News: UBS[UBSN.SZ] Guided 2009 as an overall profitable year; and added
that it saw a "small profit" for Q3 compared to analyst estimates of
CHF547Me. UBS stated it has completed its strategic review. The bank
noted that it has substantially reduced its US commercial and
residential mortgage-related positions, mainly through disposals.
Lastly the bank said it would maintain adequate liquidity. ||
Heidelberger Druck [HDD.GE] Guided it Q2 Revenues in a range of
â‚¬800M-â‚¬820M compared to current analyst estimates of â‚¬838Me. The
company expected an operating loss in Q2 and see sales decline of 10%
y/y. Restructuring costs caused by the comprehensive package of
measures in Q2 would amount to up to â‚¬20M. Its Q2 Free cash-flow seen
in a range of -â‚¬70M to -â‚¬90M mostly due to the lower sales volume.
Lastly the company signed a collective labor agreement may lead to
further provisions of up to â‚¬30M. || Fortis FORB.BE: HK's Ping An
stated that it would terminated its agreement to purchase Fortis Asset
Management unit. Ping Am noted that talks have ended at this time and
that not all conditions could be satisfied. Ping Am noted that
termination will not impact business or finances and is reportedly to
maintain its stake in Fortis.
|| Volkswagon [VOW.GE] CEO
stated that he remained cautious on its 2009 outlook and to ask US
government for subsidized loans. || Wolfson [WLF.UK] Guided its Q3
Revenues in a range of $56-$62M v $63.2Me and its Gross Margin at 50%
to 51%. It also lowered it Q4 Revenue guidance to $45M-50M compared to
$58.90M estimates citing the to financial crisis || DSM [DSM.NV] To
Close its Clavulanic Acid production site in Sweden by end of 2009
which would cut 100 jobs. It expected an Q4 aftertax charge of â‚¬10M. ||
Aberdeen Asset Management [ADN.UK] Mitsubishi UFJ to acquire 9.9% stake
in the company . Under the terms of the capital alliance, MUTB intends
initially to acquire 9.9% could purchase further shares up to an agreed
maximum aggregate shareholding of 19.9%. || Solarworld [SWV.GE] to
Create a 30MW Solar Park in Spain with a Deutsche Bank consortium.
Marks & Spencer [MKS.UK] Reported 13 week UK like-for-like sales
down 6.1% compared to analyst estimates of -7.0%e. Company guided its
FY CAPEX growth in a range of 4%-5% versus 7% prior guidance. Company
acknowledged that consumer confidence remained fragile and the retail
environment unpredictable and added that consumers are increasingly
cautious about their budgets. || Dexia [DEXB.BE] CNP assured it would
participate in the bank's planned capital increase and would increase
stake to around 3%. || Peugeot [UG.FR] CEO noted that the carmaker had
â‚¬2B in savings during past 18 months and he maintains its outlook
noting that should meet profit-margin goals. || Ford [F] CEO stated
that 2009 would be no better than this current year. He added that he
does not see any recovery until 2010. BMW [BMW.GE] CEO saw no recovery
in auto markets until second half of 2009. he added that next year
would be a tough year for the industry. The company plans to request
subsidized loans from the US government.
confirmed an emergency weekend summit with Germany, Italy, UK to
discuss the current financial crisis || Swiss SECO Government raised
2008 cpi to 2.6% from 2.5% prior view. SECO maintained its GDP view at
1.9% from its prior forecast made back in June. The Gov't noted that
risks to its 2009 economic growth forecasts have increased. It sees
2009 inflation ay 1.3% . The 2008 jobless rate seen at 2.5% and at 2.7%
in 2009. || (SZ) SNB noted in its monetary report that the economic
slowdown is likely to continue in near future. The SNB noted that it
continues to monitor developments in both theoil and financial markets
and would act appropriately to circumstances. || EU's Juncker expressed
relief at US Senate approval of relief package. || (KS) Korea Fin Min
Kang stated that now is not to time to be concerned about FX reserves,
but to use them appropriately. He noted that it is appropriate to use
forex reserves during times like these. S. Korea would spend $5B to
help small businesses. || Japan Vice Fin Min Sugimoto noted that the
MoF remained in close contact with other countries. He noted that the
financial crisis was spreading faster than expected.
Currencies: EUR/USD fell to 1-year lows at 1.3856 and approached it
6-year uptrend line at the 1.3810 area. The JPY maintained a firmer
tone against both major currencies and commodity related pairs on
continued risk aversion plays. There are over two dozen eew Toshin
funds to be launched during the month of Oct. However, launching is
only one aspect of the equation where finding subscriptions could be an
entirely different issue. EUR/JPY fell to 2-year lows below the 146.30
area. Fortis Analyst revised their ECB interest rate forecast and now
expects ECB to lower the rates in January and March of 2009. Their
prior view was for the ECB to hold rates steady at 4.25% through 2009.
In Energy: Reportedly the Chanomi creek pipeline in Nigeria has
ruptured and this could close the Warri refinery (capacity of 125K
bpd). The Warri refinery has enough oil for 3 days. No group has
claimed attack that caused the pipeline rupture. || Merrill Lynch
lowers 2009 oil price target 16% to $90 || Nov NYMEX crude was lower by
$1 to test 97.50 area. Softer global demand again cited for the softer
tone in the commodity.
Credit Crisis: France confirmed the weekend summit plans with Germany,
Italy, UK to discuss financial crisis. ECB's Trichet and EU's Juncker
would attend the meeting on Saturday, Oct 4th || The BOE quarterly
credit conditions survey highlighted the recent stress exhibit. In a
survey conducted between Aug. 26 and Sept. 17, the demand for mortgages
fell sharply in Q3 with a further drop expected in Q4. the survey noted
that corporate lending spreads widened more than expected and added
that further credit contraction was expected. The BOE noted that the
demand for secured loans have slowed dramatically while unsecured
Household lending defaults higher than expected. Unsecured household
credit availabilty fell to its lowest reading on record to -27.5 from
its prior -24 level. Spain Economic Minister noted that his country
would support a coordinated EU effort to raise deposit guarantees
Metals: Goldman Sachs Analyst updated its 2009 metal prices forecasts.
It raised its Gold estimate by 9% to 876/oz; lowered Platinum estimate
by 9% to 1,782/oz; lowered its Palladium estimate by 4% to $350/oz;
lowered its Rhodium estimate by19% to $7,250/oz; lowered its Nickel
estimate by 10% $18,734/to and lowered its Zinc estimate -9% to
*** NOTES ***
- Stress levels continue to rise
in Europe and the recent spat of economic data is not providing any
comfort. Dealers noting that early indication of the TED spread was the
451 bps level compared to 320bps yesterday. Some dealers noted that US
Senator Reed's comments about an insurer near bust has the market
guessing exactly who.
- The Paris auto show is not appearing
to be any love fest. numerous auto makers express a cautious outlook on
the 2009 market. Most auto CEOs did express some optimism on a
potential rebound in the industry but not until 2010.
European equity markets in positive territory help by the passage of
the US financial market bailout plan by the Senate. The House vote is
expected to come on Friday. Dealers are noting that the outcome of the
House vote is not all certain. The market remains tad skeptical of
exactly how the US Gov't is to value the toxic instruments.
focus this morning will be on the ECB. The market believes that there
is little doubt the central bank made a mistake back in July when it
tightened policy. The ECB obsession with inflation over economic growth
is now a key cause for concern. Thus while the European economy slows
the ECB will fiddle around and maintain its steady policy with rates at
4.25%. Last week market chatter of a potential coordinated G7 interest
rate cut would be the first of the potential â€śOctober surprisesâ€ť.
-7:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations are for interest rates to remain steady at 4.25%
(US) Initial Jobless Claims: Consensus expectations are 475K; The prior
number was 493K.; Continuing Jobless Claims: Consensus expectations are
3.550M; The prior number was 3.542M.
- 09:00 (US) July RPX
Composite 28dy Index. There are no expectations; The prior number was
230.00, Y/Y: There are no consensus expectations; The prior number is
- 10:00 (US) Aug Factory Orders: Expected at -3.0% v 1.3% prior
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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