it trades in tandem
with the stronger USD. Gold is steady. The Nikkei closed lower today The Shanghai
market will be closed all next week for the Golden week holidays.
- looking ahead
- (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation
IGP-M M/M: Consensus expectations are 0.07%; The prior number is -0.32%.
- 8:30 (US) Aug
Personal Income: Consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number is -0.7%.
Personal Spending: Consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number is 0.2%.
- 8:30 (US) Aug
PCE Deflator Y/Y: Consensus expectations are 4.5%; The prior number is 4.5%.
- 8:30 (US) Aug
PCE Core M/M: Consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number is 0.3%. Y/Y:
Consensus expectations are 2.4%; The prior number is 2.4%.
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