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Tuesday September 30, 2008 - 11:17:31 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Sense of calm returns; European equities recover from opening level lows; Carry-trades in focus

Today 05:56am

European Market Update: Sense of calm returns; European equities recover from opening level lows; Carry-trades in focus

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (JP) Aug Housing Starts Y/Y: 53.6% v 49.8%e; Annualized Housing Starts: 1.13M v 1.092Me

- (JP) Aug Construction Orders Y/Y: T-0.3% v 42.3% prior.

- (JP) Sept Small Business Confidence: 40.2 v 41.5e

- (GE) Aug ILO Unemployment Rate: % v 7.3%e;

- (FR) Aug Producer Prices M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.9% v 6.8%e

- 2:45 (FR) Aug Housing Starts 3M Y/Y Change: -13.1% v -9.8%e; Housing Permits 3M Y/Y Change: -19.6% v -17.2%e

- (DE) Denmark Q2 Final GDP (SA) Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.6%e; Y/Y0.9% v 1.2%e

- (SP) Spain July Current Account: -€7.4B v -€8.5B.

- (SW) Sweden Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v -0.5%e; Y/Y2.9% v 1.7%e

- (GE) Sept Unemployment Change (000's): -29K v -15Ke; Unemployment Rate (SA): 7.6% v 7.6%

- (IT) Aug PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 8.2% v 7.7%e

- (NO) Norway Retail Sales M/M: 0.6% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v2.2%e;

- (SZ) Swiss Aug UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.618 v 1.848 prior.

- 4:30 (UK) Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e

- (UK) Q2 Current Account (BP): -£11.0B v -£9.7Be

- (UK) Q2 Final Total Business Investment Q/Q: -1.0% v -1.9%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v1.9%e

- (IT) Sept Preliminary CPI (NIC inc. tobacco) M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.0%e

- (IT) Sept Preliminary CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 4.1%e

- (EU) Sept Euro-Zone CPI Estimate Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight, the Belgian and French governments committed to taking equity stakes in Dexia [DEXB.BE] worth a total of €6.4B, at €9.9/shr. || Tesco [TSCO.UK] reported H1 revenues of £25.6B compared to £25.8B y/y, UK same-store sales +4.0% (ex gas) and a loss at the US unit. The CEO noted he expects a full year loss at the firm's US unit to be around £100M and 1H profits before tax of £1.45B || Unicredit [UCG.IT] said it doesn't require additional funding, noting it has sufficient liquidity including short-term funding 10 times higher than requirements. || Volvo [VOLVB.SW] said its truck unit would lower capacity in Europe and cut 1,400 jobs. The company cited slowing demand and rising raw material costs for the move. || Novartis [NOVN.SZ] announced its bone drug Aclast has obtained EU approval for use in men. || Hypo Real Estate [HRX.GE] said it would not wind down operations but would reduce assets by €50B with orderly disposition (without any time limits). The company also insisted that government statements have been misinterpreted by the media. || CGG Vertias [GA.FR] announced an extension of High Channel Count contract by Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) the company would undertake a high-productivity high-density onshore seismic acquisition project in Oman. Fresenius [FRE.GE] Increased its syndicated credit facilities by $500M for its APP acquisition. || Ipsen [IPN.FR] FDA's first-cycle review of Dysport to be completed by year-end || Babcock Intl Group [BAB.UK] stated that Trading remained inline with prior expectations, sees pipeline remaining strong || Intertek [ITRK.UK] Purchased HP White from its management shareholders for $36.9M || Enterprise inns [ETI.UK] stated that its trading conditions remained difficult. It Guided H2 EBITDA inline with H1, like-for-like sales -5% y/y, FY like-for-like sales -3% y/y. Trading conditions have, as expected, remained difficult during the second half of the year, with on-trade beer volumes reflecting the adverse impact of the smoking ban, a poor summer and, above all, continuing weakness in consumer spending. || Chloride [CHLD.UK] Stated that its H1 was in line with prior expectations. sales and operating profit were significantly ahead of last year, with strong growth in service revenues demonstrating the value of our total solutions approach to our customers. Order intake was ahead of sales, resulting in a record order book at the period end. The Company continues to experience positive momentum both in its core European market and in emerging economies. || Quintain [QED.UK] Stated that its exposure to housing market is limited and made progress with regards to capital preservations, to repatriate £100M by the end of FY08 || Qinetiq [QQ.UK] Provided atrading statement noting that trading is inline with forecasts and its restructuring program is completed ahead of budget and deadline || Antisoma [ASM.UK] began its phase II trial of AS1402 in breast cancer. || Game Group [GMG.UK] Reported H1 Pretax profit £33.4M compared to £1.3M year ago levels.; Op Profit £39M v £6.2M y/y; Revenues were £743.4M versus £482.4M y/y and its gross margin 27% compared to 25.8% y/y. the company cited that due to a strong performance to date and positive outlook, it has raised guidance for the Group's full year LFL sales performance from 5-10% to 8-12%.

- Speakers: ECB's Noyer stated that Monday' rejection of the US bailout plan was "bad news" but he expressed confident that solution will be found. || ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo: Financial market turmoil has intensified and noted that interbank market remains “frozen”. The member noted that Authorities will act as necessary and its top priority remains bringing liquidity back to the markets. Central Bank liquidity operations have lowered markets volatility and would continue. Present financial market crisis showed that global liquidity flows could become seriously impaired. However. He believed that markets would calm down in 2009. Lastly the ECB flexibility stance has been well implemented || Korean Central Bank stated that its main objective is to maintain price stability and added that it would take action to stabilize its financial markets. The central bank added that it would consider economic risks and inflationary pressures when setting its monetary policy. It does see inflation and economic slowdown more pronounced in H2 but that the global slowdown would have a negative risks on export growth. || India Fin Min noted that despite the current global turmoil within the financial markets, India remained more or less insulated at this time. The official added that economic fundamentals remained strong. || Taiwan President Ma -Ying-Jeou: Economic fundamentals remain strong and can withstand global financial crisis || Spain Econ Min Solbes forecasted GDP growth in H2 likely to remain flat and stated that 2009 GDP growth is seen around 1.6%

- In Currencies: The JPY and CHF retraced some of their gains achieved from Monday's session when equity markets encountered some turbulence following the failure of the US House of Representative to pas the financial bailout package. However, some confidence was 'restored' when the Irish Government noted that it would guarantee arrangement to safeguard bank deposits in which the scheme would cover all deposits, covered bonds, senior debt and dated subordinated debt. EUR/JPY back above the 151 handle after testing the 149.00 level in Asia. EUR/CHF firmer by 75 pips at the 1.5800 area. EUR/USD is little changed at 1.4370. A Citigroup Analyst stated that perhaps European central banks could enact emergency rate if Fed lowered its interest rates this week.

- In Energy: Nov NYMEX crude rebounded by $2.50/barrel during the European morning to approach the 99 level after testing $93.30 area on the open. || Japan Aug oil product domestic sales -11.8% y/y. Overall product output fell 2.8% on year to 18.60Mkiloliters during August

- There was no Fixed Income Supply in today's European session

- Credit Crisis: Russian watchdog announced a new ban unsecured short selling. || India Central Bank noted that ICICI bank [ICICIBC.IN] has enough liquidity to meet deposit requirements and added that its main bank and subsidiaries are well capitalized. || Irish Government announced that it would guarantee all deposits held at Irish banks and also guaranteed dated subordinated debt. || in the UK, PM Brown, Chancellor Darling and BoE Governor have met and discussed the current financial situation, but noting it was a “scheduled meeting”. || Hong Kong Fin Min stated that the HK Central Bank planned measures to provide additional liquidity to HK Banks.

*** NOTES ***

In the wake of the defeat of the US financial bailout bill, European politicians are planning to meet to discuss its game plan and possible actions to try to avert a similar crisis in the Euro-zone. French President Sarkozy has called for an EU summit on the financial crisis today. UK PM Brown noted that its Government would work its central bank. And act as necessary. The European equity market regained a sense of composure after Irish officials announced a guarantee arrangement to safeguard bank deposits. Dealers also noting that perhaps US lawmakers intend to salvage to $700B bank-rescue package. Yesterdays' US equity market plunge showed the potential dangers of the implications of political inaction. The Hang Seng managed to end its session in positive territory. Some constructive data out of Europe also brought a sense that it is not all gloom and doom. Swedish retail sales for August was above market expectations and the UK GDP YoY was a touch better. Quarter end liquidity needs continue to surface. The ECB allotted $30 in its 1-day auction at a rate if 11.0%.

Looking ahead

- 8:30 (CA) Aug Industrial Product Price Index: MoM expected at -0.3% v 0.4% prior; Raw Material Price index MoM expected at -4.0% v 1.4% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Jul GDP MoM expected at 0.2% v 0.1% prior

- 9:00 (US) S&P case Shller Home price Index expected at 166.9 v 167.7 prior; Composite-20 YoY expected at -16.0% v -15.9% prior

- 9:45 (US) Sept Chicago Purchasing Manager expected 53.0 v 57.9 prior

- 10:00 (US) Sept Consumer Confidence expected at 55.0 v 56.9 prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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