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Monday September 29, 2008 - 12:11:47 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 29-Sep-2008 -1208 GMTEURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1034/38... Tested 1.1088
R: 1.1090-1100 / 1.1150 / 1.12 / 1.1265
S: 1.1035 / 1.1000 / 1.0950-35 / 1.0900
Over the weekend, the $700-bln bailout has been approved, after further discussion and with no better plan to execute, and is to be executed in three parts.
A sharp dollar rise has been seen since then. To add fuel to the fire, few European banks are reported to be on the verge of going bust and have received support from the respective governments in order to survive the crisis. Bradford & Bingley Plc, Fortis, and Hypo Real Estate Holding AG have received aids from the European governments as tremors from the U.S. credit crisis are felt over the world.
Over the day Swissy has seen a sharp rise, as high as 1.1088, where it faces some Resistance. The day ahead might not see a huge move further higher from here on. On the downside the pair has a steady Support at 1.1035 which if continues to hold, might lead to a rise in the pair during the US session to test Resistance at 1.1088 again.
A break below the 1.1035 Support would bring the more important Support at 1.10 into the picture.
GBP-USD @ 1.8028/32... Could slip towards 1.78 this week
R: 1.8050 / 1.8100 / 1.8150 / 1.8175
S: 1.8000 / 1.7965-50 / 1.7900 / 1.7875-50
First day of the week has seen a 486-pip dip in the pair in the day. If this was not enough, the US session sees the Core PCE and Personal Income data releases, which could attract further volatility.
The pair has seen a small bounce to trade above 1.80. The week ahead could see the pair remain pressured lower towards 1.78, unless a rise past 1.82 is seen. To see the chart click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml
AUD-USD @ 0.8143/46... Could slip towards
R: 0.8165 / 0.8185-90 / 0.8230 / 0.8280
S: 0.8120-00 / 0.8075 / 0.8050-35 / 0.8000
Aussie has also slipped lower this morning, after the dollar pulled off a remarkable recovery.
The day saw the pair weakening from 0.8353 to the current level, which is close to the dayâ€™s low. From here there not much Support for the pair. 0.8132, the Max low for the day, could provide some today. Overall the pair could weaken further from here, and slip towards 0.80, the bigger and more important Support.
To see the chart click on: http://kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml
The day ahead could see some more volatility if the US Personal Income and Core PCE Price index is released. To follow the economic data click on: http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usperinc.shtml
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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