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Thursday October 2, 2008 - 17:01:25 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (2 October 2008)

The euro fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3745 level and was capped around the $1.4030 level.  The common currency reached its lowest level since September 2007 as traders reacted to news that the U.S. Senate approved a US$ 700 billion to bail out the troubled U.S. financial system. A similar vote could come in the U.S. House of Representatives tonight or tomorrow.  European Union officials rejected talk of an EU bailout plan saying there was no need for one.  Several EU leaders will convene in Paris on Saturday.  Data released in the U.S. today saw August factory orders fall 4%m the sharpest contraction since October 2006, while the ex-transportation component was off 3.3% and non-defense, ex-aircraft capital orders were off 2.4%.  Other data saw weekly initial jobless claims rise 1,000 to 497,000 while continuing jobless claims rose 48,000 to 3.591 million.  U.S. interest rates futures are discounting about a 70% chance the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 50bps later this month.  The Wall Street Journal reported Fed officials are contemplating a rate cut even if the bailout package passes Congress.  As expected, the European Central Bank kept its main refinancing rate target unchanged at 4.25% today but many dealers believe the ECB will soon lower rates.  Trichet reported inflation pressures have lessened but remain an economic threat.  Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-15 August producer price inflation moderate. Three-month interbank rates hit a yearly high at 5.355% today, evidencing the ongoing strains in the money market.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3320 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥105.10 level and was capped around the ¥106.30 level.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the September monetary base climb 0.9% y/y. Prime Minister Aso said the government will work closely with Bank of Japan to maintain financial stability.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.88% to close at ¥11,154.76.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥102.45 level.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥144.85 level and was capped around the ¥148.70 level. The British pound and Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥184.80 and ¥92.30 levels, respectively.

The British pound came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.7550 level and was capped around the $1.7725 level.  Data released in the U.K. today saw Nationwide house prices register their largest decline in seventeen years, off 1.7% m/m in September.  Bank of England’s quarterly credit conditions survey worsened again in Q3 and confirmed that British banks are likely to tighten credit to households and businesses further.  Also, the September U.K. construction sector shrank and ISD pay deals rose in the three months to August.  Cable bids are cited around the $1.7420 level.   The euro slumped vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7825 level and was capped  around the ₤0.7920 level.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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